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In reply to the discussion: STOCK MARKET WATCH -- Tuesday, 23 June 2015 [View all]Demeter
(85,373 posts)5. A Pink Slip for the Progress Fairy OCTOBER--RETURN TO THE FUTURE
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2014/10/a-pink-slip-for-progress-fairy.html
If youve ever wondered just how powerfully 'collective thinking' grips most members of our speciesincluding, by and large, those who most forcefully insist on the originality of their thinkingI have an experiment to recommend: go out in public and advocate an idea about the future that isnt part of the conventional wisdom, and see what kind of reaction you field. If your experience is anything like mine, youll get some anger, some argument, and some blank stares, but the most telling reaction will come from people who try to force what youre saying into the Procrustean bed of the conventional wisdom, no matter how thoroughly they have to stretch and chop what youve said to make it fit.
Now of course the project of this blog is guaranteed to field such reactions, since the ideas explored here dont just ignore the conventional wisdom, they fling it to the floor and dance on the crumpled remains. When I mention that I expect the decline and fall of industrial civilization to take centuries, accordingly, people take this to mean that I expect a smooth, untroubled descent. When I mention that I expect crisis before this decade is finished, in turn, people take this to mean that I expect industrial civilization to crash into ruin in the next few years. Some people, for that matter, slam back and forth from one of these presuppositions to another, as though they cant fit the concepts of prolonged decline and imminent crisis into their heads at the same moment. That sort of response has become more common than usual in recent months, and part of the reason may be that its been a while since Ive sketched out the overall shape of the future as I see it. Some of my readers may have lost track of the broader picture, and more recent readers of this blog may not have encountered that picture at all. For that reason among others, Im going to spend this weeks post summarizing the the decline and fall of industrial civilization.
Yes, Im aware that many people believe that such a thing cant happen: that science, technology, or some other factor has made progress irreversible. Im also aware that many people insist that progress may not be irreversible yet but will be if we all just do that little bit more. These arewell, lets be charitable and call them faith-based claims. Generalizing from a sample size of one when the experiment hasnt yet run its course is poor scientific procedure; insisting that just this once, the law of diminishing returns will be suspended for our benefit is the antithesis of science. It amounts to treating progress as some sort of beneficent fairy who can be counted on to tap us with her magic wand and give us a wonderful future, just because we happen to want one.
The overfamiliar cry of but its different this time! is popular, its comforting, but its also irrelevant. Of course its different this time; it was different every other time, too. Neolithic civilizations limited to one river valley and continental empires with complex technologies have all declined and fallen in much the same way and for much the same reasons. It may appeal to our sense of entitlement to see ourselves as destinys darlings, to insist that the Progress Fairy has promised us a glorious future out there among the stars, or even to claim that its humanitys mission to populate the galaxy, but these are another set of faith-based claims; its a little startling, in fact, to watch so many people who claim to have outgrown theology clinging to such overtly religious concepts as humanitys mission and destiny.
In the real world, when civilizations exhaust their resource bases and wreck the ecological cycles that support them, they fall. It takes between one and three centuries on average for the fall to happenand no, big complex civilizations dont fall noticeably faster or slower than smaller and simpler ones. Nor is it a linear declinethe end of a civilization is a fractal process composed of crises on many different scales of space and time, with equally uneven consequences. An effective response can win a breathing space; in the wake of a less effective one, part of what used to be normal goes away for good. Sooner or later, one crisis too many overwhelms the last defenses, and the civilization falls, leaving scattered remnants of itself that struggle and gleam for a while until the long night closes in. The historian Arnold Toynbee, whose study of the rise and fall of civilizations is the most detailed and cogent for our purpose, has traced a recurring rhythm in this process. Falling civilizations oscillate between periods of intense crisis and periods of relative calm, each such period lasting anywhere from a few decades to a century or morethe pace is set by the speed of the underlying decline, which varies somewhat from case to case. Most civilizations, he found, go through three and a half cycles of crisis and stabilizationthe half being, of course, the final crisis from which there is no recovery.
Thats basically the model that Im applying to our future. One wrinkle many people miss is that were not waiting for the first of the three and a half rounds of crisis and recovery to hit; were waiting for the second. The first began in 1914 and ended around 1954, driven by the downfall of the British Empire and the collapse of European domination of the globe. During the forty years between Sarajevo and Dien Bien Phu, the industrial world was hammered by the First World War, the Spanish Flu pandemic, the Great Depression, millions of political murders by the Nazi and Soviet governments, the Second World War, and the overthrow of European colonial empires around the planet. That was the first era of crisis in the decline and fall of industrial civilization. The period from 1945 to the present was the first interval of stability and recovery, made more prosperous and expansive than most examples of the species by the breakneck exploitation of petroleum and other fossil fuels, and a corresponding boom in technology. At this point, as fossil fuel reserves deplete, the planets capacity to absorb carbon dioxide and other pollutants runs up against hard limits, and a galaxy of other measures of impending crisis move toward the red line, its likely that the next round of crisis is not far off. What will actually trigger that next round, though, is anyones guess. In the years leading up to 1914, plenty of people sensed that an explosion was coming, some guessed that a general European war would set it off, but nobody knew that the trigger would be the assassination of an Austrian archduke on the streets of Sarajevo. The Russian Revolution, the March on Rome, the crash of 29, Stalin, Hitler, Pearl Harbor, Auschwitz, Hiroshima? No one saw those coming, and only a few people even guessed that something resembling one or another of these things might be in the offing.
Thus trying to foresee the future of industrial society in detail is an impossible task. Sketching out the sort of future that we could get is considerably less challenging. History has plenty to say about the things that happen when a civilization begins its long descent into chaos and barbarism, and its not too difficult to generalize from that evidence. I dont claim that the events outlined below are what will happen, but I expect things like them to happen; further than that, the lessons of history will not go.
With those cautions, heres a narrative sketch of the kind of future that waits for us.
YOU'LL HAVE TO GO TO THE LINK...IF YOU DARE!
If youve ever wondered just how powerfully 'collective thinking' grips most members of our speciesincluding, by and large, those who most forcefully insist on the originality of their thinkingI have an experiment to recommend: go out in public and advocate an idea about the future that isnt part of the conventional wisdom, and see what kind of reaction you field. If your experience is anything like mine, youll get some anger, some argument, and some blank stares, but the most telling reaction will come from people who try to force what youre saying into the Procrustean bed of the conventional wisdom, no matter how thoroughly they have to stretch and chop what youve said to make it fit.
Now of course the project of this blog is guaranteed to field such reactions, since the ideas explored here dont just ignore the conventional wisdom, they fling it to the floor and dance on the crumpled remains. When I mention that I expect the decline and fall of industrial civilization to take centuries, accordingly, people take this to mean that I expect a smooth, untroubled descent. When I mention that I expect crisis before this decade is finished, in turn, people take this to mean that I expect industrial civilization to crash into ruin in the next few years. Some people, for that matter, slam back and forth from one of these presuppositions to another, as though they cant fit the concepts of prolonged decline and imminent crisis into their heads at the same moment. That sort of response has become more common than usual in recent months, and part of the reason may be that its been a while since Ive sketched out the overall shape of the future as I see it. Some of my readers may have lost track of the broader picture, and more recent readers of this blog may not have encountered that picture at all. For that reason among others, Im going to spend this weeks post summarizing the the decline and fall of industrial civilization.
Yes, Im aware that many people believe that such a thing cant happen: that science, technology, or some other factor has made progress irreversible. Im also aware that many people insist that progress may not be irreversible yet but will be if we all just do that little bit more. These arewell, lets be charitable and call them faith-based claims. Generalizing from a sample size of one when the experiment hasnt yet run its course is poor scientific procedure; insisting that just this once, the law of diminishing returns will be suspended for our benefit is the antithesis of science. It amounts to treating progress as some sort of beneficent fairy who can be counted on to tap us with her magic wand and give us a wonderful future, just because we happen to want one.
The overfamiliar cry of but its different this time! is popular, its comforting, but its also irrelevant. Of course its different this time; it was different every other time, too. Neolithic civilizations limited to one river valley and continental empires with complex technologies have all declined and fallen in much the same way and for much the same reasons. It may appeal to our sense of entitlement to see ourselves as destinys darlings, to insist that the Progress Fairy has promised us a glorious future out there among the stars, or even to claim that its humanitys mission to populate the galaxy, but these are another set of faith-based claims; its a little startling, in fact, to watch so many people who claim to have outgrown theology clinging to such overtly religious concepts as humanitys mission and destiny.
In the real world, when civilizations exhaust their resource bases and wreck the ecological cycles that support them, they fall. It takes between one and three centuries on average for the fall to happenand no, big complex civilizations dont fall noticeably faster or slower than smaller and simpler ones. Nor is it a linear declinethe end of a civilization is a fractal process composed of crises on many different scales of space and time, with equally uneven consequences. An effective response can win a breathing space; in the wake of a less effective one, part of what used to be normal goes away for good. Sooner or later, one crisis too many overwhelms the last defenses, and the civilization falls, leaving scattered remnants of itself that struggle and gleam for a while until the long night closes in. The historian Arnold Toynbee, whose study of the rise and fall of civilizations is the most detailed and cogent for our purpose, has traced a recurring rhythm in this process. Falling civilizations oscillate between periods of intense crisis and periods of relative calm, each such period lasting anywhere from a few decades to a century or morethe pace is set by the speed of the underlying decline, which varies somewhat from case to case. Most civilizations, he found, go through three and a half cycles of crisis and stabilizationthe half being, of course, the final crisis from which there is no recovery.
Thats basically the model that Im applying to our future. One wrinkle many people miss is that were not waiting for the first of the three and a half rounds of crisis and recovery to hit; were waiting for the second. The first began in 1914 and ended around 1954, driven by the downfall of the British Empire and the collapse of European domination of the globe. During the forty years between Sarajevo and Dien Bien Phu, the industrial world was hammered by the First World War, the Spanish Flu pandemic, the Great Depression, millions of political murders by the Nazi and Soviet governments, the Second World War, and the overthrow of European colonial empires around the planet. That was the first era of crisis in the decline and fall of industrial civilization. The period from 1945 to the present was the first interval of stability and recovery, made more prosperous and expansive than most examples of the species by the breakneck exploitation of petroleum and other fossil fuels, and a corresponding boom in technology. At this point, as fossil fuel reserves deplete, the planets capacity to absorb carbon dioxide and other pollutants runs up against hard limits, and a galaxy of other measures of impending crisis move toward the red line, its likely that the next round of crisis is not far off. What will actually trigger that next round, though, is anyones guess. In the years leading up to 1914, plenty of people sensed that an explosion was coming, some guessed that a general European war would set it off, but nobody knew that the trigger would be the assassination of an Austrian archduke on the streets of Sarajevo. The Russian Revolution, the March on Rome, the crash of 29, Stalin, Hitler, Pearl Harbor, Auschwitz, Hiroshima? No one saw those coming, and only a few people even guessed that something resembling one or another of these things might be in the offing.
Thus trying to foresee the future of industrial society in detail is an impossible task. Sketching out the sort of future that we could get is considerably less challenging. History has plenty to say about the things that happen when a civilization begins its long descent into chaos and barbarism, and its not too difficult to generalize from that evidence. I dont claim that the events outlined below are what will happen, but I expect things like them to happen; further than that, the lessons of history will not go.
With those cautions, heres a narrative sketch of the kind of future that waits for us.
YOU'LL HAVE TO GO TO THE LINK...IF YOU DARE!
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Don't forget the wicked thunderstorms. They reported a tornado near Birch Run.
tclambert
Jun 2015
#4