October 10, 2022

The markets are on a cliffs edge...

I was lucky... made $$ with SPY put options purchased at open this morning...

But I'm seeing things that are truly disturbing.

A number of stocks have broken previous support levels and might drop precipitously now that those levels are broken.

Tech is a mess. NVDA, 52 week low hit today. TSM, the Taiwanese chip powerhouse, 52 week low hit today. AMD, 52 week low hit today.

Banking... Goldman Sachs, down 24% in the last year... JP Morgan, sitting at a 52 week low. Bank of America, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley sitting near 52 week lows... banking monster BlackRock down 35% in a year.

And this is just the start...

The Fed Rate folly is just starting to take a bite out of the market.

There will be another 75bps increase in November which will translate to 8% mortgage rates by years end and make auto loans more expensive.

And then the real implosion happens.

When mortgage rates are prohibitively high, the real estate market crashes. Hard. Like 2008/9.

I'm just telling everyone... don't believe the sweet nothings being whispered in your ears... trouble is coming.

Oh and I didn't even mention the Ukraine War or oil prices.

October 7, 2022

Al Jazeera: Separatist Forces claim to retake key Ukrainian villages in major assault

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/7/ukraine-holds-back-russian-advance-in-key-town-of-bakhmut

Bakhmut – a wine-producing and salt-mining town on the main road from Donetsk to the capital Kyiv once home to 70,000 people – would be a major prize if Russia has any hope of securing the region after invading Ukraine in February. Intense shelling was audible from the direction of Otradovka, Veselaya Dolina, and Zaitsevo, which are now apparently in the hands of forces loyal to the separatist Donetsk People’s Republic now annexed by Russia.

A Ukrainian artillery commander named Serhiy told Al Jazeera that Ukrainian soldiers were in Bakhmut because “it is a key point”. Another Ukrainian soldier called Nikolai said the Russians were “throwing all their forces at the town”.

“Artillery, air power, even helicopters are attacking our positions,” said Nikolai. “They try to approach during night and day. And it’s their elite units and mercenaries. There are no regular Russians soldiers left.”



AJ coverage is the best... accurate and without cheerleader bias.

October 4, 2022

People don't seem to "get" why cockroaches like OZ, Walker and Vance can win...

The mistake you're making... is looking at the candidates, comparing them on actual traits like honesty, intelligence, decency, respect for country and kindness.




That's not how GOP'ers think.



To them, a vote for Senator Warnock means a Schumer controlled Senate.

A vote for Walker means a roadblock for Joe Biden. It means "owning the libs".



It's all Team Red vs Team Blue in their minds... they'll vote for Satan himself if it'll "own the libs".

October 3, 2022

NATO fears Russia preparing to test Poseidon nuclear torpedo for the first time

The Poseidon reportedly creates a 1600' Radioactive Tsunami...


https://news.yahoo.com/nato-fears-russia-preparing-test-113700443.html

According to the newspaper, the key commands of the NATO member countries have received reports over the past few days regarding the movement of the nuclear submarine Belgorod, which can carry Poseidon torpedoes.

“However, Western intelligence is convinced that (the submarine) did not go beyond the White Sea (in the north of Russia),” the newspaper writes. “In fact, it should next appear in the waters of the Arctic for a series of secret tests.”

The main difference between the Belgorod and all other nuclear submarines in the world is its potential ability to carry Poseidon nuclear torpedoes, capable of traveling hundreds of miles under water and causing "nuclear tsunamis" by exploding near a coast.

https://eurasiantimes.com/russia-to-test-nuclear-drone-from-its-gigantic-belgorod-submarine/

Russia’s enormous nuclear submarine, the ‘Belgorod’ that recently became operational, is about to undertake the first-ever test of Russia’s Poseidon nuclear torpedoes, according to a top-secret NATO report cited by an Italian media outlet.

“The alarm stems from a NATO intelligence report, sent to the most important allied commands in recent days. The report concerns the movements of the Belgorod nuclear submarine, which became operational in July. Now she’s back to dive in the Arctic seas, and it is feared that her mission is to test for the first time the super-torpedo Poseidon, often referred to as ‘the weapon of the Apocalypse,” reported la Repubblica.

October 1, 2022

I don't get the Russian strategy (or lack thereof).

Background.

For people who study these things, it's common to look at all sides of conflict. For example, how does Rommel win at El Alamein? How does Germany win at Stalingrad? How do you beat Napoleon at Austerlitz?

These events are looked at with the eyes of an analyst, not a partisan or an interested party.





So... Ukraine.

I think we can all see the initial phase of the war. Putin and the Armed Forces thought the Ukrainians would fold quickly and they'd be able to install a new Leader ASAP.

Russia flailed about for months but without a clear strategy. They never sought to achieve air superiority but continued to feed helicopter and ground attack craft to the MANPADS.

They never concentrated their forces. They never made a concerted drive on Kyiv.

Blunder after blunder.

But at SOME POINT.

At some point, SOME Russian leader had to observe the situation and put together some kind of strategy.

I don't think it can all be blamed on "they suck".

There are things they COULD do but have NOT. And I've been racking my brain trying to figure it out.

WHY haven't the Russians

1) Turned the lights off in Kyiv and every major city East of Lviv? Easy to do. Can be accomplished with cruise missiles or other standoff weapons.

2) Turned off the heat?

3) Destroyed ALL rail and highway infrastructure?

4) Hit command and control targets in Kyiv? Daily.

5) Starve Ukraine by cutting off supply routes from the Western border


These are ALL asymmetrical tactical options. That means 1000 Russians can affect 100,000 Ukrainians.

I've been studying war since I was maybe 8-9 years old when my mother would take me to the Library and I'd leave with a foot tall stack of war books.

And I've NEVER seen a more lopsided affair.

It's NOT just the "Orcs suck and UKR troops are Godz" stuff... there's more to it.

The decision making has been beyond terrible. It's been unbelievable.