Poll: (Sanders / Clinton) Neck-And-Neck 2016 Races in Iowa, New Hampshire

[karynnj]

23. Good catch -- not to mention, Sanders may get well over half the O'Malley people in Iowa

I have only seen a NH poll on second choices, but if the same holds true in Iowa, the O'Malley people who are unlikely to get to the 15% threshold in most (or even all) the districts will then go for second choices.

As to the "likely caucus goers" being more in HRC's favor, I would remind people that this is why Obama's results were pretty badly underestimated in 2008. Most of the algorithms for likely caucus goer depend on both past attendance and their stated likelihood of going. This will understate the young people who are motivated by Sanders.

(Because the selection is public, I really want to watch this on CSPAN , if they carry it. (I turned it on in 2004 thinking it would be interesting for a few minutes and watched it for hours. It was fascinating.) This year you wonder if there might be some intimidation to vote for Clinton -- arguing that Sanders is not a Democrat. )