Saudi Officials Linked to Jihadist Group in WikiLeaks Cables

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5. Oil

Since the 1970s Saudi Arabia has been one of the top three oil producers in the world. The other two have been the US and either the Former Soviet Union or Russia.

Since the 1970s the US has been a net oil IMPORTER, so US production can NOT set world wide oil prices. Thus world wide oil prices has to be set by the top two oil exporters, Russia or Saudi Arabia, depending on how much the "swing supplier" produces. Russia has refused to restrict its production and the US control over Russia has always been weak, thus that leaves Saudi Arabia.

The US is like most drug addicts, its supplier can do no wrong. One group of people believe the recent drop in the price of oil is an attempt by the House of Saud to get back in control over the oil market. The House of Saud had control till about 2002 when the price of oil started to slowly increase, the House of Saud made several attempts to control the price, but they all failed till oil prices peaked in 2008 as marginal US oil fields (The Fracked Fields) came on line. Speculation was riff at the time, speculation drove prices above what it should have been, and then below where it should have stopped (That is what speculation does, but only for brief time periods of no more then six months and in most cases less then three months).

This group says the House of Saud wants control of the price of oil and thus wants the marginal US oil fields either out of production OR not producing enough to make the US an oil exporter.

I am of another school of thought. That the House of Saud is in a generational change and the grandsons of King Saud I (died 1952, all of the Kings of Arabia since 1952 have been his sons) are fighting it out who will control what. Salafistism/Whabbahism is the religion of the House of Saud, and of ISIS and al Queda and is part of that fight.

The House of Saud needs to know what income it has to spend, and that depends on the price of oil being steady. Thus the increase in the price of oil from 2000 to 2008 was fully acceptable to the House of Saud, but the drop after 2008 was a disaster. Various attempts have been made to control the price of oil, all have failed. They will continue to fail but efforts will be made to control the price of oil for the House of Saud needs the money from the oil to fight its "Enemies" (The term "Enemies" is a broad term, for who the members of the House of Saud wants to defeat are each other but they can that by showing they are better at spreading Salafistism/Whabbahism better then other members of the family, thus the recent wars in the Middle East).

Wars cost money, that was fine as long as the price of oil went up till 2008. When the price of oil went down, all types of expenses had to be cut, including money to keep Yemen's Shittes quiet. Worse, Russia suffered a wheat production problem in 2008 and Putin decided it was better to keep local prices low then to sell wheat at the highest price, forbade exports of grain from Russia. This kept the price of bread in Russia low, but it dramatically increased the price of bread throughout the Middle East (Even Egypt exported wheat due to its high prices, while receiving US grain as a subsidy). This increase in the price of bread was the main reason for the "Arab Summer" that the House of Saud quickly mobilized to suppress. Bread prices have dropped since the Arab Summer, but it made the situation in the Middle East to hot for the House of Saud. After suppressing the Shiite revolts in the Persian Gulf, Saudi Arabia decided the Mother Brotherhood had to go out of Egypt. The Egyptian Military was cooperative but understood one fact, if they did a Coup AND Qaddafi then intervened, the Egyptian enlisted ranks would desert to the Libyans and the Libyans and Egyptians would restore the Moslem Brotherhood. The Libyans would then leave, but make sure the remaining Egyptian Military supports the Moslem Brotherhood.

Thus Qaddafi had to go first and the war to destroy Qaddafi. The support for that war came out of Egypt, but NOT from the Moslem Brotherhood, the support was from the Egyptian Military using Saudi Money. When that was NOT enough, NATO intervene through the push from the US to "Protect the innocent" which of course did not include anyone who supported Qaddafi. Libya is within range of NATO Air bases in Sicily, thus the operation could be done with minimal in flight refueling.

NATO has bases on Cyprus, but it is questionable if those bases could be used to support air attacks on Syria, both British Air Bases are within mortar and Artillery range of Cyprus Greek Government Forces, which means the Cyprus Greeks could deny the use of both fields to NATO. The Greeks have close connections with Iran, Iran supplies them their natural gas and oil (And that is via Turkey, thus Turkey has been careful not to openly support opposition to Assad in Syria, for fears that Iran and Russia will cut off Turkey's oil and natural Gas Supplies).

Notice, it sooner or later comes back to who is supplying whom with oil and Natural Gas. The US supports the House of Saud, for Saudi Arabia has been the "Swing producer" the producer that sets world wide oil prices since the 1970s. Russia is #2 on that list of oil exporters and thus feared.

China is presently an importer of Oil and Coal. China's long term plan is to replace both with Natural Gas from Russia, increase Hydro electrical power AND electricity from Nuke plants (China is also a large producer of Solar energy panels, but that is more aimed at the US and European markets, but will affect even China). China is also trying to grab all of the Natural Gas in the South China Sea.

At present oil is still the #1 source of energy world wide and Saudi Arabia is the #1 exporter of oil. Russia is #2. Thus the US wants to be friends with Saudi Arabia and thus the House of Saud can do not wrong. This is because the other choice, abandon the House of Saud and embrace Russia means also embracing China and right now China is moving to became the #1 Super power with the help of Russia. The US opposes that situation so it stays with the House of Saud.