The factions I perceive within Syria:
1, Current government headed by Assad that are Alawite Shia heading Ba'athist secular government backed by Russians (who have a navy base at Tartus).
2. Rebels that are predominantly Sunni that are ISIS.
3. Rebels that are predominantly Sunni and are not ISIS such as the Free Syrian Army of defectors from Assad.
4. Kurdish nationalists that are primarily Sunni but also Shia and other religions that are the largest minority in Syria.
5. Various Christians, Druzes, other Syrian minorities that may or may not support Assad.
The rebels we are now trying to support are in faction #3 and we are more or less neutral towards factions #4 and #5.
Four years or so ago when the Syrian civil war started we showed acknowledged little separation between factions #2 and #3. Then and now our Sunni Arab allies from the GCC primarily back faction #2.
Turkey does not like the Kurdish nationals faction #4 nor factions #1 nor #2.
Assad and faction #1 probably had enough support to continue in power if there had not been outside influence during the period of the Arab Spring in the region.
France wants to bomb somebody, I assume faction #2.
Who are the refugees?
I assume that the refugees are from faction #5 but are dominated in number by primarily rural Sunnis who have loss their means of livelihood from drought and war. I imagine that there are some actors that think it great that the nations of Western Europe have problems because they accept the refugees.
According to the article we are having problems finding rebels, I assume from faction #3. Syria is a cluster fuck.
What am I missing? Am I correct about the refugees?
Who should we bomb?
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