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Fla Dem

(23,586 posts)
12. My musings on the Supreme Court
Thu Jun 2, 2016, 03:36 PM
Jun 2016

It doesn't look Turtle McConnell is going to allow a vote on President Obama's candidate Judge Garland. If he continues to obstruct, that's at least one spot the new pres (HRC) will get to appoint. Then based on age, I would guess there could be 2 more in the 1st term; RBG will be 87 at the end of the 1st term, Anthony Kennedy will be 83. But who know. RBG may stay until she's 90, and given the sudden death of Scalia, someone may go unexpectedly. The good thing is if HRC is the president, there is no way the senate can block her nominee to fill Scalia's spot. We still end up with a 5-4 center-left Supreme Court. (Merrick Garland is 63)

As much as I admire RBG I hope she retires before the end of the first term. Kennedy and/or Breyer retires. Then we have the possibility of at least 4-5 Justices that will be in their late 50's early 60's.

Sonia Sotomayor........61
Elena Kagan..............56
Pres Obama's or HRC's nominee to replace Scalia
Replacement for RBG sometime during the first term
Replacement for the retirement of Anthony Kennedy or Stephen Breyer

Hopefully all of the replacement candidates will be in their late 50's to early 60's.

We could have at least 5 relatively young center/left Supreme Court Justices.

If they stay in good health, they could dominate the SC for the next 20 years. Of course I am supposing all this with the expectation that HRC will be the next President.

The last 9 justices retired or died between the ages of 70-90.

Antonin Scalia............died at 80
Sandra Day O'Connor retired at 75
David Souter............retired at 70
John Paul Stevens.....retired at 90
William Rehnquist.........died at 81
Lewis Powell............. retired at 80
Harry Blackmun.........retired at 86
Warren Burger..........retired at 79
Thurgood Marshall.....retired at 83

Only 2 justices stayed beyond 85,

Age of current SC Justices

Anthony Kennedy........79......Ronald Reagan
Clarence Thomas........67......George H. W. Bush
Ruth Bader Ginsburg... 83.......Bill Clinton
Stephen Breyer...........77.......Bill Clinton
John G. Roberts..........61.......George W. Bush
Samuel A. Alito, Jr......66.......George W. Bush
Sonia Sotomayor........61.......Barack Obama
Elena Kagan..............56........Barack Obama

Obama's nominee might be confirmed after election day 2016. MADem Jun 2016 #1
You've got a point there ... but I'd read, or heard, elsewhere that ... NurseJackie Jun 2016 #5
Merrick Garland, a Scorpio, will not withdraw his nomination. He's a fighter. President Obama is a BlueCaliDem Jun 2016 #7
Good point pandr32 Jun 2016 #10
Many excellent points, pandr! Thanks for highlighting them. BlueCaliDem Jun 2016 #11
And therein lies the perfect storm of a Master Threat! MADem Jun 2016 #8
3 seats for sure. I love your take on Thomas but could the country get that lucky??? Walk away Jun 2016 #2
Twenty years ago, it would have been great to put him on the court jmowreader Jun 2016 #14
Two of my college age nieces are lesbians, awesome and involved in politics. Walk away Jun 2016 #16
If I had to pick one, it would be McShane jmowreader Jun 2016 #17
How cool is it that a gay Justice struck down a law against same-sex marriage! Walk away Jun 2016 #18
I think she'll nominate three, barring unforeseen health problems by any current members. George II Jun 2016 #3
3 beachbum bob Jun 2016 #4
The average is 2, I think 3. The House has the sole authority to impeach. Agnosticsherbet Jun 2016 #6
4 maybe? Even 5? Thomas is not going to be impeached. n/t Lil Missy Jun 2016 #9
My musings on the Supreme Court Fla Dem Jun 2016 #12
Thanks for the detailed info ... that was interesting. NurseJackie Jun 2016 #13
Dammit, I thought Thomas was pushing mid-70's Tarc Jun 2016 #15
That was interesting.. thank you, Fla Dem! Cha Jun 2016 #20
Six n/t fleabiscuit Jun 2016 #19
I dunno.. but it was Cha Jun 2016 #21
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