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Showing Original Post only (View all)How to Lie with Rape Statistics: America's Hidden Rape Crisis [View all]
Corey Rayburn Yung
University of Kansas School of Law
March 4, 2014
Abstract:
During the last two decades, many police departments substantially undercounted reported rapes creating "paper" reductions in crime. Media investigations in Baltimore, New Orleans, Philadelphia, and St. Louis found that police eliminated rape complaints from official counts because of cultural hostility to rape complaints and to create the illusion of success in fighting violent crime. The undercounting cities used three difficult-to-detect methods to remove rape complaints from official records: designating a complaint as "unfounded" with little or no investigation; classifying an incident as a lesser offense; and, failing to create a written report that a victim made a rape complaint.
This study addresses how widespread the practice of undercounting rape is in police departments across the country. Because identifying fraudulent and incorrect data is essentially the task of distinguishing highly unusual data patterns, I apply a statistical outlier detection technique to determine which jurisdictions have substantial anomalies in their data. Using this novel method to determine if other municipalities likely failed to report the true number of rape complaints made, I find significant undercounting of rape incidents by police departments across the country. The results indicate that approximately 22% of the 210 studied police departments responsible for populations of at least 100,000 persons have substantial statistical irregularities in their rape data indicating considerable undercounting from 1995 to 2012. Notably, the number of undercounting jurisdictions has increased by over 61% during the eighteen years studied.
Correcting the data to remove police undercounting by imputing data from highly correlated murder rates, the study conservatively estimates that 796,213 to 1,145,309 complaints of forcible vaginal rapes of female victims nationwide disappeared from the official records from 1995 to 2012. Further, the corrected data reveal that the study period includes fifteen to eighteen of the highest rates of rape since tracking of the data began in 1930. Instead of experiencing the widely reported "great decline" in rape, America is in the midst of a hidden rape crisis. Further, the techniques that conceal rape complaints deprioritize those cases so that police conduct little or no investigation. Consequently, police leave serial rapists, who constitute the overwhelming majority of rapists, free to attack more victims. Based upon the findings of this study, governments at all levels must revitalize efforts to combat the cloaked rise in sexual violence and the federal government must exercise greater oversight of the crime reporting process to ensure accuracy of the data provided.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2404424
University of Kansas School of Law
March 4, 2014
Abstract:
During the last two decades, many police departments substantially undercounted reported rapes creating "paper" reductions in crime. Media investigations in Baltimore, New Orleans, Philadelphia, and St. Louis found that police eliminated rape complaints from official counts because of cultural hostility to rape complaints and to create the illusion of success in fighting violent crime. The undercounting cities used three difficult-to-detect methods to remove rape complaints from official records: designating a complaint as "unfounded" with little or no investigation; classifying an incident as a lesser offense; and, failing to create a written report that a victim made a rape complaint.
This study addresses how widespread the practice of undercounting rape is in police departments across the country. Because identifying fraudulent and incorrect data is essentially the task of distinguishing highly unusual data patterns, I apply a statistical outlier detection technique to determine which jurisdictions have substantial anomalies in their data. Using this novel method to determine if other municipalities likely failed to report the true number of rape complaints made, I find significant undercounting of rape incidents by police departments across the country. The results indicate that approximately 22% of the 210 studied police departments responsible for populations of at least 100,000 persons have substantial statistical irregularities in their rape data indicating considerable undercounting from 1995 to 2012. Notably, the number of undercounting jurisdictions has increased by over 61% during the eighteen years studied.
Correcting the data to remove police undercounting by imputing data from highly correlated murder rates, the study conservatively estimates that 796,213 to 1,145,309 complaints of forcible vaginal rapes of female victims nationwide disappeared from the official records from 1995 to 2012. Further, the corrected data reveal that the study period includes fifteen to eighteen of the highest rates of rape since tracking of the data began in 1930. Instead of experiencing the widely reported "great decline" in rape, America is in the midst of a hidden rape crisis. Further, the techniques that conceal rape complaints deprioritize those cases so that police conduct little or no investigation. Consequently, police leave serial rapists, who constitute the overwhelming majority of rapists, free to attack more victims. Based upon the findings of this study, governments at all levels must revitalize efforts to combat the cloaked rise in sexual violence and the federal government must exercise greater oversight of the crime reporting process to ensure accuracy of the data provided.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2404424
As if women didn't already know.
We need regulations in place to force these departments to stop hiding these hate crimes against women.
Sgt. Trent McKinley, the Lawrence Police Department public affairs officer, said that the number of rape crimes reported to the Lawrence Police Department by victims is lower because of the personal nature that is sometimes present between the offender and the victim. McKinley also stated that being intoxicated eliminates, by law, the ability for consent to be made between individuals.
I think when it comes to a stranger that would, say, grab someone off the street and rape them, I think the likelihood of those type of incidents being reported are higher than some of the other types of situations, McKinley said. Whether it be a dating type of thing, potentially even a marriage type of thing.
...
Yung writes in his article that in one of the more extreme cases in Cleveland the dismissal of rape complaints demonstrated the real danger from undercounting when police discovered 11 decomposing bodies in the home of Anthony Sowell, a serial rapist and murderer, after following up on these reports after the third complaint.
The previous complaints even one that said they saw a severed head in the bathroom, and had wounds from their escape from this house didnt trigger an investigation because the police designated the complaints unfounded, Yung said. And so the result was, that when they finally went to his house, they discovered you know a dozen decomposing bodies. And this meant that he continued his crimes after the initial complaint was made, and we dont know how many people may or may not have survived had the police acted sooner.
http://kansan.com/news/2014/03/12/ku-law-professor-researches-hidden-us-rape-crisis/
I think when it comes to a stranger that would, say, grab someone off the street and rape them, I think the likelihood of those type of incidents being reported are higher than some of the other types of situations, McKinley said. Whether it be a dating type of thing, potentially even a marriage type of thing.
...
Yung writes in his article that in one of the more extreme cases in Cleveland the dismissal of rape complaints demonstrated the real danger from undercounting when police discovered 11 decomposing bodies in the home of Anthony Sowell, a serial rapist and murderer, after following up on these reports after the third complaint.
The previous complaints even one that said they saw a severed head in the bathroom, and had wounds from their escape from this house didnt trigger an investigation because the police designated the complaints unfounded, Yung said. And so the result was, that when they finally went to his house, they discovered you know a dozen decomposing bodies. And this meant that he continued his crimes after the initial complaint was made, and we dont know how many people may or may not have survived had the police acted sooner.
http://kansan.com/news/2014/03/12/ku-law-professor-researches-hidden-us-rape-crisis/
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designating a complaint as "unfounded", as a lesser offense; failing to create a written report
seabeyond
Apr 2014
#2
considerable undercounting from 1995 to 2012. conservatively estimates that 796,213 to 1,145,309
seabeyond
Apr 2014
#3
Instead of experiencing the widely reported "great decline" in rape... a hidden rape crisis. nt
seabeyond
Apr 2014
#4
total validation of my argument and confirmation to what i have been saying. thank you redq,
seabeyond
Apr 2014
#5
when i sit with three other women. four of us. ask, how many rapes amongst us. the number at 4
seabeyond
Apr 2014
#7
Are you seriously suggesting relying on anecdotal evidence rather than data?
Donald Ian Rankin
Apr 2014
#33
it told me the FBI numbers were bullshit, while the men and MRA's held up the FBI numbers as
seabeyond
Apr 2014
#34
It "sounds" right, intuitively. But that's assuming there's a strong correlation between rape and
nomorenomore08
Apr 2014
#46
The "propagandists" at the Bureau of Justice Statistics have a slightly different take.
Comrade Grumpy
Apr 2014
#8
“The National Crime Victimization Survey Is Likely Undercounting Rape and Sexual Assault.”
seabeyond
Apr 2014
#11
Until the NISVS has some years of data under it's belt, the NCVS is the only one that can show trend
lumberjack_jeff
Apr 2014
#19
wrong numbers are wrong numbers. simply that. ncvs numbers are wrong. so we have NO numbers.
seabeyond
Apr 2014
#20
you can chat trend, assume and all the rest. i disagree and wont play the game,
seabeyond
Apr 2014
#29
No, that's simply wrong. Wrong numbers can still provide useful information.
Donald Ian Rankin
Apr 2014
#31
i disagree. agenda teaches us otherwise when we find it. as we did in FBI numbers.
seabeyond
Apr 2014
#32
When trying to understand how prevalent rape is... Using wrong numbers is wrong
Ohio Joe
Apr 2014
#39
Are you not reading what I am saying, or just ignoring it? Or do you think there is a mistake in it?
Donald Ian Rankin
Apr 2014
#41
It may well be significantly lower. But I don't see how anyone can argue that it's not unacceptably
nomorenomore08
Apr 2014
#47
conservatively estimates that 796,213 to 1,145,309 complaints of rapes have disappeared
Ohio Joe
Apr 2014
#49
that would be crimes not written down, investigated, taken serious. that would be crimes ignored.
seabeyond
Apr 2014
#50
It's worse then that... Those are only the "forcible vaginal rapes of female victims"
Ohio Joe
Apr 2014
#51
oh... and the victim had to be over 12, and the no alcohol. you know. what is that shit. read
seabeyond
Apr 2014
#53
All seems to be for the purpose of massaging the numbers so they don't look so bad.
nomorenomore08
Apr 2014
#80
There really does seem to be a huge effort from a small group here trying to convince
JTFrog
Apr 2014
#54
"Because evolution" - yes, sex is a natural human (and animal) behavior, so what? What does that
nomorenomore08
Apr 2014
#81
yes. it is nation wide. it is voluntary. it is a horrible way to have a reality check for crimes.
seabeyond
Apr 2014
#12
Yes, it is often intentionally done to cook the books / make the numbers look good.
redqueen
Apr 2014
#14
+1. i could nto agree with you more. and it is du's loss when redq feels the need to step away.
seabeyond
Apr 2014
#17
k and r with deepest thanks, redqueen. but we are constantly told that there is NO war on women.
niyad
Apr 2014
#18
there are just so many factors with rape. it is not the same as other crimes. and does not have
seabeyond
Apr 2014
#52
"The OP asks us to believe a 200 word abstract"... There is a 60 page paper that goes along with it
Ohio Joe
Apr 2014
#64
I will. I did not originally know the actual article was available for everyone.
Bonobo
Apr 2014
#71
She made no attacks whatsoever against you personally. Unless you identify as an MRA
nomorenomore08
Apr 2014
#82
"...refer to anti-rape prevention campaigns as 'haranguing men' or misandrist."
nomorenomore08
Apr 2014
#83
For whatever reason some have a vested interest in convincing people down is up
Major Nikon
Apr 2014
#75
"Men" like that should be offered a free vasectomy at best, quarantined at worst.
nomorenomore08
Apr 2014
#85