Fukushima Thyroid Cancers Increase Again

[caraher]

3. Now we know the effect of intensive screening

Next year is when we being to find out the real thyroid cancer rate change due to Fukushima. (There's typically at least a 4-year latency.) From a National Geographic interview with Norman Kleiman of the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health:

Is three years after a nuclear accident a reasonable time to test for thyroid cancer?

In Chernobyl, the earliest cases were found about four years after the accident. That's not where the peak was but where they started noticing a small increase, started saying, "Uh-oh, something's going on." Based on Hiroshima and Nagasaki survivors, we would expect this kind of solid [thyroid] tumor to appear somewhere in the four- to six-year range [after an event].

I'm definitely NOT saying there won't be a significant rise. What I am saying is we can't tell yet what kind of increase to expect, and that to date all we're seeing (according to epidemiologists) is the effect of looking at all children.