morningfog
morningfog's JournalThree days, three live videos of persons being shot to death
Where are we heading?
I don't remember a time when the images of death have been so immediate, so graphic and come so often in our media.
First, Alton Sterling's death was captured from two cellphones and released soon after his killing. Then we watched, live, in agony as Philando Castile to his dying laborious breathes.
Tonight, with cameras rolling from every angle, we witnessed cops on the ground. Three reported dead, 7 others shot.
Last summer was intense and this year seems to have picked right up.
What can we do to deescalate?
NOW will the gopper's allow debate and voting on gun reform?
They must really torn morally, to their core. Do they go with their love of the gun and NRA teet or with their deep and historic racist hate?
Lynch to Accept F.B.I. Recommendations in Clinton Email Inquiry, Official Says
Attorney General Loretta E. Lynch plans to announce on Friday that she will accept whatever recommendation career prosecutors and the F.B.I. director make about whether to bring charges related to Hillary Clinton’s personal email server, a Justice Department official said. Her decision removes the possibility that a political appointee will overrule investigators in the case.
The Justice Department had been moving toward such an arrangement for months — officials said in April that it was being considered — but a private meeting between Ms. Lynch and former President Bill Clinton this week set off a political furor and made the decision all but inevitable.
Republicans said the meeting, which took place at the Phoenix airport, had compromised the independence of the investigation as the F.B.I. was winding it down. Some called for Ms. Lynch to recuse herself, but she did not take herself off the case — one that could influence a presidential election.
Ms. Lynch plans to discuss the matter at a conference in Aspen, Colo., on Friday. The Justice Department declined to comment. The official who confirmed the discussion did so on the condition of anonymity because the internal decision-making process is normally kept confidential.
The F.B.I. is investigating whether Mrs. Clinton, her aides or anyone else broke the law by setting up a private email server for her to use as secretary of state. Internal investigators have concluded that the server was used to send classified information, and Republicans have seized on the matter to question Mrs. Clinton’s judgment.
http://nyti.ms/29kP2Ra
What is the volume of appeals?
I have had two posts wrongfully hid and reinstated upon appeal, thank you by the way for recognizing the bad hides.
But it made me wonder how often the admins are having to deal with appeals, whether well founded of frivolous.
How do you feel about the new system, understanding it is still quite new?
My sense is that it has helped civility because the jurors have clearer standards and personal attacks are more readily hidden.
Entering the General Election: 4 events that will affect the polls
During the general election campaign, after securing the candidacy, the candidate gets two guaranteed opportunities to get a bump in the polls: announcing their running mate and nomination night at the convention.
Each of these events, anticipated and planned, can give brief or more lasting bumps if done well. Those are really the only two events over which the candidate has control.
As was the case with McCain and Palin, even a piss poor running mate can elicit a bump as newsworthy. Keep that in mind when trumpy trouts out his lackey, any bump will be short lived.
The formal nomination is the other chance. Who knows what's going to happen at the goppers slug fest. I don't expect it will help trumpy all that much, although if the party leaders can get a choke collar on him long enough to look semi-sane a few days, maybe he'll get a slight boost. But he'll start talking again inevitably.
Dems go second. Hillary's nomination should send her numbers up. It will be historic and well done. I don't expect any hiccups from Bernie or his delegates.
The debates are the other events that can be anticipated and have the potential for a change in the polls. But there are many more variables and elements out of the candidates control.
All other changes really depend on gaffes, scandals and national or global events. It is certain we will get plenty of all of these. Interesting times. This will be an election for the books.
538 launches 2016 Election Forecast: Hillary 80.6% chance of winning; Trump 19.3%
538 has Hillary as likely to win 353 EVs.
Good stuff at link: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
GE polls look great and may they hold and build for Hillary, but FBI investigation precludes comfort
Things are looking very good for Hillary and the Dems with respect to polling. She is widening her lead over trumpy nationally and in the battleground swing states. She is making in roads in red states and the Dem support is spreading down ticket.
Trump is perpetually flopping. Since the pivot to general election mode, his shuck and jive isn't holding up. He did okay (not really breaking 50% until his competitors dropped) when eliciting the ignorant and hate filled bigots on the right. As predicted, his appeal is limited. This should be a very good year for Democrats.
But for the ongoing criminal investigation, we should all feel very good about how the race is shaping up. I cannot yet take full comfort in the state of the race though. As long as the FBI investigation remains unresolved, we collectively hold our breath. It is my sincere hope that the investigation wraps up soon and that no charges are recommended for anyone. But that is not the obvious outcome, regardless of how much we want it to be.
To be absolutely fucking clear, the last thing I want is for Hillary or any of her staff to face criminal prosecution. That would be devastating to the party and this country. It would undo all of the damage to the republicans nearly in an instant. And the bottom line is, no one but the FBI and the DOJ personnel on the case know the state of the investigation. Anyone who claims to know the outcome is lying. Anyone who predicts the outcome is working without the facts. We know very little, almost nothing, of what the FBI is looking at, what lines they've followed, or even the scope and target of the investigation. This cannot be poo-poo-ed away like the faux scandals form Gowdy. The ginned up Benghazi witch-hunts were nothing but political fishing expeditions. The ongoing FBI investigation is not.
I seriously and sincerely hope that we are not going to get fucked over. I truly hope that the investigation comes back clean, no charges for anyone and as soon as possible. I look forward to being able to support Hillary with no lingering stomach knot.
Until then, fuck trump. Go Hillary and go Dems. (And hurry up Comey).
Prediction: Bernie concedes tonight
I predict he will concede the race to Hillary and give a rousing and gracious speech. He'll have some 45% of the delegates at the convention, he will continue to have influence on the party. He will take it to the republicans and trump.
In my opinion, tonight would be the point to maximize his popularity and influence. I would have advised him to stay in until now and I would advise him to concede tonight with the last big night of voting.
He's run a great campaign, but far from flawless. I still think he and his team were surprised at how well received his message is. He has served the party well and we are fortunate that he joined the Dems for this run.
The timing of the AP's call lays bare the ridiculousness of Super Delegates
Under the current system, it was not "early" or "premature" to call Hillary the presumptive nominee. It was awkward and revealing though. The reason the call itself is being discussed is not because it included super delegates, but because the AP relied on a count of super delegates on and off voting night.
The problem is not that it will suprress votes, although it may have that effect, but that there were no states voting yesterday. No people were casting their votes. Had the AP made the same call on a voting night, no one would bat an eye. Had the call been made in any day other than a primary voting day, the reaction would be the same.
It's awkward and uncomfortable for the media to call attention to the most undemocratic portion of our nominating process. It's a little embarrassing that this system allows for 15% of unfettered party insiders to have enough power to tip the race at any point, but especially on the eve of the last big vote.
It's not the AP that suppresses votes or steals Hillary's thunder, it is the use of super delegates.
The simple rejoiner is: do away with super delegates.
Tomorrow Hillary will become the presumptive nominee and it is a reason to celebrate
By any measure, Hillary will become the presumptive nominee tomorrow. She will secure a majority of the pledged delegates and she will enjoy the public support of enough super delegates to reach the total majority of delegates.
It is historic and should be, and will be, honored and respected. No one can take away her accomplishments or that she has reached this milestone. I wish her and all of her supporters a preemptive congratulations.
As much as I disagree with some of her policies, she has earned it. It is also possible to celebrate the first woman nominee of a major party and the Democratic Party while continuing to support Bernie, his run and his policies. There may come a point where it is not possible, but I don't expect that will happen. And it won't be tomorrow regardless.
Again, much respect and Hillary Clinton and her supporters. This is an historic and important moment.
Profile Information
Member since: Thu Jan 12, 2012, 04:24 PMNumber of posts: 18,115