Welcome to DU!
The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards.
Join the community:
Create a free account
Support DU (and get rid of ads!):
Become a Star Member
Latest Breaking News
General Discussion
The DU Lounge
All Forums
Issue Forums
Culture Forums
Alliance Forums
Region Forums
Support Forums
Help & Search
General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: How to Lie with Rape Statistics: America's Hidden Rape Crisis [View all]seabeyond
(110,159 posts)11. “The National Crime Victimization Survey Is Likely Undercounting Rape and Sexual Assault.”
Were not talking about small fractionswere talking about the kind of potentially massive underestimate that the military and the Justice Department have warned about for yearsand that could be throwing a wrench into the effort to do the most effective type of rape prevention.
The NCVS statistics show the rate of completed and attempted rape in the United States declining from a high of 5 percent of girls and women victimized annually in 1995 to a low of about 2 percent from 2005 to the present. Sounds good, rightmen behaving better, women protecting themselves more. But here are the flaws that call the nice-sounding stats into doubt: The NCVS is designed to measure all kinds of crime victimization. The questions it poses about sexual violence are embedded among questions that ask about lots of other types of crime. For example:
(Other than any incidents already mentioned,) has anyone attacked or threatened you in any of these ways: a) with any weapon, for instance, a gun or knife, b) with anything like a baseball bat, frying pan, scissors, or stick, c) by something thrown, such a rock or bottle, d) include any grabbing, punching, or choking, e) any rape, attempted rape or other type of sexual attack, f) any face to face threats, OR g) any attack or threat or use of force by anyone at all?
Thats not a good way to prompt women (or men) to report nonconsensual sex, broadly speaking, especially if they havent previously gone to the policeas most rape victims dont. As the new report puts it: This context may inhibit reporting of incidents that the respondent does not think of as criminal, did not report to the police, or does not want to report to police.
(Other than any incidents already mentioned,) has anyone attacked or threatened you in any of these ways: a) with any weapon, for instance, a gun or knife, b) with anything like a baseball bat, frying pan, scissors, or stick, c) by something thrown, such a rock or bottle, d) include any grabbing, punching, or choking, e) any rape, attempted rape or other type of sexual attack, f) any face to face threats, OR g) any attack or threat or use of force by anyone at all?
Thats not a good way to prompt women (or men) to report nonconsensual sex, broadly speaking, especially if they havent previously gone to the policeas most rape victims dont. As the new report puts it: This context may inhibit reporting of incidents that the respondent does not think of as criminal, did not report to the police, or does not want to report to police.
There is, in fact, an existing survey that has many of the attributes the NCVS currently lacks. Its administered by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and its called the National Intimate Partner and Sexual Violence Survey. (NISVS is the acronym. Apologies for the alphabet soup.) NISVS represents the public health perspective, as Tuesdays report puts it, and it asks questions about specific behavior, including whether the survey-taker was unable to consent to sex because he or she had been drinking or taking drugs. NISVS was first conducted in 2010, so it doesnt go back in time the way the NCVS numbers do. But heres the startling direct comparison between the two measures: NISVS counted 1.27 million total sexual acts of forced penetration for women over the past year (including completed, attempted, and alcohol or drug facilitated). NCVS counted only 188,380 for rape and sexual assault. And the FBI, which collects its data from local law enforcement, and so only counts rapes and attempted rapes that have been reported as crimes, totaled only 85,593 for 2010.
http://www.slate.com/articles/double_x/doublex/2013/11/national_crime_victimization_survey_a_new_report_finds_that_the_justice.html
then, once i did the research about the fbi numbers, learning all the ways the crimes is degraded to a lesser crime or simply not reported thru our police, MRA'rs started holding up NCVS to substantiate their argument that rape has significantly declined.
this meant i then had to do the research on NCVS to find the flaws, because of the obvious to us women that are being raped.
so.... with very little time or effort, here is just the start of that research. calling bullshit. and no desire to try to prove out any further. cause bullshit is bullshit, and we all know it. we see.
Edit history
Please sign in to view edit histories.
85 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight:
NoneDon't highlight anything
5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
RecommendedHighlight replies with 5 or more recommendations
designating a complaint as "unfounded", as a lesser offense; failing to create a written report
seabeyond
Apr 2014
#2
considerable undercounting from 1995 to 2012. conservatively estimates that 796,213 to 1,145,309
seabeyond
Apr 2014
#3
Instead of experiencing the widely reported "great decline" in rape... a hidden rape crisis. nt
seabeyond
Apr 2014
#4
total validation of my argument and confirmation to what i have been saying. thank you redq,
seabeyond
Apr 2014
#5
when i sit with three other women. four of us. ask, how many rapes amongst us. the number at 4
seabeyond
Apr 2014
#7
Are you seriously suggesting relying on anecdotal evidence rather than data?
Donald Ian Rankin
Apr 2014
#33
it told me the FBI numbers were bullshit, while the men and MRA's held up the FBI numbers as
seabeyond
Apr 2014
#34
It "sounds" right, intuitively. But that's assuming there's a strong correlation between rape and
nomorenomore08
Apr 2014
#46
The "propagandists" at the Bureau of Justice Statistics have a slightly different take.
Comrade Grumpy
Apr 2014
#8
“The National Crime Victimization Survey Is Likely Undercounting Rape and Sexual Assault.”
seabeyond
Apr 2014
#11
Until the NISVS has some years of data under it's belt, the NCVS is the only one that can show trend
lumberjack_jeff
Apr 2014
#19
wrong numbers are wrong numbers. simply that. ncvs numbers are wrong. so we have NO numbers.
seabeyond
Apr 2014
#20
you can chat trend, assume and all the rest. i disagree and wont play the game,
seabeyond
Apr 2014
#29
No, that's simply wrong. Wrong numbers can still provide useful information.
Donald Ian Rankin
Apr 2014
#31
i disagree. agenda teaches us otherwise when we find it. as we did in FBI numbers.
seabeyond
Apr 2014
#32
When trying to understand how prevalent rape is... Using wrong numbers is wrong
Ohio Joe
Apr 2014
#39
Are you not reading what I am saying, or just ignoring it? Or do you think there is a mistake in it?
Donald Ian Rankin
Apr 2014
#41
It may well be significantly lower. But I don't see how anyone can argue that it's not unacceptably
nomorenomore08
Apr 2014
#47
conservatively estimates that 796,213 to 1,145,309 complaints of rapes have disappeared
Ohio Joe
Apr 2014
#49
that would be crimes not written down, investigated, taken serious. that would be crimes ignored.
seabeyond
Apr 2014
#50
It's worse then that... Those are only the "forcible vaginal rapes of female victims"
Ohio Joe
Apr 2014
#51
oh... and the victim had to be over 12, and the no alcohol. you know. what is that shit. read
seabeyond
Apr 2014
#53
All seems to be for the purpose of massaging the numbers so they don't look so bad.
nomorenomore08
Apr 2014
#80
There really does seem to be a huge effort from a small group here trying to convince
JTFrog
Apr 2014
#54
"Because evolution" - yes, sex is a natural human (and animal) behavior, so what? What does that
nomorenomore08
Apr 2014
#81
yes. it is nation wide. it is voluntary. it is a horrible way to have a reality check for crimes.
seabeyond
Apr 2014
#12
Yes, it is often intentionally done to cook the books / make the numbers look good.
redqueen
Apr 2014
#14
+1. i could nto agree with you more. and it is du's loss when redq feels the need to step away.
seabeyond
Apr 2014
#17
k and r with deepest thanks, redqueen. but we are constantly told that there is NO war on women.
niyad
Apr 2014
#18
there are just so many factors with rape. it is not the same as other crimes. and does not have
seabeyond
Apr 2014
#52
"The OP asks us to believe a 200 word abstract"... There is a 60 page paper that goes along with it
Ohio Joe
Apr 2014
#64
I will. I did not originally know the actual article was available for everyone.
Bonobo
Apr 2014
#71
She made no attacks whatsoever against you personally. Unless you identify as an MRA
nomorenomore08
Apr 2014
#82
"...refer to anti-rape prevention campaigns as 'haranguing men' or misandrist."
nomorenomore08
Apr 2014
#83
For whatever reason some have a vested interest in convincing people down is up
Major Nikon
Apr 2014
#75
"Men" like that should be offered a free vasectomy at best, quarantined at worst.
nomorenomore08
Apr 2014
#85