At the end of the day, it still seems best that a weakened Kevin is the best outcome.

Going to a second option seems like it would only be someone that is even further to the right or worse.

My only concern is how much he will have bargained away in the process of winning.

There seems to be some idea that it would be good if we could steal the position but that seems problematic to me. I don't want them to have anyone to blame for their disfunction.

I wouldn't mind seeing an outsider like Cheney take it but that seems like a pipe dream.

Please don't post sports results on this board without burying them in a spoiler alert.

Today (and indeed over the next month) there is a soccer game we would love to be home watching.

But since we can't, the next best thing is DVR.

Please do us the favor of not ruining it.

Thanks in advance.

The National Hurricane Center keeps all of the records and allows you to review their guidance in time-lapse

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/IAN_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line_and_wind

This view shows every guidance release over the entire life of the storm. It allows you to see the history of the track, cone, warnings etc.

I know there is a lot of discussion of when the evacuation orders were given for Lee County. This will give you a sense of what the projection was over time.

In hindsight, we can all say they should have been evacuated earlier. In reality, that is a tough call that Emergency Managers struggle with.

Many of you know that I am on a Search and Rescue team as I reported from Surfside last year. I have also written about 9/11, Haiti and Katrina in the past as well.

My team is out there now without me as I am on a medical leave for a minor back issue.

I thought you would be interested in these videos they are posting from Fort Myers Beach. Typically, this is a FEMA team but within the state of Florida, we can be mobilized by the State while more FEMA teams are brought in from outside the area. That is the case this time and was also the case at Surfside.

I miss not being part of it but I am proud of the work my team is doing.

So have you ever had a chance to meet a childhood heartthrob later in life? Someone who was larger than life and you simply adored in your youth (usually with a healthy amount of hormones involved)?

So here is my story.

I was a child of the seventies (born in '66). As a red-blooded American boy, I absolutely loved Olivia Newton John. I mean who didn't? She had the look, the voice and I was crazy for the accent. She was already well known for her music when she did Grease in 1978. I was 12. I was smitten.

Fast forward to 2001. If you remember some of my posts, you may recall I am involved in Search and Rescue for FEMA. I was at 9/11 with my team. I was on a meal break in one of the many cafes set up for the rescue workers when they brought through a USO-style group of celebrities to meet the rescue workers.

Next thing I know, Olivia Newton John sits down right next to me. I was sitting at a table with about 7 other guys. Real rough and tumble firemen types. I kept up the façade for about 10 seconds before I just melted into a gibbering fanboy. I just didn't care what they thought. This was Olivia Newton John after all. The funny thing is that after I broke the ice, they all reacted the same way. She was very kind and gracious and still beautiful. I was still hooked even after nearly 25 years.

So what about you? Ever have your childhood dream crush drop into your real life?

PS I also had the chance to meet Al Franken there but that is a story for another day.

Unitarian and Buddhist ministers are joining a rabbi's legal fight against Florida's new abortion law

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/unitarian-buddhist-ministers-are-joining-rabbis-legal-fight-floridas-n-rcna37354

Two religious leaders — a Unitarian and a Buddhist — plan to join a South Florida rabbi's legal crusade challenging a new state law banning abortions after 15 weeks, arguing it violates the state Constitution's right to privacy and freedom of religion.

The retired Unitarian Rev. Harris Riordan and the Buddhist minister Maya Malay confirmed they will file a lawsuit in state court next week, echoing arguments from Rabbi Barry Silver. Silver intends to file his own amended complaint next week along with Rabbi Arthur Wascow, the founder and director of the progressive Jewish organization the Shalom Center.

"We are excited to expand this lawsuit to include outstanding representatives of the Buddhist and Unitarian traditions," Silver said. "Maya Malay and Harris Riordan are wonderful teachers of their own traditions and have dedicated their lives to improving the world for people of all faiths and religions.

"We look forward to building coalitions with people of all faiths and backgrounds, including atheists and freethinkers, to repair the wall of separation between church and state and to unite the people of the world to protect human rights and save our precious planet," Silver added.

The Unitarian Universalist have always been strong on social action. I know this particular Reverend personally and proud of it.

The witch hunts that are bound to take place are going to get ugly.

At the end of the day, it seems like actual medical information is going to be needed in order to actually establish any potential "guilt" (and I use the term very loosely and only in the framework of something being against the law).

Where this "evidence" of wrongdoing comes from is going to get very complicated.

The police are taking a lot of well earned criticism in Texas.

My view on this might be a little more nuanced than most people because I know a lot of heroes. Those of you that know my posting history know that I have spent time with rescuers in 9/11, Haiti, Surfside and others. I know what heroism looks like. I also know that not all people that look the part are able to act the part when the shit hits the fan. I get it.

But here is the thing. It is time for the police to pick a side.

Either you are on board with the 2nd Amendment crowd or you push for gun restrictions.

If you are on board with the 2nd Amendment crowd then our expectations are that you think you can handle policing that kind of nation. Including all the danger and deadly situations that it puts you in. If that is your position, we have the right to hold you accountable when things go wrong.

Otherwise, just admit that you are overwhelmed in an arms race and cannot effectively police a nation like this. Become an advocate for restrictions, licensing, background checks, a modern traceable registry and all the other things that would make it so much easier for you to do your job.

Be a part of solution or you are part of the problem.

You can't have it both ways.

The Constitution is a FUCKED up document.

Any document that enshrines guns as a national religion is fundamentally flawed.

I am tired of towing the patriotic line. Days like today don't give me much to be proud about.

I don't care if people want to call me un-American.


ON EDIT

To all of you defending the constitution by saying it is all about the interpretation...well yeah sure. That is what we are left with. But it is fucked up to have it there at all. Why elevate gun ownership above every other physical object. It simply has no place in the document at all and has been a source of misinterpretation all along.

I know it has become a solid bet that anything the GOP is accusing us of is essentially a confession of their own wrongdoing.

But this is a new low and made me physically ill

https://www.wonkette.com/pro-life-ex-rnc-aide-who-dreamed-of-killing-kids-sentenced-to-12-years-for-child-porn



All child sexualization is wrong but I do think that there are degrees of evil. I think we can agree that raping babies and renting kids for sex fantasies pretty much blows the top off the chart.

These people are seriously fucked in the head.

And for what it is worth, the jail sentence is about a quarter of what it should be.