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Emrys

Emrys's Journal
Emrys's Journal
July 3, 2016

Thoughts on the Sociology of Brexit

Impossible to get down to four paragraphs on this one, so here are the headings/key points:

The geography reflects the economic crisis of the 1970s, not the 2010s

Handouts don’t produce gratitude

Brexit was not fuelled by a vision of the future

We now live in the age of data, not facts

The least ‘enslaved’ nation in the EU just threw off its ‘shackles’


http://www.perc.org.uk/project_posts/thoughts-on-the-sociology-of-brexit/

July 3, 2016

The Mail has explained what Brexit means and its readers seem shocked

'TAKE A BOW, BRITAIN', the front page of today's pro-Leave Daily Mail urges.

Inside, as well as hailing the referendum as 'the day the quiet people stood up and roared' and rubbishing the 'disaster' that was project fear, it also explores what Brexit means for its readers: the pound is worth less which means holidays cost more, Britons will lose the right to work, buy holiday homes, travel and study without restrictions in the EU and pensions have lost value. All in all, some things to worry its readers even if they share the paper's politics.

And in the comments online underneath the story, many of those readers seen dumbfounded, shocked and ever so slightly incredulous:







Full story: http://indy100.independent.co.uk/article/the-mail-has-explained-what-brexit-means-and-its-readers-seem-shocked--Z1772TI4aNW


The Mail's original story from 24 June is here: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3659137/So-does-mean-Brexit-affect-holiday-money-mortgages-passports-health-cover.html

For once, it is worth reading the comments ...
July 2, 2016

Michael Gove isn't driven only by personal ambition, but his wife's

The only sensible conclusion we can draw from this week’s events is that we need more Etonians from the Bullingdon Club running the country. All that money on school fees guarantees its pupils emerge with an assured presence – impeccable characters who always make calm rational choices.

Hopefully, Cameron and Boris met up last night over a brandy and agreed, “Hmmm, it only took us a few years between us to wreck Britain, now let’s try somewhere more challenging like China.”

Because, with what’s left, nothing surprises you. Soon it will seem normal to say, “Oh, Bruce Forsyth has become leader of the Liberal Democrats”, and to see Jay-Z is standing for Labour leader with an announcement, “Hey, ya ready for a press statement? I said, ya need a leader that looks regal, done stuff illegal, drives faster than a hunting beagle, so vote for me, not this bitch Eagle.”

The people we have to feel really sorry for are those who voted Leave and now regret it. How were they to know that a vote to Leave would be counted as a vote to Leave?

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/michael-gove-conservative-leader-next-prime-minister-sarah-vine-rupert-murdoch-daily-mail-personal-a7111656.html


The ever-reliable Mark Steel sums up events of the last week.
July 2, 2016

Don't blame Jeremy Corbyn - polls show only Tory voters could have kept us in the EU

The Labour Party was already having enough difficulty keeping itself together without a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union coming along. The party was reeling from the election of a leader who was not only well to the left of most of his parliamentary colleagues but also did not obviously have the personal skills needed to do the job. However, the referendum on the EU compounded the party’s difficulties by exposing another fissure - between its traditional white working class supporters and its public sector socially liberal middle class ones (including the vast bulk of its parliamentary party). In combination the two divisions threaten to tear the party {a}part.

Elections in the UK are usually about the left and right of politics, whether the government should do a little more or a little less. On this Labour’s working and middle class supporters tend to be at one with each other. They all, albeit to varying degrees, want the state to do more, to curb the excesses of the capitalist market and produce more equitable outcomes. So long as political conflict focuses on this issue they are a viable electoral coalition.

...

Corbyn not to blame

Against this backdrop it was hardly surprising that across Britain as a whole only around two-thirds (63 per cent according to Lord Ashcroft, 65 per cent as estimated by YouGov) of those who voted Labour in 2015 voted to remain in the EU. The party was never likely to achieve much more than this. And at least the party’s coalition did not fracture as badly as the one that backed David Cameron a year ago; well under half (42 per cent according to Lord Ashcroft, 39 per cent, YouGov) of those who voted Conservative in 2015 voted to remain. The real source of the Remain side’s difficulties was the failure of David Cameron to bring his own voters on board.

...

Yet it is Jeremy Corbyn who is taking the blame ... inside much of the Labour party for the Remain side’s failure, as the party’s pre-existing division about his leadership interacts with the division made manifest by the referendum. Of course, MPs are entitled to make their own judgement about Mr Corbyn’s capabilities for the job, a judgement that his performance in the referendum appears to have reinforced and which they may feel has become more pressing given that the outcome of the referendum makes an early general election more likely. But in truth there is little in the pattern of the results of the referendum to suggest that Mr Corbyn was personally responsible for Remain’s defeat. The referendum outcome looks more like a pretext for an attempt to secure Mr Corbyn’s removal than a reason.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/06/dont-blame-jeremy-corbyn-polls-show-only-tory-voters-could-have-kept-us-eu


This article is almost impossible to chop down to four representative paragraphs (and needs a decent proofread - quite a few choppy edits and typos) - you'll have to click through to read the whole thing to understand the author's argument.


What partisan hack wrote it? - A name those who've watched UK election night result programmes over many years may recognize: John Curtice.

X-posted in UK Group: http://www.democraticunderground.com/108810890

John Curtice isn't a name I'd expect many US DUers to know. He's a familiar figure in the UK because he's been the resident poll analyst during TV election results coverage since the 1970s. He's not Nate Silver - he seldom makes categoric predictions, but I trust him to parse real election results when they're known.

The full article backs up the assertion in the headline with detailed analysis of the results. The blaming of Corbyn is opportunistic.

The conclusions Curtice reaches include some home truths for all of us who are trying to understand what happened, why, and what may need to be done as a result. It's more nuanced than many of us have been, and focuses clearly on the effects of globalization.

It's just one analysis, but in view of Curtice's experience and long-term perspective, I have to give it due weight.

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