Future of the GOP: One man's opinion

I am a long-time member (12 years) of my county Electoral Board in a red, rural VA county. The Board is comprised to two Republicans and one Democrat (I'm the Dem).

Today we completed our canvass of the Nov 8 election, preparing official results to go to the State Dept of Elections. After completing a mountain of confusing paperwork, we each got a cup of coffee and relaxed.

With no prompting from anyone, one of the Republicans said "The Republican Party is history." This guy reads a lot of history and often cites historical examples for his opinions. He likened today's situation for the GOP to the situation in 1912.

-- Teddy Roosevelt had served one term, succeeded by Taft.
-- TR wanted to be the Republican nominee for the 1912 election, however, the GOP nominated Taft.
-- TR split with the GOP and formed his own party, the Bull Moose Party.
-- TR and Taft split the GOP vote thereby enabling Woodrow Wilson to waltz into the White House by winning 40 states.

He cited the condition of our County Republican Committee and that of two neighboring counties as typical of GOP organizations from counties up to the national party:
-- About 1/3 "normal" Republicans
-- About 1/3 "wackjob patriots" and "old Tea Partiers."
-- About 1/3 Trumpsters

My Republican friend is convinced that:
-- Trump will split the GOP by not winning the nomination, forming a third party, or running as an Independent with no party support but taking 20-30% of voters with him.
-- The GOP will collapse and eventually will emerge as a serious political party, meanwhile, Democrats will control Congress and the White House for a decade.

Just one man's opinion from a sleepy, rural VA county -- but he may be on to something.