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Member since: Sat Sep 26, 2015, 02:46 PM
Number of posts: 9,383

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Sabato's Crystal Ball moves Biden, Senate and House contests toward Dems


-- With the first debate now in the books, we have close to 20 rating changes across the Electoral College, Senate, and House.
-- Joe Biden is now over 270 electoral votes in our ratings as we move several Midwestern states in his favor.
-- Changes in the battle for Congress benefit Democrats almost exclusively. We're moving two Senate races in their direction, as well as several House contests.

Electoral College
State Old Rating New Rating
Iowa Leans Rep Toss-up
Minnesota Leans Dem Likely Dem
Ohio Leans Rep Toss-up
Wisconsin Toss-up Leans Dem

US Senate
Senator Old Rating New Rating
Dan Sullivan (R-AK) Likely Rep Leans Rep
Cory Gardner (R-CO) Leans Dem Likely Dem

US House Old Rating New Rating
D. Schweikert (R, AZ-6) Leans Rep Toss-up
T.J. Cox (D, CA-21) Leans Dem Toss-up
Charlie Crist (D, FL-13) Likely Dem Safe Dem
A. Finkenauer (D, IA-1) Toss-up Leans Dem
Sean Casten (D, IL-6) Likely Dem Safe Dem
L. Underwood (D, IL-14) Leans Dem Likely Dem
Jared Golden (D, ME-2) Leans Dem Likely Dem
Jim Hagedorn (R, MN-1) Leans Rep Toss-up
MT-AL Open (Gianforte, R) Likely Rep Leans Rep
Jeff Van Drew (R, NJ-2) Leans Rep Toss-up
Lizzie Fletcher (D, TX-7) Leans Dem Likely Dem
VA-5 Open (Riggleman, R) Leans Rep Toss-up

Cook Political Report moves Ohio and Iowa

from lean repug to toss up for Electoral College.

Can Joe Biden defang Donald Trump on the debate stage? And does it even matter?

Interesting article by Heather Digby Parton in Salon today.

... It will be interesting to see how Biden handles all this in the first debate in Cleveland, or whether it will make any difference one way or the other. Trump likes to say that he won the general election debates with Hillary Clinton in 2016, and there even seems to be some conventional wisdom in the press that he's right, but it couldn't be further from truth....

...It occurred to me over the weekend, as I watched the two men closely, that while Trump can accurately be described as that arrogant blowhard at the end of the bar who forces you to move to a table to get away from him, Joe Biden is the fellow at the other end of the bar who's buying everyone drinks and telling funny stories. It could be that he's just the kind of guy who knows how to handle Donald Trump. We'll find out on Tuesday night.


Polk County (IA) Dems will help defeat Joni Ernst

Polk County Dems are the best organized county in Iowa. The Weekly Update is a joy to read...

- More than 90 volunteers called every registered Dem about their voting plan and will follow up for absentee ballots and GOTV.
- More that 150 volunteered will be certified to pick up and deliver absentee ballots.
- There will be a trained poll watcher in every precinct for the first time.
- Staff will be at the county election office inspecting every ballot with errors to see if we can help get them corrected.
- As of last week, our voter registration stations helped add 1,469 new Democrats since August 1. Stations have been set up in every area of the county including at apartment complexes.
- Biden-Harris barn signs are going up in the suburbs thanks to some creative sign makers.
- Community (area) Groups withing the county are doing lit drops, registering voters, and making signs.
- Later this week, wired lockboxes will be provided to all the Community Groups so that they can begin collecting ballots. We’ll also print signage to let passersby know that we’re collecting ballots. If they want to host a ballot drive-thru, they’ll be able to use it for that, too. These stations and all the volunteers mean we can have a physical presence in up to 17 different places in the county all at the same time.

Defeating Ernst in 2020, Grassley in 2022.

Trump ads featuring black women during

Beat Bobby Flay.

One was a conversational group that started and ended with a black woman. Also had a few white men talking about the economy and keeping his word. White woman said Biden will raise taxes and socialism. The black woman at the end said Trump understands people like her.

Second was a lone black woman from Altoona (IA) with a back drop of riots. She said we need Trump to keep us safe in our neighborhoods. She’s identified so I’ll try to catch her name the next time.

Top election forecaster shifts Senate races away from Republicans Susan Collins and Lindsey Graham

by ROGER SOLLENBERGER, Salon, 9/23/20

With the Senate poised to begin likely explosive confirmation hearings over President Donald Trump's nominee to replace former Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, top election expert Larry Sabato has swung his projection for two critical contests to the left. Their outcomes could determine wether Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., who is leading the charge to fill the seat amid the election, retains control of the upper chamber.

Maine's Senate race has switched from "toss-up" to "leans Democratic" as incumbent GOP Sen. Susan Collins continues to struggle in the polls. Sabato also nudged South Carolina's Senate race in the direction of Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison, moving incumbent Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham's seat from "likely Republican" to "leans Republican."


Judge: Dubuque doctor ignored ban on elective procedures, citing 'no consequences'

Iowa Capital Dispatch
By Clark Kauffman -September 22, 2020

"A Dubuque plastic surgeon knowingly violated the governor’s ban on elective medical procedures, telling a colleague there would be “no consequences” for violating the order, an administrative law judge has ruled.

The judge’s findings spring from an unemployment claim filed by Jolene Patterson, a registered nurse in the office Dr. Erin Kennedy of Plastic Surgery Aesthetics in Dubuque.

According to state records, Patterson was hired by the clinic on Aug. 29, 2019, as a full-time registered nurse. The clinic performs reconstructive surgery, cosmetic surgery, liposuction, laser surgery, Botox injections and other services, with Kennedy overseeing the business and performing medical procedures. . . .


Iowa Poll: All four of state's congressional races close heading into final stretch of campaign

"Statewide, likely voters in Iowa have a slight preference for Democrats in Congress with 47% preferring those candidates. Republican candidates win support from 45% of likely voters.

“Not one of these races looks all that solid," said pollster J. Ann Selzer of Selzer & Co.

The poll shows Republicans gaining a little ground statewide since the summer — a June Iowa Poll showed Republican candidates trailing 42% to Democrats' 47% support."

"Each of the four races falls within the margin of error of up to plus or minus 8.7 percentage points for district-level results. Democrats still hold an advantage in Iowa's 1st, 2nd and 3rd Congressional Districts, and the Republican still has an edge in the 4th Congressional District.

The district-level poll results:
1st Congressional District: 47% Democrat, 41% Republican (plus or minus 7.8 percentage points margin of error)
2nd Congressional District: 50% Democrat, 46% Republican (plus or minus 8.7 percentage points)
3rd Congressional District: 48% Democrat, 42% Republican (plus or minus 7.7 percentage points)
4th Congressional District: 44% Democrat, 49% Republican (plus or minus 7.5 percentage points)
The party advantage has shrunk since June in three of the four districts. Then, a Democrat was preferred over a Republican by a double-digit margin in the 2nd and 3rd Congressional Districts. In the 4th Congressional District, a Republican was preferred over a Democrat by 22 percentage points."


New Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll will dribble out starting Saturday at 6pm

What do Iowans think about the U.S. Senate, presidential races? A new Iowa Poll will offer answers


"Starting Saturday night at DesMoinesRegister.com and in the Des Moines Sunday Register, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll will check the pulse of Iowans on the upcoming election and other issues.

Full polling results will be released over the coming week.

The first release, at 6 p.m. Saturday online, will report likely Iowa voters' opinions on the race between Republican U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst and her Democratic challenger, Theresa Greenfield, as well as the voters' responses to questions specific to each candidate.

The release Saturday of the Senate race poll results, which will also appear in Sunday's newspaper, will be followed with results on likely Iowa voters' opinions on a question related to the U.S. House elections and then on the presidential race.

The presidential race, between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, has been competitive in Iowa, according to past polls. An Iowa Poll conducted June 7-10 showed Trump leading Biden by just 1 percentage point, 44% to 43%.

Gov. Kim Reynolds orders state flags at half-staff in honor of U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader

from the Des Moines Register. . .

"Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg dedicated her life to passionately serving her country through the law,” Reynolds said in a news release. “From caring for her family while working her way through law school to reaching the highest court in our land, she blazed a trail that inspires others to answer the call to serve."

Flags will be at half-staff on the State Capitol Building, Capitol Complex and on all state-owned public buildings, grounds and facilities throughout Iowa. Flags are to be lowered until interment.

The governor also encourages individuals, schools, municipalities, counties and other government subdivisions to do the same."
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