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Igel

(35,300 posts)
6. Perspective's nice.
Sun Dec 25, 2016, 04:48 PM
Dec 2016

We pitched fits over budget deficits approaching $500 billion. That was above their peak, but they dropped off into the $200-to-300 billion range for a few years. These were unsustainable. That's what everybody said. Including the President.

TARP back in 2008 increased the deficit when it was paid out under Bush and Obama, but this was a kind of artificial increase that distorted the deficit since it was paid back with a bit of interest. It's like loaning a friend $2000 and counting that as expense, and then counting the $2020 paid back as income. It's neither, really. Just when TARP was paid out it seemed to increase the deficit, when it was back it seemed to decrease the deficit. It should be subtracted both from expense and income, since it remained an asset. It's not done because the government's run using cash accounting, but also because it reduces the horrible Bush deficit he incurred after he left office and increases the resulting deficit under Obama. In other words, it makes the bad guy look less bad and the good guy look less good, that that's contrary to current political practice. (Yes, it does mean that to some extent we're dealing with fake news, but it's *our* fake news.)

However, many agree that deficits (up to a point) don't matter:

http://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2016-10-14/obama-administration-budget-deficit-increases-to-587b

Note the key bits: Lew, Obama's Treasury pick, "sustainable level," this deficit still shows " fiscal discipline", " about 3 percent of the size of the economy, a level many economists say is bearable."

$560 billion is okay. $300 billion is unsustainable irresponsibility. We heard this mantra start in February 2009. Now that January 2017 is approaching, it's time to flip the script and say "deficits bad" again. (In interests of full accuracy, there's much to be said for large deficit spending when the economy is in the dumpster, but when we're nearly at full employment, unless new increased deficit spending pulls people back into the work force it probably won't be a good thing.)

What Trump will do Trump will do. But if we start of with no sense perspective, forgetting the last 15 years' history, we're unlikely to suddenly acquire it.

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