General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: A 10-point swing to the Democrats post-Dobbs [View all]stratozyck
(2 posts)First: I hope this is accurate and translates to legislative success in both state and federal legislatures. I am very pessimistic about the next 20 years as my internal belief is that the Baby Boomer generation will take the country out with them, as they are the narcissistic generation and all narcissists are willing to take everyone out with them when they die.
My concern is that a generic poll doesn't tell you about location. Did dems gain support in areas that they already had support? This poll doesn't say.
I think in some Purple districts, turnout will go up for the anti abortion side as well. We do not know the spatial distribution of this impact. That is my concern - that enthusiasm amongst the anti abortion people will be in the right geographical locations to mitigate any electoral fallout.
I see it time and time again, Dems point at some poll result that shows their policy is popular, and go, "ah we will win!"
What the GOP will do is push for a national abortion ban at 20 weeks, and a lot of R women who are temporarily mad at the repeal will end up agreeing with that. In 6 months it will be like it never happened in terms of the political alignment.
Again, I really hope I am wrong, but I think for people to get mad about it they have to start seeing local women arrested for miscarriages. Until then, I do think a lot of suburban women will convince themselves that abortions will still be available and thus end up voting R again.