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Member since: Sun Feb 14, 2016, 06:36 PM
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#FSBLetters #1: Analysis of the current situation in Russia by an active FSB analyst

Mods: when the author says "definitely please share far & wide" I take this to mean it can be copied in it's entirety. Please advise if that is incorrect.



Igor Sushko .com - Racing and Beyond

Sunday, March 06, 2022
Translation of the alleged analysis of the current situation in Russia by an active FSB analyst

My translation of the analysis of the current situation in Russia by an alleged active FSB analyst. Buckle up for a long thread and definitely please share far & wide. The full text is over 2000 words. This is a highly insightful look behind the curtain - covers many subjects. I will add clarification comments inside parenthesis where necessary. So, let's roll:

I have hardly slept at all these days, at work at almost all times, I have brain-fog. Maybe from overworking, but I feel like I am in a surreal world.

The Pandora’s Box is open – a real global horror will begin by the summer – global famine is inevitable. Russia and Ukraine were the main suppliers of grain to the world. This year’s harvest will be smaller and logistical problems will result in a catastrophe. (MY COMMENTARY: I disagree that this will result in global famine.)

I can’t say what guided those in charge to decide to proceed with the execution of this operation, but now they are methodically blaming us (FSB). We are being scolded for our analysis. Recently, we have been increasingly pressured to prepare more reports. All of these political consultants and politicians and that powers-that-be are causing chaos. Most importantly, no one knew that there will be such a war – it was concealed from everyone. For example – you are being asked to analyze various outcomes and consequences of a meteorite attack (MY COMMENTARY: Here he most likely means the West’s sanctions) – you research the mode of attack, and you are being told that it’s just a hypothetical and not to stress on the details, so you understand the report is only intended as a checkbox, and the conclusions of the analysis must be positive for Russia, otherwise you basically get interrogated for not doing good work. So, you have to write that we have all necessary measures available to nullify the effects of a given type of attack. We are completely overworked. But then it turns out that the hypothetical has turned into reality, and the analysis we’ve done on that hypothetical is total trash.

We have no answer to the sanctions because of this.

No one knew there’d be such a war, so no one prepared for these sanctions.

It’s the flipside of the secrecy – since everyone was kept in the dark, how could we prepare for it?

Kadyrov has gone nuts. We were very close to a conflict with him because the Ukrainians through their disinformation about having received intel from the FSB on his squad in Kyiv. His squad was absolutely demolished before they even began to fight and they got blown to pieces. I do not have any info that it was an FSB leak to Ukraine, so I’d give it a 1-2% chance – but can’t exclude this possibility completely.

Our Blitzkrieg has totally collapsed. It is impossible to complete the task: If Zelensky and his deputies were captured in the first 3 days, all key buildings also captured, and they were forced to read an address of their surrender to the country, then Ukraine’s resistance would have likely dissolved to a minimal level. Theoretically. But then what? Even in this IDEAL outcome, there remained an unsolvable problem: Who is the counterparty to our negotiations? If we remove Zelensky – fine – who is going to sign the agreement? If with Zelensky, then that agreement is worthless after we remove him.

ОПЗЖ (The Opposition Party in Ukraine collaborating with Russia) has refused to cooperate. Medvechuk, the coward, ran away. There is another leader – Boyko, but he refused too, even his own people won’t understand him. Wanted to bring back Tsaryova, but even our guys are against him here in Russia. Bring back Yanukovich? But how? If we are saying we can’t occupy, then the newly formed government will be overthrown in 10 minutes as soon as we leave.

To occupy? Where would we find that many people? Commandant’s office, military police, counter-intelligence, security – even at minimum resistance from the Ukrainians, we’d need over 500,000 people, not including supply & logistics. There’s a rule, if you try to cover for bad quality leadership with quantity, you’ll make everything worse. And I repeat this would be the problem in the IDEAL SCENARIO, which does not exist.

And what now? We cannot announce general mobilization for two reasons: 1) Mobilization will implode the situation inside Russia: political, economic, and social.

2) Our logistics are already over-extended today. We can send a much large contingent into Ukraine, and what would we get? Ukraine – a territorially enormous country, and their hate towards us is astronomical. Our roads simply cannot accommodate the resupply of such convoys, and everything will come to a halt. And we can’t pull it off from the management side because of the current chaos.

These two reasons exist concurrently, although just one of them is enough to break everything.

With regards to Russian military losses: I don’t know the reality – no one does. There was some information the first 2 days, but now no one knows what is happening in Ukraine. We’ve lost contact with major divisions (!!) They may re-establish contact, or may dissipate under an attack, and even the commanders don’t know how many are dead, injured, or captured. Total dead is definitely in the thousands, maybe 10,000, maybe 5,000, or maybe just 2,000. But even at our command no one knows. But probably closer to 10,000. And we are not counting losses at DNR & LNR.

Now even we kill Zelensky or take him prisoner, nothing will change. The level of hate toward us is similar to Chechnya. And now, even those loyal to us in Ukraine are publicly against us.

Because all of this was planned at the top (in Russia), because we were told that such a scenario will not happen except only if we were to be attacked first. Because we were told that we need to maximize our threats in order to negotiate an outcome through peace. Because we were already preparing protests against Zelensky without ever considering invading Ukraine.

Now, civilian losses in Ukraine will follow a geometric pattern progression, and resistance against us will only get stronger. Infantries already tried to enter cities – out of 20 paratrooper groups, only one had “provisional” success. Recall the invasion of Mosul – it’s a rule – happens with every country, nothing new.

To hold a siege? Over the last decades in Europe – Serbia being the best example, cities can remain functional under siege for years.

Humanitarian convoys from Europe to Ukraine is only a matter of time.

Our conditional deadline is June. Conditional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left. By and large, next week there will be a collapse (in Russia) to either of the two sides, simply because the situation cannot remain under current conditions.

We have no analyses, we can’t make any forecasts in this chaos, no one will be able to say anything with any certainty (in Russia).

To act through intuition, especially with high emotions, this is no poker game. But our bets will have to grow in size with hope that some option will succeed.

The tragedy is that we can easily miscalculate, and as a result lose everything.

By and large, Russia does not have an out. There are no options for a possible victory, only of losses – this is it.

100% we’ve repeated our mistake from last century, when we decided to kick the “weak” Japan in order to achieve a quick victory, and it turned our army was in a state of total calamity. Then, we started a war till the victorious end, then we started conscripting the Bolsheviks for re-education in the army. Then these barely-known Bolsheviks picked up their anti-war slogans.

From the pluses: We did everything to ensure there wasn’t even a hint that we sent penal military units to the front. If you conscript political prisoners and the socially undesirables, the moral spirit of the army will be in the negative.

The enemy is motivated. Monstrously motivated. Knows how to fight, plenty of capable commanders. They have weapons and support. We will simply establish a precedent of human catastrophe in the world.

What we are afraid of the most: The top is trying to mask old problems with new problems. Largely for this reason Donbass happened in 2014 – We needed to distract the West from the Russian Spring in Crimea, so Donbass’ so-called crisis had to pull in all of the attention and become a bargaining chip. But even bigger problems started there. Then we decided to pressure Erdogan to get 4 pipes for the Southern Stream (gas) and entered Syria. This is after Suleimani (Islamic Revolutionary Guard) knowingly provided false info to us to solve his own problems.

As a result, we couldn’t resolve the problem with Crimea, and Donbass’ problems didn’t go away. Southern Stream was reduced to 2 pipes (gas), and Syria is hanging – we leave and Assad will be toppled and we will look like idiots, and staying there is hard and pointless.

I don’t know who come up with the “Blitzkrieg of Ukraine.” Had received all the real inputs, we would have at minimum pointed out that the initial plan is arguable, and that much has to be reassessed. A lot had to be reassessed.

Now we are in crap (PG language mine) up to our necks, and we don’t know what to do. “Denazification” and “demilitarization” are not analytical categories because they don’t have concretely formulated parameters by which meeting of the objectives can be evaluated.

Now we are stuck waiting until some mentally screwed up advisor convinces the top to start a conflict with Europe, with demands to reduce the sanctions – they either loosen the sanctions or war. What if the West refuses? In that instance I won’t exclude that we will be pulled into a real international conflict, just like Hitler in 1939. Our “Z” will be equated to the Swastika.

Is there a possibility of a localized nuclear strike? Yes. Not for any military objectives. Such a weapon won’t help with the breach of the defenses. But with a goal of scaring everyone else (The West).

We are plowing to create a scenario in which to blame everything on Ukraine. Naryshkin (Director of Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia) and his SVR is digging the ground to prove that Ukraine was secretly building nuclear weapons. F*&K. They are hammering at what we’ve already analyzed and closed the book on: We can’t just make up any evidence or proof and existence of specialists and Uranium. Ukraine has a ton of depleted isotope 238 – this is nothing. The production cycle is such that you can’t do it in secret.

A dirty bomb can’t be created in secret. Ukraine’s old nuclear power plants can only produce the material as a by-product in minimal amounts. The Americans have such monitoring at these plants with MAGATE that even talking about this is stupid.

Do you know what will start in a week? Let’s let it be even in 2 weeks. We are going to be so screwed we will start reminiscing about the good ol’ hungry days of the 90s. As the markets are being closed, Nabiullina appears to be taking the right steps, but it’s like plugging holes on a ship with your fingers. The situation will break through anyway and even stronger. Nothing will be solved in 3 or 5 or 7 days any longer.

Kadyrov is kicking his hoofs not without reason. They have their own adventures. He created a name for himself as the invincible – and if he falls down once his own people will remove him.

Next. Syria. “Guys – hold on, everything will end in Ukraine and then we will fortify our positions in Syria.” And now at any moment our contingent stationed there may run out of resources, and then ridiculous heat will come…. Turkey is closing the strait, and sending supplies to Syria by air is the same as heating an oven with cash. Please notice – this is all happening at the same time, and we don’t even have time to throw it all in one pile for analysis.

Our current position is like Germany in 1943-1944 – but that’s our STARTING position in Ukraine.

Sometimes I get lost in this overwork, sometimes feels as if this is just a dream and all is as it was before.

With regards to prisons – it will be worse. The nuts will start to get tightened till blood. Everywhere. To be frank, purely technically, this is the only way to maintain any control of the situation. We are already in total mobilization mode. But we can’t remain in this mode for long, but our timetables are unknown, and it will only get worse. Governance always goes astray from mobilization. And just imagine: You can sprint 100m – but try that in a marathon.

And so, with the Ukrainian question we lunged as if going for a 100m sprint, but turned out we’d signed up for a marathon.

And this is a rather brief overview of the current events.

To offer further cynicism, I don’t believe that Putin will press the red button to destroy the entire world.

First, it’s not one person that decides, and someone will refuse. There are lots of people there and there is no single “red” button.

Second, there are certain doubts that it actually functions properly. Experience shows that the more transparent the control procedures, the easier it is to identify problems. And where it’s mirky as to who controls what and how, but always reports full of bravado, is where there are always problems.

I am not sure that the “red button” system functions according to the declared data. Besides, plutonium fuel must be changed every 10 years.

Third, and this is the most disgusting and sad, I personally do not believe in Putin’s will to sacrifice himself when he does not even allow his closest ministers and advisors to be in his vicinity. Whether it’s due to his fear of COVID or a possible assassination is irrelevant. If you are scared for the most trusted people to be near you, then how could you possibly choose to destroy yourself and those dearest to you.


Fourscore and what??!!

Art Schools of Fishes

Cat headlines

Seems the only way to end disaster capitalism is to just rip the band-aid off

There needs to be a final admission that it is and has always been a pyramid scheme. The sooner we as a society get to that point, the better the prognosis for this planet. There are no incremental solutions to the looming catastrophic consequences of centuries of abuse and neglect of this planet and it's inhabitants. Not just climate change related, but wealth inequality as well.

I don't know what it will look like, but it needs to happen now.

I've seen the metaverse - and I don't want it


I would feel better about the idea of the metaverse if it wasn’t currently dominated by companies and disaster capitalists trying to figure out a way to make more money as the real world’s resources are dwindling. The metaverse as envisioned by these people, by the tech giants, is not some promising new frontier for humanity. It is another place to spend money on things, except in this place the empty promise that buying stuff will make you happy is left even more exposed by the fact that the things in question do not physically exist.

As far as I can work out, the idea is to take the principle of artificial scarcity to an absurdist extreme – to make you want things you absolutely don’t need. The problem is not that I think this won’t work. The problem is that I think it will. The current NFT gold rush proves that people will pay tens of thousands of dollars for links to jpegs of monkeys generated by a computer, and honestly it is eroding my faith in humanity. What gaping deficiency are we living with that makes us feel the need to spend serious money on tokens that prove ownership of a procedurally generated image, just to feel part of something? This is all happening, of course, while the Earth continues to heat up, and at enormous environmental cost. I can’t help but wonder if these giant companies are so intent on selling us and the markets on the idea of a virtual future in order to distract us all from what they are doing to the real one..

I have seen what virtual worlds can do for people. I have spent my entire adult life reporting on them, and what people do in them and the meaning that they find there. So the fact that I’m now the one standing here saying that we don’t want this, feels significant. Meta has patented technology that could track what you look at and how your body moves in virtual reality in order to target ads at you. Is that the future of video games and all the other virtual places where we spend time – to have our attention continually tracked and monetised, even more so than it is in real life?

Lots of great points that I can't argue against.

Does your UVC wand actually do anything?

I've wondered about this, and figured many of you do also; very informative!

How to spot a fake UVC wand Scam

New podcast: "Finding Q"

Highly recommend to those interested in such matters. Similar to the HBO doc, but I found it more focused and cohesive. It's on Audible, but I don't know if one must be a member to listen. Eight parts, roughly 8 hours total.


Phylogeographic Mapping of Newly Discovered Coronaviruses

Phylogeographic Mapping of Newly Discovered Coronaviruses Pinpoints the Direct Progenitor of SARS-CoV-2 as Originating from Mojiang, China


In this article we reveal that the new coronavirus genomes from Asia contain sufficient information to narrow down the geographical source of the direct bat progenitor of SARS-CoV-2 to a quite small region, the south-central part of the Chinese province of Yunnan. In other words, this analysis identifies with good confidence and quite precisely the location where a bat virus that ultimately became SARS-CoV-2 left its bat reservoir host, initiating the chain of events that led to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The analysis does not specify the precise nature of this initiation event. The jump out of bats may have been into an intermediate host (that later went on to infect a human), or it may have been a jump directly into a human; or even the virus may have been procured as part of a research project.

Nevertheless, such a very substantial narrowing of the location of the jump from bats represents a major step forward. Its implications for understanding the origin of SARS-CoV-2 are profound because the requirement for a Yunnan connection markedly constrains origin theories. For example, advocates of the imported frozen food theory favoured in China now have to explain how imported food came to Wuhan carrying a virus from Yunnan (Zhou and Shi, 2021). Likewise, ideas that have circulated about possible European origins of the virus must now explain how a European patient zero could have acquired that virus from Yunnan. Also importantly, the bioweapon theory of Dr Li-Meng Yan is ruled out by the newly discovered viruses discussed here.

But perhaps the greatest significance of this finding will turn out to be that the region of Yunnan indicated as the likely geographic origin is centred on a place called the Mojiang mine. This mine is already well-known to COVID-19 origins investigators.

Much more at link. I tend to agree with their currently favored hypothesis: that the 2012 incident involving miners who contracted a respiratory disease from a bat guano-filled mineshaft represents the most parsimonious proximal origin story for Covid.

We favour this theory because it explains numerous otherwise puzzling features of SARS-CoV-2. These features are (1) the high improbability of a zoonotic appearance of a SARS-related coronavirus in Wuhan; (2) the apparently pre-adapted nature of the virus to humans (Piplani et al., 2021; van Dorp et al., 2020; Zhan et al, 2020); (3) a miner’s passage predicts a single zoonotic jump to humans [which fits the data on early human sequences (Bloom, 2021)] and which is inconsistent with most viral zoonoses, which typically feature multiple jumps into humans; (4) a miner-derived virus also explains the proclivity of SARS-CoV-2 for human lungs, which is a characteristic that many coronaviruses lack; (5) the theory can also explain the extensive attempts to deny or obscure research occurring at the WIV (see also the Zhou P. et al., 2020a addendum). The Mojiang miners hypothesis even has an evolutionary explanation for the infamous furin cleavage site. However, none of this precludes the possibility that the miner-derived virus was also lab-altered.

Since the theory specifically postulates that patient zero was a Mojiang miner who acquired one or more SARS-CoV-2-related viruses directly from the bats in the mine, the miners passaging theory matches perfectly the phylogeography of SARS-CoV-2 lineage revealed above. Indeed, it is an explicit prediction of the Mojiang miner passage theory that SARS-CoV-2 is composed of viruses originating there. Consequently, a miner passage origin is also consistent with SARS-CoV-2 being a mosaic of RmYN02, RpYN06, PrC31 and RaTG13 since, as the phylogeography shows, these viruses, or their close relatives, could have been present in the mine when the miners fell ill.

A miner passage is therefore not just compatible with but greatly strengthened by all the new evidence from wild viruses that has emerged since the pandemic began.

It's a long read, but worthwhile, IMHO. There are many more issues raised in the article that merit discussion.

Shall we discuss?

Nature: How the coronavirus infects cells--and why Delta is so dangerous

The virus that causes SARS, SARS-CoV, uses either of two host protease enzymes to break in: TMPRSS2 (pronounced ‘tempress two’) or cathepsin L. TMPRSS2 is the faster route in, but SARS-CoV often enters instead through an endosome — a lipid-surrounded bubble — which relies on cathepsin L. When virions enter cells by this route, however, antiviral proteins can trap them.

SARS-CoV-2 differs from SARS-CoV because it efficiently uses TMPRSS2, an enzyme found in high amounts on the outside of respiratory cells. First, TMPRSS2 cuts a site on the spike’s S2 subunit8. That cut exposes a run of hydrophobic amino acids that rapidly buries itself in the closest membrane — that of the host cell. Next, the extended spike folds back onto itself, like a zipper, forcing the viral and cell membranes to fuse.

The virus then ejects its genome directly into the cell. By invading in this spring-loaded manner, SARS-CoV-2 infects faster than SARS-CoV and avoids being trapped in endosomes, according to work published in April by Barclay and her colleagues at Imperial College London9.

The virus’s speedy entry using TMPRSS2 explains why the malaria drug chloroquine didn’t work in clinical trials as a COVID-19 treatment, despite early promising studies in the lab10. Those turned out to have used cells that rely exclusively on cathepsins for endosomal entry. “When the virus transmits and replicates in the human airway, it doesn’t use endosomes, so chloroquine, which is an endosomal disrupting drug, is not effective in real life,” says Barclay.

Much more at https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02039-y
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