SharonClark
SharonClark's JournalAxne (IA-3) re-elected thanks to the Libertarian candidate taking GOP votes.
IA-District 3
100% Reporting
*Incumbent
Candidate Total Votes % Votes
Cindy Axne (D) * 218,968 49.0%
David Young (R) 212,727 47.6%
Bryan Holder (LB) 15,338 3.4%
Cindy is our only bright spot thsi morning.
One pollster was close regarding Iowa - Selzer/Iowa Poll
Ann Selzer's last poll for Iowa had Trump and Ernst ahead by more than any other A rated poll:
Trump +7
Ernst +4.
Vote count:
Trump +8.2
Ernst +6.6
Iowa was hit by a red wave that hit in the last week, 538 showed this as a progressively higher red line.
Sabato's Crystal Ball - The Crystal Ball's 2020 Final Picks
from his email...
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
-- Our final Electoral College ratings show Biden at 321 EVs and Trump at 217.
-- Democrats are narrow favorites to capture a Senate majority, 50-48 with two Toss-ups
-- the two Georgia races, both of which we think are likely to go to runoffs.
-- We have Democrats netting 10 seats in the House.
-- The only governorship we have flipping is Montana, which would be a gain for GOP.
Table 1: Crystal Ball Electoral College rating changes
State Old Rating New Rating
Florida Toss-up Leans GOP
Georgia Toss-up Leans Dem
Iowa Toss-up Leans GOP
ME-2 Toss-up Leans GOP
NC Toss-up Leans Dem
Ohio Toss-up Leans GOP
Table 2: Crystal Ball Senate rating changes
Senator Old Rating New Rating
Joni Ernst (R-IA) Leans Dem Leans GOP
Thom Tillis (R-NC) Toss-up Leans Dem
John Cornyn (R-TX) Likely GOP Leans GOP
Table 3: Crystal Ball House rating changes
Member/District Old Rating New Rating
D. Schweikert (R, AZ-6) Toss-up Leans Dem
T.J. Cox (D, CA-21) Toss-up Leans Dem
D. Mucarsel-Powell (D, FL-26) Toss-up Leans Dem
IN-5 Open (Brooks, R) Toss-up Leans Dem
Jim Hagedorn (R, MN-1) Toss-up Leans Dem
C. Peterson (D, MN-7) Toss-up Leans GOP
Ann Wagner (R, MO-2) Toss-up Leans GOP
Don Bacon (R, NE-2) Toss-up Leans GOP
Susie Lee (D, NV-3) Likely Dem Leans Dem
Jeff Van Drew (R, NJ-2) Toss-up Leans Dem
Max Rose (D, NY-11) Toss-up Leans Dem
A. Brindisi (D, NY-22) Toss-up Leans Dem
John Katko (R, NY-24) Toss-up Leans GOP
Dan Bishop (R, NC-9) Safe GOP Likely GOP
NC-11 Open (Meadows, R) Likely GOP Leans GOP
Steve Chabot (R, OH-1) Toss-up Leans Dem
Kendra Horn (D, OK-5) Toss-up Leans Dem
Scott Perry (R, PA-10) Toss-up Leans Dem
Chip Roy (R, TX-21) Toss-up Leans GOP
TX-22 Open (Olson, R) Toss-up Leans GOP
VA-5 Open (Riggleman, R) Toss-up Leans GOP
J. H. Beutler (R, WA-3) Likely GOP Leans GOP
Polk County Poll Watchers in historic numbers - The Blue Barricade!
The magat-disturbers won't show up here because we're prepared. From the weekly Polk County Dems' update...
The Blue Barricade
It's official. As of 10:00 last night and probably for the first time ever, there's at least one Polk County Democratic poll watcher at every precinct for every hour on Election Day tomorrow. Altogether, we’ve recruited 333 volunteers to fulfill 351 shifts for four or five hours. Our volunteers will be a blue barricade protecting every voter, regardless of party, from any interference, misinformation, or intimidation. All will have a direct line to our Polk Dems leadership team if back-up, law enforcement, or a video recording is required for any reason.
We have same day voter register.
We're trained and ready to help every eligible voter cast a ballot!
Historic Early Voting Lines in Polk County Iowa last week
From the Polk County Dems' weekly update...
Those Lines
We’ve been marveling at the lines of voters at the County Election Office for the last several weeks, but last week took on a genuinely historic hue. . . longer line was starting to form early on Monday. On Tuesday, people were standing in the snow. On Wednesday, people started sending pizzas and bottles of water. Musicians were showing up. On Thursday, the line was two blocks long by 8:30 AM. By Friday, the line was curling around the block at 7:40 AM. The evening streetlights were still on. On Saturday, the line was three blocks long.
By Saturday at noon, an astonishing 78,620 Democrats in Polk County had already voted. There were only 5,695 outstanding absentee ballots with Democrats for us to chase. Most surprisingly, Target Smart found that 167,597 of the early voters in Iowa didn’t vote in 2016. Something big may be happening in our county and our country. As Lori Hunt noted, “people aren’t standing in line in the cold because they’re so energized to keep the status quo.”
We can still win Iowa!
What happens in Iowa if elections are too close to call?
Just an FYI
...
Unlike some states, Iowa law doesn’t include an automatic-recount provision in the event of a close race. However, recounts can be requested by the any of the candidates, or by any voter, assuming the requests are made within three days after the counties’ official election canvass.
Such requests can be made regardless of how close the race is, although the margin dictates who is responsible for the costs associated with the recount.
...
full article here: https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2020/10/31/a-close-race-with-iowa-essential-to-trump-makes-a-recount-more-likely/?eType=EmailBlastContent&eId=645a61fa-0c15-4fe9-b1b1-fd52daaa82e7
A view of the Iowa Poll from an Iowan.
Although it would break my heart if everything in that poll (except Axne) came true, Iowa is only 6 Electoral Votes and Biden doesn’t need Iowa to win.
I hope Ann Seltzer spends a lot of time on Wednesday explaining why her poll was wrong.
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Member since: Sat Sep 26, 2015, 03:46 PMNumber of posts: 10,014