How after everything — abysmal polls, the 2018 midterm debacle, this week’s impeachment — is a second term even a possibility? The belief that the usual rules of politics simply do not apply to this president — whether because of political dark arts or some kind of cosmic destiny — is one of the only things that unites Trump loathers and Trump loyalists.

But there is no need to look for mystical explanations. There is a path to reelection for a president who never cracks 50 percent approval in polls that is entirely plausible. It's not because the normal dynamics of politics do not apply to Trump, but because they do.....

Once again, Trump’s strategy is not about breaking precedent so much as exploiting advantages that have worked often for incumbent presidents. Incumbents usually lose when the economy is weak or they face ideological opposition from within their party — neither of which is true for him.

Time and money not spent fighting for the nomination is a big advantage — and it may not matter much that this advantage is offset by bleak national polls. The Trump team says in background interviews that it is making targeted efforts in 17 states, but a much smaller number will get the lion’s share of attention....

In sum, the Trump team can give cogent answers to the question — How will Trump win? — and they are faking it well (as skilled operatives usually do) if they don’t actually believe what they are saying. But there are too many imponderable assumptions embedded in those answers for anyone but Trump partisans to embrace them as fully credible.