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Member since: Wed Nov 25, 2015, 10:17 AM
Number of posts: 10,213

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Want to predict what tonight's POLL of POLLS will show?

The big big Selzer/Des Moines Register poll comes out at 6:30 eastern tonight.
Historically, it is the most accurate predictor of the caucuses.

My guesses:
Hillary 47
Bernie 43
Undec. 5

Clown Car:
Carnival Barker 27
Televangelist 23
Thirsty Boy 17
Doctor Loon 8
KY Jelly 5
BridgeIsClosed. 4
Ohiobadhair 3
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 3
HPKiller 2
Scrotum. 2
AwwsHuck. 2
Undec. 4

Why is Ann Selzer such a good pollster?

The Des Moinez Register comes out tomorrow with the final poll before Monday's caucus.
This poll generally does the best job at picking the winners and the margins.
Why is Ann so good at this?
Here is a good (long) story about her. Yes, it's from 538. But, no, Nate didn't write it.


Would like to see Bernie have a shorter answer on What is Democratic Socialism

I think this site gives a pretty good concise description.


When do you think MOM drops and endorses?

I think MOM will drop out the day after Iowa?
I don't think he will endorse either Bernie or Hillary.

Also, I think Carson drops after Iowa and endorses Cruz.

Agree? Disagree?

I need to contact a Sanders campaign staffer.

I would like to pass along an idea.
But, I don't know how to contact a staff member.
Anybody have a good email address (rather this go to a paid staffer not a volunteer).

Would Trump-Sanders General mean massive crossover voting?

If it somehow really comes to pass that Trump and Sanders win their nominations, we could have massive crossovers.
Establishment types in both parties will freak out.
You will see many down ballot candidates refusing to endorse and appear with their nominee.
Many Repubs will vote for Sanders afraid of Trump ruining the GOP brand and many Dems will vote for Trump afraid of Sanders ruining the Dem brand.

And, purely from just an entertainment value, the general would be comedy gold.
Imagine the GOP convention that Trump would organize and Lord over.
It would be the greatest show. It would be huuuuuuge.
Imagine the debates with Trump calling Sanders a Communist and Sanders calling Trump a clown.
I, for one, can't wait to see it.

Oh, I forgot to add....I think that Bernie would kick Donald's arse winning 40 states.

Three weeks from today we get a REAL poll

Hard to believe we are only 3 weeks from Iowa.
If I had to guess right now, here's my prediction:
Clinton 49
Sanders 47

Cruz 30
Trump 28
Rubio 18
Carson 10
Other establishment fascists: the rest in single digits

Long time since there has been a new Iowa poll.

Is there a good site that shows when polls are going to be released?
I know that realclearpolitics lists and averages them after they come out.
I can't find anyplace that tells when they will come out, however.
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