Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

Mr.WeRP

Mr.WeRP's Journal
Mr.WeRP's Journal
November 5, 2024

This seems appropriate for today

If you haven’t voted yet, get out and vote!

November 4, 2024

In defending his $1 million giveaway, Musks lawyers admit it is a scam

https://www.reuters.com/legal/judge-weighs-challenge-elon-musks-1-million-voter-giveaway-2024-11-04/?utm_source=reddit.com

Elon Musk lawyer says $1 million voter giveaway winners are not random


PHILADELPHIA, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Elon Musk's pro-Trump group does not choose the winners of its $1 million-a-day giveaway to registered voters at random, but instead picks people who would be good spokespeople for its agenda, a lawyer for the billionaire said on Monday.
Musk lawyer Chris Gober was trying to persuade a Pennsylvania judge that the giveaway was not an "illegal lottery," as Philadelphia district attorney Lawrence Krasner alleged in a lawsuit seeking to block the contest ahead of Tuesday's U.S. presidential election.

"There is no prize to be won, instead recipients must fulfill contractual obligations to serve as a spokesperson for the PAC," Gober said in the hearing before Judge Angelo Foglietta.
November 4, 2024

Pete Buttigieg does fascinating format with undecided voters

I’ve been seeing this format a few times with people like Ben Shapiro and other conservative bloggers. I was so happy to see Pete take this on and he did fantastically! It’s an hour long but worth the watch. Pete makes 4 big claims in turn and then the voters surrounding him each get a turn to challenge and ask questions about his claim. This is a milder version than the ones I’ve seen, as it is more informative than confrontational. Even so, it is fascinating to watch the realization of these voters.

November 3, 2024

77 Million Have Voted, 32 million mail-in ballots outstanding; Iowa in Play! FINAL Swing State Early Vote Update!

This is an update of where the election is on early voting and as it is compared to the vote totals from 2020. Data is sourced from https://election.lab.ufl.edu

Previous update here: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219633537

NEW: I am including Iowa given the final polls there show Harris could win. Also for each state, I call out the reasons Harris could or is winning.

Summary: with early voting wrapped up in most states and only outstanding mail in ballots to be returned, several swing states have already matched and/or exceeded their 2020 early voting total. In particular, MI with 105% of 2020 early voting, GA at 100%, NC at 97%, AZ at 90% and FL with a shocking 87%. This is a great sign for Harris as she needs high turnout to win. Additionally, the gender demographics of early voting has maintained a 10 point advantage with more than 77 million votes cast. When you consider the gender gap in preference and gender gap on turnout, it is no wonder polling of early voters have Harris at 62% of the vote. Assuming we have the same turnout as in 2020 with 156 million voters, and the ballot return rate is the same at 70%, then Harris already has 51 million votes going into November 5th. Trump would need 65% of the votes on Tuesday to tie the popular vote with Harris. I do not see that as being likely. One thing is certain, women have turned out. This election is a referendum on Roe v. Wade.

Forecast: I will make a forecast here based on the following: Assume men outvote women on Tuesday by 5 points (52.5/47.5). This could conceivably give Trump 55% of the vote on Tuesday. That means Harris would win with 56% to Trump at 42% with some losses to independent candidates. I see Harris getting 325 Electoral Votes with the following electoral college result with that percentage (yes, I know it seems like it should be higher):



Key: When states share party affiliation, that is shown by percent breakdown. When states share gender, that is shown since there is an obvious gender gap this election cycle. (EDIT: WI does not share early voting data.) I am also considering FL a swing state this election cycle. I would have included TX but they do not share early voting data. Differentials from the prior update are shown with + or - values in parenthesis.

AZ - Harris could win if independents swing her way
=================
Total: 2,218,682 (+391,790) [votes per day: 156,716]
Percent of 2020: 90 (+18)
Percent Dem: 32.7 (-1.1)
Percent Rep: 40.9 (-0.4)

FL - Harris could win with high turnout of Puerto Ricans, women and independents
=================
Total: 7,833,099 (+1,612,454) [votes per day: 644,982]
Percent of 2020: 87 (+18)
Percent Dem: 32.7 (-0.4)
Percent Rep: 43.8 (-1)

IA - Swinging Harris, likely due to large independent turnout and turnout of women
=================
Total: 553,804
Percent of 2020: 55
Percent Dem: 39.6
Percent Rep: 39.8

GA - Swinging Harris on turnout of women
=================
Total: 4,013,193 (+1,181,681) [votes per day: 472,672]
Percent of 2020: 100 (+13)
Percent Female: 55.6 (+0)
Percent Male: 43.5 (-0.1)

MI - Swinging Harris on turnout of women
=================
Total: 2,983,444 (+785,559) [votes per day: 314,223]
Percent of 2020: 105 (+12.7)
Percent Female: 55.0 (-0.2)
Percent Male: 44.4 (0.1)

NV - Harris could win on independents, women
=================
Total: 872,011 (+205,430) [votes per day: 82,172]
Percent of 2020: 78 (+0.3)
Percent Dem: 34.1 (-0.6)
Percent Rep: 38.9 (-0.8)

NC - Swinging Harris with women and independents
=================
Total: 4,439,451 (+817,515) [votes per day: 327,006]
Percent of 2020: 97 (+18)
Percent Dem: 32.4 (-0.3)
Percent Rep: 33.3 (-0.7)
Percent Female: 51.7 (-0.2)
Percent Male: 41.2 (-0.3)

PA - Swinging Harris on large Democratic turnout
=================
Total: 1,739,606 (+192,120) [votes per day: 66,323]
Percent of 2020: 66 (+7)
Percent Dem: 55.9 (-1)
Percent Rep: 32.9 (+0.5)

VA - Swinging Harris on large turnout of women
=================
Total: 2,008,586 (+316,198) [votes per day: 126,479]
Percent of 2020: 73.4 58 (+16.4)
Percent Female: 55.6 (+0.2)
Percent Male: 44.4 (-0.2)

November 3, 2024

Some hope: my neighbor is a long time conservative

We were going to a beer tasting tonight and he made a joke about me voting for Trump. I laughed as we both knew that was never going to happen. Then he brought up the mic incident and said no one should ever vote for Trump. I was surprised. I never expected this guy to be against Trump but even more so FOR Harris. He revealed he voted for her. My jaw was on the floor. I asked about his conservative stances… he said “Democracy matters more.” This was a huge relief to me to hear. He is very much a Liz Cheney Republican… and well, I guess he proved that tonight.

October 31, 2024

60 MILLION HAVE VOTED ALREADY! 38 million outstanding mail-in ballots. Swing State Early Vote Update!

This is an update of where the election is on early voting and as it is compared to the vote totals from 2020. Data is sourced from https://election.lab.ufl.edu

Previous update here: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219620223

Summary: turnout in early voting is massive with just under a week to November 5th. All swing states have surpassed 60% of the total early voting turnout for 2020 except for PA and VA. The largest early voting turnout so far is in GA, MI, and NC which is at 77%+ of total early vote turnout in 2020 with GA in the lead at 87%! Dems rate in early voting for PA is dropping but still lead by a large margin. The gender gap remains large in early voting with women outpacing men by 10+ points in all states that report it. Independent voters are turning out, eating into participation rates of both Dems and Reps in states that report it.

Key: When states share party affiliation, that is shown by percent breakdown. When states share gender, that is shown since there is an obvious gender gap this election cycle. (EDIT: WI does not share early voting data.) I am also considering FL a swing state this election cycle. I would have included TX but they do not share early voting data. Differentials from the prior update are shown with + or - values in parenthesis.

AZ
=================
Total: 1,826,892 (+532,670 since last update) [votes per day: 266,335]
Percent of 2020: 74 (+21.6)
Percent Dem: 33.8 (-1.3)
Percent Rep: 41.3 (-0.6)

FL
=================
Total: 6,220,645 (+1,621,721) [votes per day: 810,860]
Percent of 2020: 69.3 (+18.3)
Percent Dem: 33.1 (-0.9)
Percent Rep: 44.8 (-0.1)

GA
=================
Total: 2,831,512 (+650,840) [votes per day: 325,420]
Percent of 2020: 87 (+17)
Percent Female: 55.6 (+0.2)
Percent Male: 43.6 (-0.9)

MI
=================
Total: 2,197,885 (+301,780) [votes per day: 150,890]
Percent of 2020: 77.3 (+10.3)
Percent Female: 55.2 (-0.2)
Percent Male: 44.3 (0)

NV
=================
Total: 872,011 (+227,958) [votes per day: 113,979]
Percent of 2020: 77.7 (+20.3)
Percent Dem: 34.1 (-0.6)
Percent Rep: 38.9 (-0.8)

NC
=================
Total: 3,621,936 (+801,934) [votes per day: 400,967]
Percent of 2020: 79 (+17.7)
Percent Dem: 32.7 (-0.5)
Percent Rep: 34.0 (-0.1)
Percent Female: 51.9 (0)
Percent Male: 41.5 (-0.4)

PA
=================
Total: 1,547,486 (+132,647) [votes per day: 66,323]
Percent of 2020: 59 (+5)
Percent Dem: 56.9 (-1.3)
Percent Rep: 32.4 (+1)

VA
=================
Total: 1,692,388 1,586,707 (+105,681) [votes per day: 52,840]
Percent of 2020: 58 (+0)
Percent Female: 55.4 (+0)
Percent Male: 44.6 (-0)

October 31, 2024

Trump has either had a STROKE or has suddenly become FEEBLE.



There is no way that man is ok. He is literally unfit.
October 29, 2024

Video of Trump telling his supporters to vote multiple times

https://www.reddit.com/r/thedavidpakmanshow/s/TWmu1Y6FP5

Trump is telling his voters to vote by mail and then vote in person. The only way that is allowed is in states like PA but only if your mail in ballot is rejected. You must be informed of this to be able to cast a provisional vote. Oh, and Trump is challenging the law in PA that allows this type of ballot curing.

What he is doing in the video is blatantly illegal.
October 29, 2024

Hmm: Donald Trump and Mike Johnson Have a "Little Secret" Election Plan

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/donald-trump-mike-johnson-little-secret-2024-election

The former president told the MAGA faithful at MSG that he and the House Speaker, a close ally who supported his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, had a “secret” that would help Republicans “do really well.”

Speaking to a crowd of supporters at New York’s Madison Square Garden on Sunday, former president Donald Trump alluded to a “secret” plan that he said would help Republicans do “really well” in the House of Representatives.

Some journalists and politicians have interpreted Trump’s off-the-cuff remarks, delivered as he thanked House Speaker Mike Johnson for appearing at the MSG event, as a possible signal that Johnson is prepared to override the electoral college, should Vice President Kamala Harris win. “I suspect Donald Trump’s ‘little secret’ plan with Mike Johnson is a backup plan for when he loses,” Rep. Dan Goldman said on CNN.

Trump and Johnson have become close political allies, though the Louisiana congressman was not House Speaker under Trump. The two men reportedly speak often, and Johnson recently said that Trump “fully” supports him staying on for another term as speaker if Republicans keep the House next month. (If Democrats win the House next month, Hakeem Jeffries would likely be elected Speaker on January 3, 2025, just three days before presidential election results are certified in the House.)
October 28, 2024

Swing State Early Voting Update 2; 45,901,810 Americans have voted.

This is an update of where the election is on early voting and as it is compared to the vote totals from 2020. Data is sourced from https://election.lab.ufl.edu

Previous update here: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219601093

When states share party affiliation, that is shown by percent breakdown. When states share gender, that is shown since there is an obvious gender gap this election cycle. (EDIT: WI does not share early voting data.) I am also considering FL a swing state this election cycle. I would have included TX but they do not share early voting data. Differentials from the prior update are shown with + or - values in parenthesis.

Summary: turnout in early voting is picking up with just over a week to November 5th. All swing states have surpassed 50% of the total early voting turnout for 2020. The largest early voting turnout so far is in GA, MI, and NC which is at 60%+ of total early vote turnout in 2020. Dems are outpacing Reps in early voting for PA by large margins. The gender gap remains large in early voting with women outpacing men by 10+ points in all states that report it. Additionally, party affiliation rates seem to be largely holding. Small changes in party turnout show Independents are increasing their rate of participation at the expense of Democrats (that is, Republicans are mostly not increasing their rate of turnout). 21 million mail in ballots are yet to be returned.

AZ
=================
Total: 1,294,222 (+377,534 since last update)
Percent of 2020: 52.4 (+15.4)
Percent Dem: 35.1 (-0.8)
Percent Rep: 41.9 (+0.1)

FL
=================
Total: 4,598,924 (+1,780,999)
Percent of 2020: 51 (+21)
Percent Dem: 34 (-2.3)
Percent Rep: 44.9 (+1.4)

GA
=================
Total: 2,831,512 (+671,532)
Percent of 2020: 70 (+16.2)
Percent Female: 55.4 (+0.1)
Percent Male: 44.5 (+0.4)

MI
=================
Total: 1,896,105 (+587,008)
Percent of 2020: 67 (+20.9)
Percent Female: 55.4 (-1)
Percent Male: 44.3 (+0.9)

NV
=================
Total: 644,053 (+311,385)
Percent of 2020: 57.4 (+27.8)
Percent Dem: 34.7 (-1.3)
Percent Rep: 39.7 (+0.2)

NC
=================
Total: 2,820,002 (+812,343)
Percent of 2020: 61.3 (+17.6)
Percent Dem: 33.3 (-0.6)
Percent Rep: 34.1 (-0.1)
Percent Female: 51.9 (-0.2)
Percent Male: 41.9 (-0.3)

PA
=================
Total: 1,414,839 (+293,935)
Percent of 2020: 54 (+11.4)
Percent Dem: 58.2 (-2.8)
Percent Rep: 31.4 (+0.8)

VA
=================
Total: 1,586,707 (+381,645)
Percent of 2020: 58 (+14)
Percent Female: 55.4 (+0.2)
Percent Male: 44.6 (-0.2)

Profile Information

Member since: Thu Feb 29, 2024, 12:20 AM
Number of posts: 720
Latest Discussions»Mr.WeRP's Journal