October 30, 2018

This the last Monday

This is the last Monday that Donald Trump can go to bed without wondering what the House of Representatives is going to do to hold him accountable for his actions.

This is the last Monday that Donald Trump can go to bed and not wonder what the Republicans in the House and the Senate will do to ensure that they aren't wiped out in the next blue wave and will they turn on him to save their seats.

It is not the last night that he will hear rumours of serious infighting in his cabinet.

It is not the last night that he will go to bed reading embarrassing stories about his actions leaked by his own staff.

Where we are behind we can catch up.

Where it is close we can take the seat.

The Senate is still up for grabs.

Where we are ahead we can pile up a mountain of votes so that no one will want to challenge our incumbent.

And the reason for this is very simple.

Forget the Presidential approval numbers, forget the generic ballot because we didn't recruit generic candidates.

In fact we didn't recruit these candidates they sat down at their kitchen table and figured that they had enough and went down and put their name on the ballot.

Having looked at dozens and dozens of districts (aided by the indefatigable RandySF ambition posting on dozens of districts) it is clear that the team that we have on the ballot is the most inspiring, talented, articulate, compassionate team of candidates in the history of the Republic.

And they are being led by an astonishing number of brilliant, capable, talented experienced women.

Women candidates and women voters are going to give the Republic a chance to redeem itself.

This is the last Monday where we have to live in a constitutional Republic where the people's house has been paralyzed by atrophy and just like most of our houses it will be the women that clean up the house and put things straight.

October 29, 2018

Hate speech is protected

Precursor to a crime?

So you want to arrest something because they might do something?

I hate intolerant people. I hate NAZIS. Now arrest me.

Making a speech inciting people to attack someone is a crime.

Limitations to the right of absolute speech have been carefully worked out over 240 years. What new limitation do you propose that isn't already in existance?

October 29, 2018

These aren't the worst days of the Republic but they are the most vulgar.

Vietnam, the McCarthy Era, World Wars, Japanese Internment, Jim Crow, the Civil War, two hundred years of aggressive slavery and the genocide of Native Americans are but a few of the times where the Republic suffered more and/or suffered more.

But it has never been this vulgar or vain.


So while we have seen greater evil by scale in terms of the number of lives and the amount of suffering by individuals we have never seen this level of degradation of spirit, mind numbing banality and trivialization of American values.

In five days we have witnessed more political violence combined than in decades.

1) Gregory Bush tries to enter the predominately African American First Baptist Church in Jeffersontown but the doors were locked. He runs to the store to start shooting random blacks and fortunately is stopped by a good Samaritan who is armed and starts shooting at him.

2) Cesar Sayoc mails 14 IEDs and is stopped by outstanding law enforcement action.

3) Robert Bowers murders 11 unarmed synagogue members because he thinks that they are funding the caravan that is going to come up and destroy "his people". Within minutes of his tweeting "screw your optics I am going in" and discharging the first round law enforcement was there to stop him.

If these these three had an ounce of the strategic awareness that the Las Vegas shooter had we would be looking at casualty rates in the hundreds and what does Donald Trump discuss at his first public appearance with the FFA?

His bad hair day.

https://metro.co.uk/2018/10/28/donald-trump-jokes-of-bad-hair-day-after-being-caught-in-rain-on-day-of-mass-shooting-8082040/

We are looking at a very high chance that this vulgarian will be front and center for everyone to see for the next 2 years.

And the evil is compounding. The DACA children are at risk. The legal TPS holders number exceed 600,000. If the asylum seekers reach the border and successfully apply for asylum he will lash out at them and others.

The competence of the regime is going to disintegrate as cabinet leaders leave in mass.

We are watching a dystopian mix between Groundhog Day and Lord of the Flies.

The really disturbing question is why is this mid term even going to be close? Before he was elected there was a theoretical argument that some could make that he was going to pivot and become Presidential.

Now we see that he has only card to play, the double down card and nothing is going to change.

October 25, 2018

AZ early voting statistics 10/24

Background

Registered Voters

2018 3.7 million
2016 3.58
2014 3.2

Current breakdown by party affiliation

1.288 Republican 35%
1,238 Independents 34%
1,151 Democratic 31%

Early voting

Total

Republicans 291K 44.4%
Democratic 214K 32.7%
Independent 147K 22.4%

Links: http://www.arizona.vote/early-ballot-statistics
https://azsos.gov/elections/voter-registration-historical-election-data

The one stat I really don't understand is Women are only 49.7% of the vote.

For Sinema to have a chance we nee 54% of the vote by women.

Need everyone to get to their nearest campaign office and help calling to get Dems out to vote. If you need information on the nearest office respond to this thread with your zip code.

October 22, 2018

Monday 10/22 Today's GOTV Good news update thread It is still possible to take the Senate.

1) Everything is still in play. Our strong showing in the House simply means that we have more Republican incumbents that are in seats we can take.

The Senate is still in play. Even North Dakota is still in play. Cramer polls consistently at 50% Heitkamp at 42% with large MOE and 8% undecideds. Wouldn't put it in the win column but we haven't lost in North Dakota. John Ralston had a county by county analysis on MSNBC where he detailed why it is much closer in ND than people give credit for it. Ralston (who picked Reid when the polls had him losing) had a very specific analysis of why ND polls are less reliable than other states. He also credits Heitkamp for being very effective in closing in the rural areas where she came from. He didn't say that she was leading but he said that she was still in the game.


2) Nevada Perhaps the best Democratic GOTV effort on a per capita basis has been unleashed and is rolling

The polls in NV are basically tied. Its going to be down to who has better GOTV
https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-polls/nevada/

The machine that beat the polls that showed that Harry Reid was losing is back in full operation:

Ralston says that "Another big turnout day in Clark. In 2014, it was about 7,500 on Day Two. As of 3 PM today, 17,000 had turned out. Going to be three or four times last midterm.

3) Florida: A million votes are in already and the polls look strong

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-polls/florida/

The most reliable polls show Nelson moving to a 4-5% lead but Florida is always within 1-2% in heavily contested state wide elections. We need a high turnout to win.
A total of 55,640 mail-in ballots have already been cast in Broward County, 28,617 in Palm Beach County and 71,152 in Miami-Dade.



4) Tennessee Blackburn's Kavanaugh bounce is going away

The last 3 polls show Blackburn's numbers going down. The latest poll by Vanderbilt shows Bredesen up by 1%

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-polls/tennessee/

The good/bad news is that TN is nearly last in the country in election turnout.

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2018/08/27/tennessee-voter-registration-turnout-panel/1115860002/

The party that is the most motivated and the most organized is going to win TN. As Bredesen has won state wide campaigns he should be the most organized and Dems are the most motivated.

5) AZ Sinema appears to hold her lead


https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-polls/arizona/

The DSCC and MoveOn have made a huge investment in GOTV along with the AFL CIO. There are over 40 full time GOTV staffers from DSCC and MoveOn in AZ. The action in Tucson has been robust. Friends in Phoenix say it is less. Its hard to for me to judge because I am on the inside and every campaign beside President Obama's that I have worked on has underperformed, lol.

We should win but it could be close. AZ 2 is going to flip to blue. The Senate could come down to a few hundred votes.

6) Missouri is tied

This should have been an easy pick up for the GOP but the polling could not be closer, and it hasn't moved much, especially if you compare poll to poll. No word on early voting. Perhaps the best variable in Missouri is that the GOP has consistently underestimated McCaskill

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-polls/missouri/

7) Texas, something big is happening in Texas

The polls in Texas show us down 6% but there is one critical problem with these polls, they are based on models that show low performance by the young and Latino voters in past elections. This isn't an ideological war in Texas it is a leadership/personality war. A very small change in the modelling will put Beto on top.

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-polls/texas/

Four years ago only 54% of registered voters voted in the off year election. We simply need moderate increase in Democratic voters and a swing of independents and disenchanted Republicans to make up the 5-6% in the polls.



We currently have 49 Senate seats. If we accept the positive polls in FL, WV, MT, NJ and Ohio as likely wins we end up with 3 Dem states that are real toss ups or likely loss:

If we put IN ND or MI into toss up or lean Republican then we have 46 Senate seats needing 5 to make 51.

The Rep/Dem toss up "pool" then has 7 seats for us to make 5. Those 7 are: AZ ND NV IN MI TN TX

We look like we have a good chance in MI, NV, IN and AZ. If we take those then we there are 3 seats to make one:

ND, TX, TN

If we lose MI, NV, IN or AZ then we would need to take 2 out of the 3 longshot states.

It is a long shot but the Senate is still in play.

Its like drawing to an inside straight.

Or it is less likely than if you asked pollsters 12 years ago what are the odds we could elect someone by the name of Barack Hussein Obama to be President of the United States.