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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Jul 29, 2022, 07:17 AM

1. Today: Pers income, consumer spending, PCE inflation; Employment Cost Index; Consumer sentiment

Eeps. in 15 minutes, except for the Cons sentiment at 10a

Will be interesting since everything the NBER will be looking at to call recession or not is getting a lot of scrutiny.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100216978442#post8
the two measures we (NBER) have put the most weight on are real personal income less transfers and nonfarm payroll employment.
https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating

REAL PERSONAL INCOME: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPI -- been declining since March 2021. Dec'21: 17.791 T$, May'22: 17.700 T$

Real personal income excluding current transfer receipts (W875RX1) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/W875RX1
Jan 1: 14441.0, Feb 1: 14484.3, Mar 1: 14442.9, Apr 1: 14487.7, May 1: 14501.8
May 1: +0.4% increase since Jan 1, so not terribly robust, but it is positive.

Of course, the nonfarm payroll employment has been great:

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

But the Household Survey's Employed has been anemic of late:
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000
Monthly changes: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth

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mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2022 OP
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progree Jul 2022 #1
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