September 29, 2022

Really Important (I know there's lots of going on) but on the debt ceiling

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/five-alarm-fire

"The DC insider sheets are already buzzing about the exciting news: House Republicans plan a new round of debt limit hostage taking next year. Of course, this is all treated as somehow totally normal, as opposed to an unconstitutional form of legislative terrorism. This piece in Axios walks through the ins and outs of it, noting the following ….
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Only Republicans do this. It only happens with Democratic Presidents. Perhaps understandably, the head of the pro-business Chamber – which is, paradoxically, somewhat reviled now in the Trumpite GOP – can’t say this directly. But journalists don’t have to repeat their nonsense. The leading contender for the key committee chairmanship that would call the shots on this is already being clear on what Republicans will do. Tell the President that he has to repeal his 2021-22 legislation or the country has to declare national bankruptcy.

For various reasons I think it is more likely than not that the US will default on its debt. Remember that we came pretty close to default in 2011. That was with a far less crazy House GOP caucus and a much stronger House leader. Kevin McCarthy, as we noted on Tuesday, is a characterologically weak man with a penchant for toadyism. They will drive the country into debt default. At the same time, there is no appetite among Democrats for rolling back the president’s climate and fiscal agenda to appease this kind of terrorism.

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But there is an out. During the lame duck session of Congress after the election, Democrats can simply raise the debt limit on their own or if possible just get rid of the debt limit altogether. It’s a completely inane thing. Only a handful of other countries in the world have something like it. It creates a two tiered system: a decision to use your credit card to buy something and a separate decision on whether to pay your credit card bill. In the real world it doesn’t work that way. I’m not sure you can get rid of the limit system without running into the filibuster. But you can definitely raise the limit through reconciliation."