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brush

(53,724 posts)

50. Sorry, it was only 2000 for the day. Only.

Reply to onenote (Reply #24)

Sat Apr 18, 2020, 03:09 PM

Apr 2020

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How exactly are there "only" supposed to be 60,000 deaths? [View all] D_Master81 Apr 2020 OP

Only by flattening the curve, sustainably. But it could easily be four times that if "opened up". nt Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2020 #1

Unfortunately staying closed isn't sustainable either Amishman Apr 2020 #59

Trump will keep moving the target no matter how it shakes out he'll declare victory: captain queeg Apr 2020 #2

That's one reason I hated to see that "million" number out there Ferrets are Cool Apr 2020 #5

By August it should be clearer whether we have a nice German death curve or an Italian one Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2020 #12

Probably different curves in different regions of the country. Crunchy Frog Apr 2020 #20

It is even crazier than that! SoonerPride Apr 2020 #3

I don't know if it will be that much qazplm135 Apr 2020 #11

60,000 seems really low, I'll be surprised if the US does not pass that within the next 2 to 3 weeks Celerity Apr 2020 #21

+1 uponit7771 Apr 2020 #35

Clearly there is going be a lot more. LisaL Apr 2020 #4

And I'm sure that number is under the actual number. Marie Marie Apr 2020 #7

Yes, a lot more. There were 4500 yesterday, the highest daily total so far. At that rate it's 31k... brush Apr 2020 #16

This message was self-deleted by its author 0rganism Apr 2020 #23

The 4500 included 3778 deaths that occurred between March 11 and April 14. onenote Apr 2020 #24

Still... ProfessorGAC Apr 2020 #27

Sorry, it was only 2000 for the day. Only. brush Apr 2020 #50

How do you get that number? onenote Apr 2020 #52

Google. It's been near that daily for a while now. brush Apr 2020 #53

almost 39,000 now malaise Apr 2020 #54

A reporter needs to ask malevolent in WH, JUST 60,000? What do you mean by JUST? RestoreAmerica2020 Apr 2020 #6

That model is ridiculous. Has been since the start. Squinch Apr 2020 #8

Now the U of WA is a right wing think tank? former9thward Apr 2020 #9

2.2 million was if nothing was done D_Master81 Apr 2020 #13

That is a false assumption. former9thward Apr 2020 #31

"By May 19 there could be as ... little as 34,052 deaths." greyl Apr 2020 #15

Models always have a low and high estimate. former9thward Apr 2020 #29

Your reply is totally irrelevant. I posted data showing how innacurate your favorite model is. greyl Apr 2020 #55

6171 deaths where? former9thward Apr 2020 #57

What? greenjar_01 Apr 2020 #18

Here are experts explaining why the IHME estimates are crap: Squinch Apr 2020 #26

I don't click DU blue links. former9thward Apr 2020 #30

Lol! Seriously? Squinch Apr 2020 #32

Post your estimate with specific days. former9thward Apr 2020 #36

Wow. You're really invested, aren't you? But the discussion here is the validity Squinch Apr 2020 #37

Why on earth not? Seems highly illogical and self-defeating. . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2020 #43

I asked the poster to post a model he thinks is correct. former9thward Apr 2020 #48

I asked "why not?" after you wrote "I don't click DU blue links." I'm stonkered why you might even Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2020 #49

+1 obamanut2012 Apr 2020 #40

There are already 37,000 deaths. It won't be 25% of the current rate for 3 months Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2020 #10

Very impressive calculations...and I think very likely to happen...the best if we continue to Demsrule86 Apr 2020 #17

Your numbers look right if we don't open up too fast. Blue_true Apr 2020 #22

This. Thank you. Watching the trends, this is just about the same as my calculations. Squinch Apr 2020 #25

My Numbers Are Similar ProfessorGAC Apr 2020 #28

What do you call your calculations? Marthe48 Apr 2020 #41

It's exponential growth with a few suppositions stated Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2020 #42

Thank you for explaining Marthe48 Apr 2020 #60

Typo in first calculations (week 2). Rather than edit, I will repost now Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2020 #44

They are taking real world numbers and applying them Steelrolled Apr 2020 #14

It looks like we will exceed 60,000 within the next three weeks. Blue_true Apr 2020 #19

that's when trump stops counting. spanone Apr 2020 #33

People will stop dying in August, that's the IMHE calculation uponit7771 Apr 2020 #34

I was about to post the same question. shockey80 Apr 2020 #38

With the Republicans going on a death march. shockey80 Apr 2020 #39

Back when that model projected 68,000 deaths, the website said the model assumed ... dawg Apr 2020 #45

It won't help if Trump and his allies attempt shell games to obscure the truth for political reasons Tom Rinaldo Apr 2020 #46

Deaths are being undercounted in large cities elias7 Apr 2020 #47

I wholeheartedly agree with you n/t OhioChick Apr 2020 #51

Fucking with the numbers to keep the count low. Autumn Apr 2020 #58

Chump will view any number of deaths under the original 2 million projection as a victory. Initech Apr 2020 #56