General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Reuters: Democratic support for Hillary drops 15 points since February [View all]DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)Rasmussen was the most accurate pollster in 2008 according to Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos, the gentleman you cited:
The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.
The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on pollster.com.
On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obamas strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obamas final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two Rasmussen and Pew were spot on.
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In 2012 Rasmussen dropped to 14 in pollster accuracy according to the gentleman you cited, ergo;
http://legacy.fordham.edu/campus_resources/enewsroom/topstories_2590.asp
Can we therefore agree that polling from one election cycle is not dispositive of a pollster's efficacy or lack thereof and in the present instance:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html
Ipsos Reid's findings are contradicted by every other pollster in the field?