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True Blue Door

(2,969 posts)
20. Solar, storage, and EVs are mutually-reinforcing sectors.
Sat Dec 20, 2014, 12:38 PM
Dec 2014

And because solar and semiconductors are also mutually reinforcing, the gargantuan semiconductor industry and all of its many tentacles are also driving storage and EVs. This whole thing is one huge beating heart that just gets bigger and louder with each beat.

Fossil fuels are a much more barren ecosystem. They depend on their scarcity and geographic concentration to be valuable. So when producers do something like this, lowering prices temporarily to try to slow down competition, they're also hurting themselves in the process. These prices are nowhere near profit-optimized for them.

The fact that it's also (in fact, mainly) targeted at undermining the fracking industry is also good news for solar.

Plus, those projections for EV sales figures are always with conservative technology assumptions - i.e., basically just projecting trendlines with current technology, as if nobody achieves any progress in the ensuing years. I don't think such conservative assumptions apply in this sector. This is the computer industry in the 1970s. Or even more explosive than that.

This statement in the cited article says it all about its assumptions: "...as befits the electric vehicle with its limited-range." Range issues are far from inherent to EV technology - in fact, they whittle away consistently the more effort is put into expanding range. It won't be a real issue by 2030 or sooner.

Tesla Motors is far ahead of all other EV-makers on range, continually advances its technology, continually pushes down its costs, and has made its patents open-source. In other words, that study is pretty much already obsolete. It was obsolete last year.

Of course. truebluegreen Dec 2014 #1
speaking of seen to be changing: ellenrr Dec 2014 #2
Yes, I saw that. truebluegreen Dec 2014 #4
Depends on how long the lower prices hold probably BootinUp Dec 2014 #3
Kuwait says prices should recover somewhat in 2nd half of 2015 davidn3600 Dec 2014 #5
This is exactly why we need carbon taxes and severe tariffs against polluting countries on point Dec 2014 #6
well, I beieve it is somewhat a moot point, ellenrr Dec 2014 #7
Climate change is now built into the system, but climate catastrophe, that can be prevented. Fred Sanders Dec 2014 #8
I'm not being a pessimist, I'm listening to scientists... ellenrr Dec 2014 #9
OK, we are listening to different scientists, that is fine. Fred Sanders Dec 2014 #10
Are you saying scientists can disagree? dumbcat Dec 2014 #13
gosh - a reasonable person! :) ellenrr Dec 2014 #15
I'd say he's not being pessimistic at all NickB79 Dec 2014 #14
"Current carbon trends". Change the trends, maybe? Fred Sanders Dec 2014 #17
Peak oil and CO2 Jesus Malverde Dec 2014 #11
There is no low price oil can possibly reach that will stop the Solarpocalypse. True Blue Door Dec 2014 #12
Oil and solar compete for entirely different niches and uses NickB79 Dec 2014 #16
Solar, storage, and EVs are mutually-reinforcing sectors. True Blue Door Dec 2014 #20
Improve the battery, improve the solar cell - viola. Who needs oil? Fred Sanders Dec 2014 #18
Yup. Or coal, or gas. True Blue Door Dec 2014 #21
Personally... 99Forever Dec 2014 #19
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