dkf
dkf's JournalOkay I am confused. How does the unemployment rate go down from 8.1 to 7.8 on
873,000 in the one survey but reflect 114,000 jobs in September in another survey?
I was thinking maybe the revisions to July and August actually meant the 8.1% was lower but no these are two different reports so there is no revision to last months 8.1%.
Does that mean the 114,000 September number is way understated?
Okay I think I figured it out:
The numbers aren't fudged...apparently it's normal for the labor force numbers to "bounce violently"
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021478739
Why Do The Jobs Numbers Change?
The Labor Department revised the number of jobs added in July up by 40,000 jobs and the number of jobs added in August up by 46,000. These revisions have some people asking questions about the way the Bureau of Labor Statistics measures employment.
Here's a breakdown: the numbers in the monthly jobs report come from two places the household survey and the establishment survey. The household survey is used to calculate the unemployment rate and the establishment survey is used to calculate how many jobs the economy gained or lost the previous month.
The household survey data comes from Census Bureau workers going to people's homes and asking them if they are working, if they are looking for work, etc. The establishment survey comes from the BLS contacting businesses and government agencies and asking them about the total number of employees they have, how many hours they've worked, etc. The BLS can't talk to every single person or every single business so they talk to a significant number of each, about 140,000 businesses and government agencies and 60,000 households, and they use that data to calculate the job situation for the entire economy.
The revisions in the latest jobs report come from the establishment survey, and the reason they happen is that the BLS doesn't have all the information at the time the numbers are calculated. The BLS gives businesses and government agencies a deadline to submit their data but not everyone makes it. The information that comes in after the cut off date is what causes the revisions. BLS economist Megan Barker explained it to me this way:
After the press release, we are continuing to get more data so that can cause slight movements in what is showing as employment change over the month. We do have a second and a third revision to all of our data.
http://m.npr.org/story/162361522?url=/blogs/money/2012/10/05/162361522/why-do-the-jobs-numbers-change
September jobs report: Why the drop to 7.8% unemployment is genuinely good news
The real upbeat part was in the data revisions. As it turns out, those lackluster months of July and August were better than we thought. The agency now says that the U.S. economy added 181,000 jobs in July, rather than 141,000. And it says that the economy added 142,000 jobs in August, rather than a mere 96,000. That’s still a middling recovery. At this pace, it will take more than a decade to get back to full employment. But at least the economy wasn’t slowing down over the summer.
BLS also publishes the household survey, which asks individuals about their employment situation and is used to calculate the official unemployment rate. And these numbers were exceptionally strong this month. The household survey said that there were 873,000 more employed Americans in September than their were in July. That’s a massive boost, and explains why the unemployment rate dropped to 7.8 percent.
The employment-to-population ratio increased by 0.4 percentage points to 58.7 percent. That’s also an encouraging sign. In the past, the unemployment rate has fallen mainly because more people were giving up on searching for work and dropping out of the labor force. Not this time. The improvement appears to be real.
So what explains the huge surge in employment? Much of the jump seems to be driven by part-time workers--there are 582,000 more people with part-time jobs this month than last.
Before anyone gets overly ecstatic at the jobs situation, let’s throw in a few crucial notes of caution. There are still 12.1 million people without jobs and an additional 2.5 million people who would like jobs but have given up looking. Within that group, there are still 4.8 million people who have been out of work for at least 27 weeks. The labor market is still very, very far from healthy.
http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/05/september-jobs-report-why-the-drop-to-7-8-unemployment-is-genuinely-good-news/
New Rules
I JUST arrived in Shanghai, but I’m thinking about Estonia and wondering about something Presidents Clinton and Obama have been saying.
Wired magazine reported last week that public schools in Estonia are establishing a program for teaching first graders — and kids in all other grades — how to do computer programming. Wired said that the curriculum was created “because of the difficulty Estonian companies face in hiring programmers. Estonia has a burgeoning tech industry thanks in part to the success of Skype, which was developed in Estonia in 2003.”
The news from Estonia prompted The Guardian newspaper of London to publish an online poll asking its readers: “Children aged 7 to 16 are being given the opportunity to learn how to code in schools in Estonia, should U.K. school children be taught programming as part of their school day?” It’s fascinating to read about all this while visiting Shanghai, whose public school system in 2010 beat the rest of the world in math, science and reading in the global PISA exam of 15-year-olds. Will the Chinese respond by teaching programming to preschoolers?
All of this made me think Obama should stop using the phrase — first minted by Bill Clinton in 1992 — that if you just “work hard and play by the rules” you should expect that the American system will deliver you a decent life and a chance for your children to have a better one. That mantra really resonates with me and, I am sure, with many voters. There is just one problem: It’s out of date.
The truth is, if you want a decent job that will lead to a decent life today you have to work harder, regularly reinvent yourself, obtain at least some form of postsecondary education, make sure that you’re engaged in lifelong learning and play by the rules. That’s not a bumper sticker, but we terribly mislead people by saying otherwise.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/09/opinion/sunday/friedman-new-rules.html
Glut of Solar Panels Poses a New Threat to China
BEIJING — China in recent years established global dominance in renewable energy, its solar panel and wind turbine factories forcing many foreign rivals out of business and its policy makers hailed by environmentalists around the world as visionaries
But now China’s strategy is in disarray. Though worldwide demand for solar panels and wind turbines has grown rapidly over the last five years, China’s manufacturing capacity has soared even faster, creating enormous oversupply and a ferocious price war.
The result is a looming financial disaster, not only for manufacturers but for state-owned banks that financed factories with approximately $18 billion in low-rate loans and for municipal and provincial governments that provided loan guarantees and sold manufacturers valuable land at deeply discounted prices.
China’s biggest solar panel makers are suffering losses of up to $1 for every $3 of sales this year, as panel prices have fallen by three-fourths since 2008. Even though the cost of solar power has fallen, it still remains triple the price of coal-generated power in China, requiring substantial subsidies through a tax imposed on industrial users of electricity to cover the higher cost of renewable energy.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/05/business/global/glut-of-solar-panels-is-a-new-test-for-china.html?_r=1&hp
As Iran’s Currency Keeps Tumbling, Anxiety Is Rising
In the Iranian capital, all anyone can talk about is the rial, and how lives have been turned upside down in one terrible week. Every elevator ride, office visit or quick run to the supermarket brings new gossip about the currency’s drop and a swirl of speculation about who is to blame.
“Better buy now,” one rice seller advised Abbas Sharabi, a retired factory guard, who had decided to buy 900 pounds of Iran’s most basic staple in order to feed his extended family for a year.
“As I was gathering my money, the man received a phone call,” said Mr. Sharabi, smoking cigarette after cigarette on Thursday while waiting for a bus. “When he hung up he told me prices had just gone up by 10 percent. Of course I paid. God knows how much it will cost tomorrow.”
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But those dreams have been shattered. “We can’t even think of the future, of tomorrow, the day after, or the next week,” Maysam said. Foreign trips are out of the question, as even the price of a cup of coffee in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, or Istanbul — favorite destinations for Iranians — has tripled when calculated in rials. Parents of the legions of Iranians studying abroad are calling their children back to Iran, as rents and college fees in countries like the Philippines and Malaysia have become unaffordable.
“I have told my son to come home,” said Shabaz, 60, who is part owner of a printing house, adding that he had spent his life encouraging his son and daughter to study abroad. “We are all losing. His future is gone; I won’t ever witness his graduation; and he won’t find a job.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/05/world/middleeast/as-irans-currency-keeps-tumbling-anxiety-is-rising.html?hp
Gas shortage shutters Costco stations, prices skyrocket
California had its largest single-day gasoline price spike in almost five years Thursday, leading to long lines at the pump, gas shortages and even station closures.
Experts said the price increases could continue for weeks and the average might even break the $5 mark. Already by Thursday afternoon, at least five Los Angeles area gas stations had crossed the $5 per gallon mark, according to GasBuddy.com, including one charging $5.29 per gallon in Burbank and another at $5.11 in Norwalk. One station in Calabasas was even charging $5.69.
"We are looking at the highest California prices ever," said Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst for Oil Price Information Service, which compiles the price data for AAA.
A refinery closure, a contaminated pipeline and the state's strict pollution limits are all, in part, to blame, experts said. Gasoline inventories across the state are lower than they have been in more than 10 years.
http://www.contracostatimes.com/california/ci_21698765/gas-shortage-shutters-costco-stations-simi-northridge-and
When Errol Emrich drove by a Shell station in his San Jose neighborhood last weekend, regular gas was selling for $4.05 a gallon.
On Monday, it was $4.15. On Tuesday, $4.25. And this weekend? Analysts say it could reach a whopping $4.40.
The spike sent Emrich to a Rotten Robbie on Sierra Road, where last week he found gas for $3.97. On Tuesday it was at $4.25, and Emrich was not happy.
"I see no reason for this at all," he said. "Sounds like a load of rubbish to me."
http://www.businessinsider.com/california-gas-prices-2012-10
Addicted to Viagra: Growing number of young men can't go without little blue pill.
On two occasions, he was even prescribed it by his GP, albeit with warnings about the long-term effects such as blue-tinged vision, heart problems and hearing loss.
Now Daniel says he always has a stockpile of the drug — on which he says he spends up to £1,000 a year — either by consulting private doctors or by picking up supplies when he travels to Spain for work.
The drug contains sildenafil citrate and works by improving blood flow in the penis. Daniel admits he sometimes experiences ringing in his ears. But despite the dangers, he feels as a single man he has little choice.
‘I know it’s bad for my health,’ he says. ‘I can hear my heart palpitating when I take the tablets, and I come out in cold sweats. Sometimes the beating is so loud, I think I am going to have a heart attack. I need some help to stop.’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-2212529/Addicted-Viagra-They-virile-growing-number-young-men-t-cope-little-blue-pills.html#ixzz28OVVQTxG
Don't put too much on Big Bird...he is a one percenter.
Critics have pounced on Gov. Mitt Romney's debate statement that he will cut funding to PBS, even though he says he likes Big Bird. Democrats have tried to characterize his anti-Muppet statement as cold and heartless, but a 2011 tax return reveals Big Bird made enough money last year to put himself in the one percent earnings bracket.
The 2011 IRS 990 form for Sesame Workshop (formerly the Children's Television Workshop), the producers of Sesame Street, revealed that they received $7,968,918 in government grants last year. That sounds like a hefty amount, but the 990 also revealed that Sesame Workshop received $44,984,003 in royalties last year, which includes sales of Sesame Street brand merchandise like "Tickle Me Elmo" dolls. That means Big Bird made five times in merchandise sales than what he received in government grants.
An even closer look at Sesame Workshop's finances shows the government funding Romney wants to cut is only a small part of their budget and may not be necessary at all. In 2011, Sesame Workshop received $31,555,192 in grants and donations last year apart from the U.S. government. They also raised over $2 million in additional funds from various fundraising events. In all, Sesame Workshop raised almost $34 million in private funds for Sesame Street, aside from government grants.
http://www.examiner.com/article/big-bird-s-a-one-percenter-inside-sesame-street-s-tax-return
Documents found by reporters in Benghazi discuss possible attack in early September.
State Department officials were provided with copies of some of the documents found at the site. They did not request that the documents be withheld from publication.
None of the documents were marked classified, but this is not the first time that sensitive documents have been found by journalists in the charred wreckage of the compound. CNN discovered a copy of the ambassador’s journal last month and broadcast details from it, drawing an angry response from the State Department. Unlike the journal, all of the documents seen by The Post were official.
At least one document found in the clutter indicates that Americans at the mission were discussing the possibility of an attack in early September, just two days before the assault took place. The document is a memorandum dated Sept. 9 from the US mission’s security office to the 17th February Martyrs Brigade, the Libyan-government-sanctioned militia that was guarding the compound, making plans for a ‘‘quick reaction force,’’ or QRF, that would provide security.
‘‘In the event of an attack on the U.S. Mission,’’ the document states, ‘‘QRF will request additional support from the 17th February Martyrs Brigade.’’
http://bostonglobe.com/news/world/2012/10/03/sensitive-documents-left-behind-american-mission-libya/2PEmXvMuJd0v9VTPJr5tdK/story.html
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