Mr.WeRP
Mr.WeRP's Journal77 Million Have Voted, 32 million mail-in ballots outstanding; Iowa in Play! FINAL Swing State Early Vote Update!
This is an update of where the election is on early voting and as it is compared to the vote totals from 2020. Data is sourced from https://election.lab.ufl.edu
Previous update here: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219633537
NEW: I am including Iowa given the final polls there show Harris could win. Also for each state, I call out the reasons Harris could or is winning.
Summary: with early voting wrapped up in most states and only outstanding mail in ballots to be returned, several swing states have already matched and/or exceeded their 2020 early voting total. In particular, MI with 105% of 2020 early voting, GA at 100%, NC at 97%, AZ at 90% and FL with a shocking 87%. This is a great sign for Harris as she needs high turnout to win. Additionally, the gender demographics of early voting has maintained a 10 point advantage with more than 77 million votes cast. When you consider the gender gap in preference and gender gap on turnout, it is no wonder polling of early voters have Harris at 62% of the vote. Assuming we have the same turnout as in 2020 with 156 million voters, and the ballot return rate is the same at 70%, then Harris already has 51 million votes going into November 5th. Trump would need 65% of the votes on Tuesday to tie the popular vote with Harris. I do not see that as being likely. One thing is certain, women have turned out. This election is a referendum on Roe v. Wade.
Forecast: I will make a forecast here based on the following: Assume men outvote women on Tuesday by 5 points (52.5/47.5). This could conceivably give Trump 55% of the vote on Tuesday. That means Harris would win with 56% to Trump at 42% with some losses to independent candidates. I see Harris getting 325 Electoral Votes with the following electoral college result with that percentage (yes, I know it seems like it should be higher):
Key: When states share party affiliation, that is shown by percent breakdown. When states share gender, that is shown since there is an obvious gender gap this election cycle. (EDIT: WI does not share early voting data.) I am also considering FL a swing state this election cycle. I would have included TX but they do not share early voting data. Differentials from the prior update are shown with + or - values in parenthesis.
AZ - Harris could win if independents swing her way
=================
Total: 2,218,682 (+391,790) [votes per day: 156,716]
Percent of 2020: 90 (+18)
Percent Dem: 32.7 (-1.1)
Percent Rep: 40.9 (-0.4)
FL - Harris could win with high turnout of Puerto Ricans, women and independents
=================
Total: 7,833,099 (+1,612,454) [votes per day: 644,982]
Percent of 2020: 87 (+18)
Percent Dem: 32.7 (-0.4)
Percent Rep: 43.8 (-1)
IA - Swinging Harris, likely due to large independent turnout and turnout of women
=================
Total: 553,804
Percent of 2020: 55
Percent Dem: 39.6
Percent Rep: 39.8
GA - Swinging Harris on turnout of women
=================
Total: 4,013,193 (+1,181,681) [votes per day: 472,672]
Percent of 2020: 100 (+13)
Percent Female: 55.6 (+0)
Percent Male: 43.5 (-0.1)
MI - Swinging Harris on turnout of women
=================
Total: 2,983,444 (+785,559) [votes per day: 314,223]
Percent of 2020: 105 (+12.7)
Percent Female: 55.0 (-0.2)
Percent Male: 44.4 (0.1)
NV - Harris could win on independents, women
=================
Total: 872,011 (+205,430) [votes per day: 82,172]
Percent of 2020: 78 (+0.3)
Percent Dem: 34.1 (-0.6)
Percent Rep: 38.9 (-0.8)
NC - Swinging Harris with women and independents
=================
Total: 4,439,451 (+817,515) [votes per day: 327,006]
Percent of 2020: 97 (+18)
Percent Dem: 32.4 (-0.3)
Percent Rep: 33.3 (-0.7)
Percent Female: 51.7 (-0.2)
Percent Male: 41.2 (-0.3)
PA - Swinging Harris on large Democratic turnout
=================
Total: 1,739,606 (+192,120) [votes per day: 66,323]
Percent of 2020: 66 (+7)
Percent Dem: 55.9 (-1)
Percent Rep: 32.9 (+0.5)
VA - Swinging Harris on large turnout of women
=================
Total: 2,008,586 (+316,198) [votes per day: 126,479]
Percent of 2020: 73.4 58 (+16.4)
Percent Female: 55.6 (+0.2)
Percent Male: 44.4 (-0.2)
Some hope: my neighbor is a long time conservative
We were going to a beer tasting tonight and he made a joke about me voting for Trump. I laughed as we both knew that was never going to happen. Then he brought up the mic incident and said no one should ever vote for Trump. I was surprised. I never expected this guy to be against Trump but even more so FOR Harris. He revealed he voted for her. My jaw was on the floor. I asked about his conservative stances… he said “Democracy matters more.” This was a huge relief to me to hear. He is very much a Liz Cheney Republican… and well, I guess he proved that tonight.
60 MILLION HAVE VOTED ALREADY! 38 million outstanding mail-in ballots. Swing State Early Vote Update!
This is an update of where the election is on early voting and as it is compared to the vote totals from 2020. Data is sourced from https://election.lab.ufl.edu
Previous update here: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219620223
Summary: turnout in early voting is massive with just under a week to November 5th. All swing states have surpassed 60% of the total early voting turnout for 2020 except for PA and VA. The largest early voting turnout so far is in GA, MI, and NC which is at 77%+ of total early vote turnout in 2020 with GA in the lead at 87%! Dems rate in early voting for PA is dropping but still lead by a large margin. The gender gap remains large in early voting with women outpacing men by 10+ points in all states that report it. Independent voters are turning out, eating into participation rates of both Dems and Reps in states that report it.
Key: When states share party affiliation, that is shown by percent breakdown. When states share gender, that is shown since there is an obvious gender gap this election cycle. (EDIT: WI does not share early voting data.) I am also considering FL a swing state this election cycle. I would have included TX but they do not share early voting data. Differentials from the prior update are shown with + or - values in parenthesis.
AZ
=================
Total: 1,826,892 (+532,670 since last update) [votes per day: 266,335]
Percent of 2020: 74 (+21.6)
Percent Dem: 33.8 (-1.3)
Percent Rep: 41.3 (-0.6)
FL
=================
Total: 6,220,645 (+1,621,721) [votes per day: 810,860]
Percent of 2020: 69.3 (+18.3)
Percent Dem: 33.1 (-0.9)
Percent Rep: 44.8 (-0.1)
GA
=================
Total: 2,831,512 (+650,840) [votes per day: 325,420]
Percent of 2020: 87 (+17)
Percent Female: 55.6 (+0.2)
Percent Male: 43.6 (-0.9)
MI
=================
Total: 2,197,885 (+301,780) [votes per day: 150,890]
Percent of 2020: 77.3 (+10.3)
Percent Female: 55.2 (-0.2)
Percent Male: 44.3 (0)
NV
=================
Total: 872,011 (+227,958) [votes per day: 113,979]
Percent of 2020: 77.7 (+20.3)
Percent Dem: 34.1 (-0.6)
Percent Rep: 38.9 (-0.8)
NC
=================
Total: 3,621,936 (+801,934) [votes per day: 400,967]
Percent of 2020: 79 (+17.7)
Percent Dem: 32.7 (-0.5)
Percent Rep: 34.0 (-0.1)
Percent Female: 51.9 (0)
Percent Male: 41.5 (-0.4)
PA
=================
Total: 1,547,486 (+132,647) [votes per day: 66,323]
Percent of 2020: 59 (+5)
Percent Dem: 56.9 (-1.3)
Percent Rep: 32.4 (+1)
VA
=================
Total: 1,692,388 1,586,707 (+105,681) [votes per day: 52,840]
Percent of 2020: 58 (+0)
Percent Female: 55.4 (+0)
Percent Male: 44.6 (-0)
Trump has either had a STROKE or has suddenly become FEEBLE.
There is no way that man is ok. He is literally unfit.
Video of Trump telling his supporters to vote multiple times
https://www.reddit.com/r/thedavidpakmanshow/s/TWmu1Y6FP5Trump is telling his voters to vote by mail and then vote in person. The only way that is allowed is in states like PA but only if your mail in ballot is rejected. You must be informed of this to be able to cast a provisional vote. Oh, and Trump is challenging the law in PA that allows this type of ballot curing.
What he is doing in the video is blatantly illegal.
Hmm: Donald Trump and Mike Johnson Have a "Little Secret" Election Plan
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/donald-trump-mike-johnson-little-secret-2024-electionThe former president told the MAGA faithful at MSG that he and the House Speaker, a close ally who supported his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, had a “secret” that would help Republicans “do really well.”
Some journalists and politicians have interpreted Trump’s off-the-cuff remarks, delivered as he thanked House Speaker Mike Johnson for appearing at the MSG event, as a possible signal that Johnson is prepared to override the electoral college, should Vice President Kamala Harris win. “I suspect Donald Trump’s ‘little secret’ plan with Mike Johnson is a backup plan for when he loses,” Rep. Dan Goldman said on CNN.
…
Trump and Johnson have become close political allies, though the Louisiana congressman was not House Speaker under Trump. The two men reportedly speak often, and Johnson recently said that Trump “fully” supports him staying on for another term as speaker if Republicans keep the House next month. (If Democrats win the House next month, Hakeem Jeffries would likely be elected Speaker on January 3, 2025, just three days before presidential election results are certified in the House.)
Swing State Early Voting Update 2; 45,901,810 Americans have voted.
This is an update of where the election is on early voting and as it is compared to the vote totals from 2020. Data is sourced from https://election.lab.ufl.edu
Previous update here: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219601093
When states share party affiliation, that is shown by percent breakdown. When states share gender, that is shown since there is an obvious gender gap this election cycle. (EDIT: WI does not share early voting data.) I am also considering FL a swing state this election cycle. I would have included TX but they do not share early voting data. Differentials from the prior update are shown with + or - values in parenthesis.
Summary: turnout in early voting is picking up with just over a week to November 5th. All swing states have surpassed 50% of the total early voting turnout for 2020. The largest early voting turnout so far is in GA, MI, and NC which is at 60%+ of total early vote turnout in 2020. Dems are outpacing Reps in early voting for PA by large margins. The gender gap remains large in early voting with women outpacing men by 10+ points in all states that report it. Additionally, party affiliation rates seem to be largely holding. Small changes in party turnout show Independents are increasing their rate of participation at the expense of Democrats (that is, Republicans are mostly not increasing their rate of turnout). 21 million mail in ballots are yet to be returned.
AZ
=================
Total: 1,294,222 (+377,534 since last update)
Percent of 2020: 52.4 (+15.4)
Percent Dem: 35.1 (-0.8)
Percent Rep: 41.9 (+0.1)
FL
=================
Total: 4,598,924 (+1,780,999)
Percent of 2020: 51 (+21)
Percent Dem: 34 (-2.3)
Percent Rep: 44.9 (+1.4)
GA
=================
Total: 2,831,512 (+671,532)
Percent of 2020: 70 (+16.2)
Percent Female: 55.4 (+0.1)
Percent Male: 44.5 (+0.4)
MI
=================
Total: 1,896,105 (+587,008)
Percent of 2020: 67 (+20.9)
Percent Female: 55.4 (-1)
Percent Male: 44.3 (+0.9)
NV
=================
Total: 644,053 (+311,385)
Percent of 2020: 57.4 (+27.8)
Percent Dem: 34.7 (-1.3)
Percent Rep: 39.7 (+0.2)
NC
=================
Total: 2,820,002 (+812,343)
Percent of 2020: 61.3 (+17.6)
Percent Dem: 33.3 (-0.6)
Percent Rep: 34.1 (-0.1)
Percent Female: 51.9 (-0.2)
Percent Male: 41.9 (-0.3)
PA
=================
Total: 1,414,839 (+293,935)
Percent of 2020: 54 (+11.4)
Percent Dem: 58.2 (-2.8)
Percent Rep: 31.4 (+0.8)
VA
=================
Total: 1,586,707 (+381,645)
Percent of 2020: 58 (+14)
Percent Female: 55.4 (+0.2)
Percent Male: 44.6 (-0.2)
ProPublica HAS THE RECEIPTS: Trump Plans To Use Military Against Americans To Squash Political Opposition
https://www.propublica.org/article/video-donald-trump-russ-vought-center-renewing-america-magaIn private speeches delivered in 2023 and 2024, Russell Vought, who served as Trump’s director of the Office of Management and Budget, described his work crafting legal justifications so that military leaders or government lawyers would not stop Trump’s executive actions.
He said the plans are a response to a “Marxist takeover” of the country; likened the moment to 1776 and 1860, when the country was at war or on the brink of it; and said the timing of Trump’s candidacy was a “gift of God.”
…
Vought’s plans track closely with Trump’s campaign rhetoric about using the military against domestic protesters or what Trump has called the “enemy within.” Trump’s desire to use the military on U.S. soil recently prompted his longest-serving chief of staff, retired Marine Gen. John Kelly, to speak out, saying Trump “certainly prefers the dictator approach to government.”
Also, here is a video link of a Vought speech excerpt from the article:
And FUCK this guy for using a Tolkien reference.
Elon Musk Is Committing a Crime--but It Doesn't Matter Because He's Rich
https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/elon-musk-is-committing-a-crime/…
The problem with Musk’s scheme is that, in order to get the money, you have to be registered to vote. By making voter registration key to getting the money, Musk is trying to induce people who are not registered to register to vote. That is illegal. As the elections law expert Rick Hasen points out, paying people, bribing people, or giving people pretty much anything of monetary value to induce them to register to vote is a violation of federal law.
…
I know there are still people who would like to defend Garland’s historic inability to enforce any laws against Republican political actors, but, honestly, Garland’s response is beyond pathetic. It takes a Google search and half an hour of Westlaw access to “investigate” whether “Hoo boy, register to vote and have a chance to win a million dollars” violates applicable federal standards. The Department of Justice’s own “Election Crimes Manual” explains that what Musk is doing is illegal. Garland need only “investigate” the rules written down by his own institution to figure out that Musk is in violation of the law.
America Is Run By Oligarchs
If you have any doubt, just look at the owners of the WaPo and LATimes.
They have broken tradition since their founding: Presidential Endorsements?
Why? Because their billionaire owners are cowards and do not want to offend Trump. Both papers were set to endorse Kamala. If Trump wins, they expect retribution from Trump when he's President and want to avoid that, or worse, they want Trump to be President and so are withholding their editors' endorsements.
If you need more proof, just look at all the people who have been convicted so far of Jan 6. It's all the peons. Not one person who funded and/or orchestrated the failed coup has been convicted yet, including the head.
We didn't need Jan 6 to know this though. Just ask the uncountable number of people who have been wrongly convicted as part of the Prison Industrial Complex in this country. If you've got wealth, you have a get out of jail free card in your back pocket. These fuckers could shoot someone on 5th Avenue in broad daylight and get away with it.
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Member since: Thu Feb 29, 2024, 12:20 AMNumber of posts: 1,098