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Response to Rhiannon12866 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2022, 05:00 AM

6. Labor force participation rate: overall down from 2019, but for prime age, up slightly

# LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

# LFPR Prime age (25-54) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060

In June of the following years, in percent of the civilian non-institutionalized population age 16+:
2019 2020 2021 2022
62.9 61.4   61.6 62.2 LFPR
82.2 81.5   81.7 82.3 Prime age LFPR

They are somewhat noisy ziggy zaggy data series, but anyway. Some other deep dives I've been looking at is that LFPR is somewhat down for older folks (not surprising -- continuing boomer retirements, the youngest boomers are age 58, the oldest 76; but somewhat dismayingly for the "young old" as well, e.g. 55-65. As for younger than those, from what I've seen, we're at pre-pandemic levels of LFPR)

On one of the other points on the clip, the first quarter GDP drop of 1.6% (annualized) was also featured, and we get the first estimate of Q2 GDP on Thursday. Two quarters of negative GDP is a common "definition" of a recession, and the only one at least til the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) weighs in, which often takes a year or more, and is very unlikely before the midterms.

They are the official arbiters of calling recessions. I've heard them called "semi-official", but I don't know any entity that is considered more "official" in this regards, at least in terms of credibility and given that they have had that defacto role for many decades.

The 2nd estimate of Q2 GDP comes out in late August, the 3rd in late September. So if we don't like the first estimate, there is still hope.

5 full days in a row of stock market ahead.

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