March 4, 2020

Super Tuesday

“History never repeats itself, but the Kaleidoscopic combinations of the pictured present often seem to be constructed out of the broken fragments of antique legends.” – Mark Twain; The Gilded Age: A Tale of To-Day; 1874


The wonderful quote, “History doesn't repeat, it rhymes,” is frequently attributed to Mark Twain, and while there are enough similar examples in his writings to hint that he spoke those words, no one can say for certain. Following “Super Tuesday,” however, the above quote may be more important for us to understand, in order to increase our chances of winning not only the White House, but the Senate as well.

Last night, I found myself focusing upon some of the broken fragments from my memories from 1988. Growing up in an extended Irish-American Catholic family, though not Catholic since learning how to skip church without paternal detection as a teen long before, I was an early Biden supporter. But his campaign got knee-capped early. There are other broken fragments from 1988 that are not dissimilar to some of the current events.

Now, the 1988 Democratic primaries featured numerous good candidates. Many in our party had hoped Mario Cuomo would run, but he opted not to. So in 1987, Gary Hart was in the lead, though a scandal resulted in the loss of that position. Joe Biden was coming on strong, until a pseudo-scandal hurt him. Joe had been quoting Neil Kinnock, of the British Labour Party, in his speeches. Joe properly gave credit to Kinnock in every speech but one, and the Dukakis campaign sent a film clip of that one to the media, claiming Biden was plagiarizing Kinnock.

At the same time, they started the rumor that Biden had been caught plagiarizing in law school. Although the Delaware Supreme Court's Board of Professional Responsibility noted this was simply not true, the damage in the media was entrenched, and Joe Biden dropped out of the race. Several of Dukakis's staff resigned in protest over the “dirty tricks – leaving, in my opinion, a staff that was not nearly as good as their candidate.

Dukakis was a good man, and a good politician. Like literally every politician and human being, he was not “perfect.” His approach might be described as clinical, with little if any emotion. In that sense, he tended to come across similar to Mike Bloomberg. This was one of three things that would hurt him in the general election.

The second thing that hurt the Dukakis campaign was his relationship to Jesse Jackson. It's worth noting that Jesse has recently said that Bernie Sanders has taken up the flag that Jesse was carrying in the 1964 and '88 primaries. A huge difference today, of course, is that Joe Biden and Bernie are friends, and respect one another. Dukakis was not comfortable with Jackson in any way, least of all when they met in person.

It has been said, correctly or incorrectly, that Jesse had a bit of a superiority complex. Jesse himself noted that people should not want a person with an inferiority complex to be president, at times citing the example of Richard Nixon. And in 1988, Jesse ran a strong campaign, winning numerous primaries in states the party would need to carry to win in November.

The “Democratic Leadership Council” had been formed to try to correct mistakes that had been made earlier in the decade, including Mondale's loss to Reagan in 1984. The DLC believed Mondale had been seen as too liberal (he was a really, really good liberal, in my opinion). By focusing upon more centrist candidates, the Democrats had won control of the Senate in 1986. Yet, that can not be seen as separate from the Iran-Contra scandal – something that had the potential to damage Bush the Elder in the 1988 contest. Indeed, after Dukakis won the primaries, polls indicated he had a significant lead over Bush.

Jesse believed that his showing in the primaries indicated he would add the most to the ticket for November. In communications, Jesse and his staff believed they were being given serious consideration. However, the DLC/ party establishment believed Jesse's charisma would overshadow Dukakis. More, while they had the lead in current polls, they believed it was important to try to nail Texas down.

Dukakis had won the Texas primary with 33% of the vote, while Jesse had won 25%. But there was a belief that putting Jesse on the ticket might hurt the ticket's chances of winning Texas in November. Hence, Dukakis would pick Texas Senator Lloyd Bentsen, Jr., as his running mate.

Before announcing that pick, however, Dukakis had to break the news to Jesse. That event did not go well, and included evidence that Dukakis's team had not taken simple steps to avoid the meeting as coming off as a snub. This included the serving of food that Jackson's team had told the Dukakis people that Jesse was not able to eat for health reasons. Things between the two men remained tense.

Bush would win 40 states, including Texas. A number of the states that Dukakis lost by relatively small amounts were the states where Jesse had been the strongest in the primaries. One can only speculate on if having Jesse as VP would have made the difference. But it is certain that, although Jesse endorsed Dukakis, a significant number of Jesse's supporters did note vote in November.

It is too early to say with any certainty if Joe Biden will be our nominee. There are obviously strong reasons to think he most likely will be. But our history has numerous examples of what seems most likely not happening.

However, there is one thing that we can say for certain, without any risk of error. Come November, we will need the supporters of Biden, Bernie, Warren, and all of the other candidates who have participated in the 2020 Democratic primary season to vote for our ticket. And that is definitely something that we all need to keep in mind between now through our convention. For Biden, Sanders, and Warren are friends, and will attempt to provide a united front. A very real danger is that their supporters will insult others in ways that create bitterness and prevent the required unity for victory. We too often see that type of bullshit even now, on the internet. Please do not participate in it.

Peace,
H2O Man

March 3, 2020

Your Opinion, Please

I see that Paul Begala said that Trump will drop his Pence and add Nikki Haley to the republican ticket this summer. Mr. Begala is a smart man, and he may be right. Trump's re-election campaign has told him that Pence neither adds to nor subtracts from his level of support. Placing Pence as the head of the administration's efforts to prevent and contain the coronavirus could kill any prayer Pence has to remain, should Haley be open to the idea.

But tonight, on the eve of the Super Tuesday primaries, I do not think it matters who runs with Trump. I remain convinced that any one of our candidates would beat Trump. And whoever our nominee is, we are going to win.

Hence, my questions: who do you want to see as the 2020 ticket? Who are in particular do you think would, as the vice presidential candidate, create the best balance? Why?

There are, as always, no “wrong” answers. I'm just curious who others view as the best VP picks?

Thank you,
H2O Man