SunSeeker
SunSeeker's JournalDemocrats Dont Need Trumps Voters To Retake The House
Democrats Don’t Need Trump’s Voters To Retake The House
By Harry Enten
Stop me if you’ve seen a headline (or five) that proclaims something along the lines of: “Most Trump voters still support Trump.” Typically, the article includes quotes from Trump voters in Pennsylvania or Michigan. Sometimes it revolves around polling showing people don’t “regret” voting for Trump. The takeaway is usually: Trump still has the support of his base, which means Democrats haven’t cracked the Trump nut yet.
But here’s the thing: Democrats don’t need to crack that nut by 2018; Trump can hang on to most — if not all — of his base, and Democrats could still clean up in the midterm elections. Checking in with Trump’s supporters is worthwhile. But don’t mistake their level of satisfaction for a political prediction.
Let’s start with the basic fact that Trump won just 45.9 percent of the vote in 2016. That doesn’t make his victory any less legitimate — winning (the Electoral College) with less than a majority is still winning — but Trump has a smaller base than every president elected since 1972, except for Bill Clinton in 1992. Trump voters are not a majority.
More importantly for the sake of 2018, they don’t represent the majority of voters in the majority of congressional districts. Trump won more than 50 percent in 205 of 435 districts. If House Republicans won every district where Trump won a majority in 2016 but lost every other one, Democrats would control 230 seats. Among seats won by a Republican in 2016, Trump fell short of a majority in 40 districts. Democrats need to win only 24 of those to win control of the House.
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-dont-need-trumps-voters-to-retake-the-house/?ex_cid=story-facebook
Roger Stone: Trump's Saudi award 'makes me want to puke'
As President Donald Trump celebrated what he called a "tremendous" first day in Saudi Arabia, his onetime campaign adviser and longtime confidante Roger Stone expressed nothing but aversion for the Gulf nation and parts of the President's trip.
In a litany of tweets, Stone berated Saudi Arabia as "the enemy" and slammed Trump for accepting the Order of Abdulaziz from King Salman bin Abdulaziz.
"Candidly this makes me want to puke," he wrote.
The order, the nation's highest civilian honor, was also bestowed upon former Presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush. Stone suggested, however, that Trump accepted the award only at the suggestion of his son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner, although he doesn't say why he made the assertion. https://twitter.com/RogerJStoneJr/status/865963547314073601
http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/20/politics/roger-stone-saudi-arabia-tweets/index.html
H.R. McMaster didn't really deny that Trump gave Russia classified information
White House national security adviser H.R. McMaster just emerged from the White House to declare that The Washington Post's story aboutTrump giving highly classified information to Russia "as reported, is false."
But the rest of McMaster's statement made clear he wasn't actually denying the report. And his entire brief statement -- punctuated by McMaster walking away without taking shouted questions -- speaks volumes.
McMaster says that "at no time were intelligence sources or methods discussed." But The Post's reporting doesn't say that they were.
Instead, the report states clearly only that Trump discussed an Islamic State plot and the city where the plot was detected by an intelligence-gathering partner. Officials worried that this information could lead to the discovery of the methods and sources involved, but it didn't say Trump discussed them.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-hr-mcmaster-trump-classified-information-denial-20170515-story.html
FBI: If Trump visited, the "optics would not be good."
Peter Alexander just said on air on MSNBC that the FBI told the White House the "optics would not be good" if he came to visit FBI offices. They told the White House that it would not look good for the President as he would "not be greeted warmly" after the sacking of Comey, which many FBI agents disagreed with.
The irony of Trump using Comey's pink slip to try to clear himself on Russia: it did the opposite.
As TPM reported:
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Here’s what Trump told Comey — and projected to the entire world — in his letter firing him:
While I greatly appreciate you informing me, on three separate occasions, that I am not under investigation, I nevertheless concur with the judgment of the Department of Justice that you are not able to effectively lead the Bureau.
On March 20, Comey confirmed under oath to the House Intelligence Committee that the FBI was “investigating the Russian government’s efforts to interfere in the 2016 presidential election.”
“That includes investigating the nature of any links between individuals associated with the Trump campaign and the Russian government, and whether there was any coordination between the campaign and Russia’s efforts,” he said.
Comey declined to answer whether Trump himself was under investigation. Indeed, that information would be a closely guarded secret — that’s what makes Trump’s clearing of his own name, using the ousted FBI Director’s credibility, so surprising.
Trump's "thanks for clearing me" line, an obvious lie, raised the Russia investigation as the real reason for Comey's firing, thus contradicting the three-page attached justification memo citing Comey's handling of the Clinton email investigation. And it spurred the media to remind the public that Comey actually confirmed to Congress there was an investigation into Trump campaign collusion with Russia, and that Comey conspicuously refused to clear Trump.
My favorite comment from the comments section to the article:
That part of the letter reads suspiciously like the letter Trump's doctor "wrote" attesting to his health. He obviously insisted on sticking that in there thinking it would somehow officially clear him. On top of his mental illness and encroaching dementia, this is just a very dumb man.
California's Republicans all voted yes on the healthcare bill. Now Democrats have a campaign issue
All 14 Republicans in California’s congressional delegation voted Thursday to dismantle Obamacare, a move that could have ripple effects for the midterm elections 18 months from now as Democrats sense an opportunity to win back House control.
Half of the 14 represent districts that backed Hillary Clinton for president last fall, and Democrats already are plotting to oust vulnerable Republicans on the same topic that swept them out of the majority following the 2010 Affordable Care Act vote.
The American Health Care Act, which government estimates have said could lead to 24 million fewer Americans with health insurance and could substantially affect both those on Medicaid and those with employer-provided insurance, passed the House, 217 to 213 — with all support coming from Republicans. Some of those in California’s delegation voted for the bill with more reluctance than others.
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Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Vista), who publicly said he was undecided all week and who won reelection with fewer than 2,000 votes, sat in the front row at the White House celebration. A few feet away, Rep. Mimi Walters (R-Irvine) smiled on as Trump spoke. It’s a photo op Democrats are sure to use in campaign ads against the Republicans come November 2018.
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-gop-health-care-vote20170504-story.html
Issa, Rohrabacher and Royce all voted Yes on AHCA -- they are fucked.
These Orange County Republican asshats are already in a tenuous position, what with Hillary carrying Orange County. Now, their Dem opponents will kick their ass at the polls.
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