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In reply to the discussion: This Is Why Team Trump and Republicans Are Freaking Out [View all]lindysalsagal
(20,638 posts)91. 538: Biden's steady lead of 6 points highest against incumbent since '44
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/if-trump-is-down-in-the-polls-why-do-so-many-americans-think-hell-win/
If Trump Is Down In The Polls, Why Do So Many Americans Think Hell Win?
If Trump Is Down In The Polls, Why Do So Many Americans Think Hell Win?
sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): FiveThirtyEight alum Harry Enten found that former Vice President Joe Bidens average lead of 6 percentage points over President Trump is the steadiest lead in a race with an incumbent running since at least 1944. In other words, Biden has led, on average, by 6 points since the beginning of 2020, but hes also led by 6 points since the beginning of 2019.
One thing thats stood out to me is Trumps lost points among voters who dont like either candidate running. In 2016, Trump won these voters by a large margin, but here in 2020, theyre breaking overwhelmingly for Biden.
geoffrey.skelley: For me, its hard not to connect Trumps standing in the polls with his approval rating. Its been consistently stuck between roughly 40 and 45 percent in most polls. And, overall, hes at about 45 percent in FiveThirtyEights tracker of registered or likely voter polls, with about 52 percent of voters who disapprove of him (his approval has generally been a little better among voters than adults, and voters will determine his future).
Id argue that this had real repercussions in the 2018 midterms, too. Just look at the exit polls 88 percent of voters who approved of Trump voted for the GOP, but 90 percent of those who disapproved of him voted Democratic. So, if many more people continue to disapprove than approve of Trump, I think itll be challenging for him to win.
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He's actually not though. He's building a coalition and getting out there more.
nolabear
May 2020
#23
Right. Not to mention 270toWin also had Hillary winning over 300 electoral votes in their last
KPN
May 2020
#25
When you win 3 states by 80k total votes, those projections could've easily been true.
oldsoftie
May 2020
#83
Not breaking out the champagne for a while. Was already to celebrate HRC's and BOOM!
Fla Dem
May 2020
#33
If TX & OH go Blue 400 is possible IF we also flip any ONE of these big reaches MO or AK or GA
Celerity
May 2020
#27
if we win 270-268 due to flipping NE-2 and ME-2, expect Trump to go extra special bonkers
Celerity
May 2020
#63
Love to know how much oxygen the blue states are breathing into the red states to keep them alive.
TheFourthMind
May 2020
#10
We need to be ultra vigilant, yes. Only thing, comey's stunt so close to the election
sprinkleeninow
May 2020
#37
No we don't... we need to be enthusiastic and engaged and vote but not down in the dumps gloomy
Demsrule86
May 2020
#47
He's not waiting until November. Already said he's saved lives in this epidemic. 😤
sprinkleeninow
May 2020
#39
Issue with vote by mail: Trump's donor goon is Postmaster Gen + USPS will be privatized by then. n/t
CousinIT
May 2020
#40
As we get closer to the election some polling will show the race tightening and cat grabber will
johnthewoodworker
May 2020
#24
None of this will happen. Trump is a one-term president and that's all there is to it.
John Fante
May 2020
#42
You are wrong. And insisting Trump wins on a Democratic site is not a goo thing to do.
Demsrule86
May 2020
#48
If the reverse were true, Trump would be tweeting the results for all to see.
John Fante
May 2020
#44
I want more voters to understand that it is life-threatening to vote for ANY Republican.
Hermit-The-Prog
May 2020
#28