Poll surge for Farage sparks panic among Tories and Labour

[muriel_volestrangler]

5. Nearly all of UKIP's 2014 vote, plus the hardline Tory Brexiteers, is now for the Brexit Party

2014 results (UK-wide, so includes Northern Ireland, which the current polls don't):
UKIP 27%
Labour 24%
Con 23%
Green 7%
Lib Dem 7%
SNP 2.4%
Plaid 0.7%

UKIP+Con was 50%; now, Brexit+Con+UKIP=34+11+4=49%. Labour is down 3% from 2014, Lib Dems up 5%, Greens up 1%. Not surprising Labour is down a bit, because they're trying to straddle the Brexit fence, while Lib Dems and Greens are firmly Remain.

It was the strong 2014 UKIP vote that scared David Cameron into promising a referendum in the 2015 general election manifesto, because he saw the right wing vote splitting. That worked for that election - he got an absolute majority, and only 1 UKIP MP was elected. They got that back, and more, because very few expect these British MEPs to do much - this is a symbolic election. So strongly anti-EU Tories (including many local councillors) are supporting Farage's Brexit party - the UKIP rump are a bit worse than him (leaning strongly to being an anti-Islam party now; think of Iowa's Steve King, perhaps - even other right wingers are getting uncomfortable about the open hatred now), so most of their voters followed him to Brexit.