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In reply to the discussion: Israel's Netanyahu blasts Iran nuclear deal as paving way for a bomb [View all]Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)Iran is actually a pretty tough nut to crack; They've put up a pretty strong air-defense system. An attempted assault on Iran by Israel would result in a lot of dead Israeli pilots, with no concrete goal attained. it would also literally destroy any remaining international support for Israel, except from Saudi Arabia - even the Us would wash its hands of Israel. even Bush warned Israel that would be a consequence of an Israeli attack on Iran.
Such an attack would indeed be "regionally devastating," not because of the damage Israel would do to Iran (not much) but because of the damage Israel would do to Saudi Arabia. Turkey would not let Israel use its airspace, and would shoot at Israeli warplanes violating it. Iraq and Syria would do the same (and rumor is, the president threatened the US would open fire on Israeli attacks using Iraqi airspace as well. Just rumor AFAIK.) That means Israel would have to take a southern route over Saudi Arabia to get there - and the Saudis are so gung-ho for someone to go to war with Iran that they'd even offer refueling bases for Israeli fighters.
Iran could use this as casus belli against Saudi Arabia and certainly against Israel. But it wouldn't; counter-attacking Israel has the same logistical problems as attacking Iran (easier to just send a phone call to Islamic jihad or Hezbollah anyway.) Iran could handily win a war against Saudi Arabia - which means the Us would intervene against Iran to protect its assets in KSA. No gain for Iran there, then.
No, what Iran would do is take it on the chin, and let the international community ostracize Israel fully. meanwhile it can pull whatever strings it has in Arabia to incite the populace against the Saudi regime - the Saudi people are already angry about the KSA's basing of Americans, and its actions against other Muslims in the region; if the Saudi regime were to let the Israelis use Arabian soil as a launchpad for an attack on Muslims - even the Iranian shia - there would be hell to pay for that regime.
So. net effect of an Israeli attack on Iran? Israel loses every ally but one (which basically gets wrapped up in a violent uprising anyway) Iran suffers no telling damage - even if the Israelis execute it PERFECTLY, they can't do much. Iran is the victim of unwarranted aggression by Israel, against the wishes of every major power in the world, and Israel pays the price.
Israel will not bomb Iran.
Israel is more likely to bomb itself and frame Iran. It's certainly easier, and far more productive to Israel's interests.