November 1, 2012

Taking Nate Silver's football analogy and running with it.

5 more days. I don't think I'm alone here in getting a bit obsessive with my poll watching. Where do we really stand? It seems there's analogies all over the place trying to provide perspective. But whereas most polling analogies try to compare this Presidential election with other Presidential elections in the past (2012 is like 2004, 2012 is like 1980, etc.), I like Nate Silver's most recent sports analogy the best:

Mr. Obama is not a sure thing, by any means. It is a close race. His chances of holding onto his Electoral College lead and converting it into another term are equivalent to the chances of an N.F.L. team winning when it leads by a field goal with three minutes left to play in the fourth quarter. There are plenty of things that could go wrong, and sometimes they will.

But it turns out that an N.F.L. team that leads by a field goal with three minutes left to go winds up winning the game 79 percent of the time. Those were Mr. Obama’s chances in the FiveThirtyEight forecast as of Wednesday: 79 percent.

Not coincidentally, these are also about Mr. Obama’s chances of winning Ohio, according to the forecast.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/01/oct-31-obamas-electoral-college-firewall-holding-in-polls/#more-36981

I would agree with this analogy, but I think more details are necessary to provide the proper perspective of President Obama's chances of winning the election. So Obama leads by 3 points with 3 minutes left. Who has possession of the football in this analogy? I believe Hurricane Sandy has put possession squarely in Obama's hands. It's an important possession. He can't just run out the clock by spiking the football (i.e. flying over the damage for a photo-op of him looking out the window with a look of grave concern) and high-fiving his teammates. ("You're doing a heckuva job, Brownie!&quot Obama needs a first down to win the whole game.

How close are we? I would say that President Obama just completed a nine yard run with a helpful block, inadvertent or not, from Governor Christie. It's second down with one yard to go for victory. There are no timeouts left and the clock is still ticking. Also, if you take into account our GOTV ground game in the swing states, I would say we're inside the 20 yard line in Romney territory.

I'm liking this analogy a lot! Help me out if you think I'm missing any details.

September 6, 2012

Exclusive: Paul Ryan Quietly Requested Obamacare Cash

Just got this from The Nation:

Exclusive: Paul Ryan Quietly Requested Obamacare Cash

Republican vice-presidential candidate Paul Ryan is barnstorming the country, promising to repeal every provision of the Affordable Care Act if the Romney-Ryan ticket is elected. But a letter he wrote to the Obama administration may undermine this message.

On December 10, 2010, Ryan penned a letter to the Department of Health and Human Services to recommend a grant application for the Kenosha Community Health Center, Inc to develop a new facility in Racine, Wisconsin, an area within Ryan’s district. “The proposed new facility, the Belle City Neighborhood Health Center, will serve both the preventative and comprehensive primary healthcare needs of thousands of new patients of all ages who are currently without healthcare,” Ryan wrote.



The grant Ryan requested was funded directly by the Affordable Care Act, better known simply as healthcare reform or Obamacare.

The letter, among several obtained by The Nation and The Investigative Fund through a Freedom of Information Act request, is a stark reminder that even the most ardent opponents of Obamacare privately acknowledge many of the law’s benefits.

more...

http://www.thenation.com/blog/169757/exclusive-paul-ryan-quietly-requested-obamacare-cash?rel=emailNation

I hope VP Biden uses this to crush him in the debate!

August 13, 2012

"President Ryan" - Another Shrewd Move in the Corporate State's Long Game

"President Ryan" - Another Shrewd Move in the Corporate State's Long Game

By Richard (RJ) Eskow

August 12, 2012 - 5:01pm ET

Paul Ryan's looks are often compared to an actor's, and that's no accident: He's being groomed for the role of a lifetime. When Mitt Romney accidentally introduced Ryan as "the next President" he may have been displaying the same predilection for accidental honesty - for truth-telling as political gaffe - that he showed when he praised Israel's socialized health system.

And Romney may be right. The most likeable and electable extremist in the country just became the GOP's 2016 front-runner. That's no accident either.

All the signs suggest that the economy will struggle for years unless progressive steps are taken. Worse, another steep decline into recession or depression could occur at any time. If Obama's re-elected and we're still suffering in 2016, as now seems likely, our "electable extremist" will be in the perfect position to become the next President.

Heads we win, says Corporate America, and tails you lose.

more...

http://ourfuture.org/blog-entry/2012083212/president-ryan-another-play-corporate-rights-long-game

February 2, 2012

Video Proof of Unjust Mass Arrest and Media Spin at Occupy Oakland 1/28/12- OakFoSho Ustream footage

[link:

#!|

February 2, 2012

8.5 tons of radioactive water leak from Fukushima plant

January 31, 2012

World lacks enough food, fuel as population soars: U.N.

(Reuters) - The world is running out of time to make sure there is enough food, water and energy to meet the needs of a rapidly growing population and to avoid sending up to 3 billion people into poverty, a U.N. report warned on Monday.

As the world's population looks set to grow to nearly 9 billion by 2040 from 7 billion now, and the number of middle-class consumers increases by 3 billion over the next 20 years, the demand for resources will rise exponentially.

Even by 2030, the world will need at least 50 percent more food, 45 percent more energy and 30 percent more water, according to U.N. estimates, at a time when a changing environment is creating new limits to supply.

And if the world fails to tackle these problems, it risks condemning up to 3 billion people into poverty, the report said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/30/us-un-development-idUSTRE80T10520120130