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Bernardo de La Paz

(48,955 posts)

10. Damn "educated" people don't understand the simplest thing about "exponential growth". They

Reply to OnDoutside (Original post)

Mon Mar 30, 2020, 09:17 AM

Mar 2020

They think "exponential" simply means "big" or "fast", partly because the stupid media use it that way too.

But if a LAWYER is going to expound on epidemics they need to understand the most basic thing about disease spread. Exponential is not additive or multiplicative. It is a power function.

Doubling every three days does not mean 4x after 6, then 6x after 9, 8x after 12, 10x after 15, and 12x after 18. No.

It means 4x after 6, 8x after 9, 16x after 12, 32x after 15, and 64x after 18.

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Highlight:

Richard A. Epstein behind the The Contrarian Coronavirus Theory That Informed the Trump Admin. [View all] OnDoutside Mar 2020 OP

Jesus Wept, Sir The Magistrate Mar 2020 #1

"The question to ask... [is] whether I had the right model" JHB Mar 2020 #2

The problem with his "right model" is that he picked the outcome he wanted and then built a model... Botany Mar 2020 #3

That's been true since the 70s... JHB Mar 2020 #9

Public relations gaffe lol GusBob Mar 2020 #4

Serious question malaise Mar 2020 #5

Ain't that the truth /nt bucolic_frolic Mar 2020 #12

Epstein knows more about medicine than doctors because he went to law school dalton99a Mar 2020 #13

What a fucking idiot malaise Mar 2020 #15

That's the problem with this administration, refusal to believe true experts..... groundloop Mar 2020 #16

How will it look best for Don the murderous Con malaise Mar 2020 #24

Good question! jrthin Mar 2020 #18

Godspeed Karma....eom scrabblequeen40 Mar 2020 #6

+1 dalton99a Mar 2020 #14

Cool tactic just keep moving the decimal point. gibraltar72 Mar 2020 #7

They can explain away everything superpatriotman Mar 2020 #8

Damn "educated" people don't understand the simplest thing about "exponential growth". They Bernardo de La Paz Mar 2020 #10

So this fucking legal scholar Richard Epstein pretended to be a medical doctor and an epidemiologist dalton99a Mar 2020 #11

"Richard Epstein pretended to be a medical doctor and an epidemiologist" and so has Trump. Botany Mar 2020 #26

Ohio U? True Blue American Mar 2020 #31

I kind of remember my time there Botany Mar 2020 #33

That is what my Son says about his College Days! True Blue American Mar 2020 #35

That's what happens when lawyers step out of their lane paleotn Mar 2020 #17

Ineptstein malaise Mar 2020 #19

+1 Hugin Mar 2020 #21

So, a lawyer is giving public health medical advice? Hugin Mar 2020 #20

And this guy came out of Brooklyn? LiberalFighter Mar 2020 #22

Even SCIENTISTS won't predict planetary dynamics like this more than ten days out. ancianita Mar 2020 #23

S'ok, Prof., it created a great market short /nt bucolic_frolic Mar 2020 #25

Not "simple stupid error"--simple stupid person. Lonestarblue Mar 2020 #27

The question is whether a LAWYER should be making predictions at all. Laelth Mar 2020 #28

The amazing thing is he ends up shouting down the journalist about expertise muriel_volestrangler Mar 2020 #34

"if the total death toll increases at about the same rate..." localroger Mar 2020 #29

Meanwhile True Blue American Mar 2020 #30

OMG, according to Wikipedia, he's a "fan" of Calvin Coolidge. greatauntoftriplets Mar 2020 #32