Interest in chart on Odds of 2016 Democratic Nomination

[Jim Lane]

4. I'm not clear on their methodology but their probabilities sum to more than 100%.

It's not just rounding, either, because if you look at the full chart with all the very long shots, the probabilities total 135%.

I also note that their numbers can change very rapidly. There was an update at 11:34 a.m., about an hour and a half after your post, with Clinton and Sanders each going up a bit.

My own chart (my methodology being to pull numbers out of my ass) would have Sanders and O'Malley higher, Biden and Warren lower. The toughest one to set a number on is Clinton. Certainly she's the heavy favorite at this point, but the Convention is so far in the future that 77% strikes me as too high. OTOH, I think at least one DUer has made Clinton something like 95%.

A final note: Lincoln Chafee doesn't even make their chart. I give him a better chance than some of the people who are at 1% on the chart, like John Hickenlooper and Rahm Emanuel.