Reason for and a critical question about 2012's 6.9% decline in nuclear production

[PamW]

43. You don't understand sample sizes???

kristopher,

Do you not understand the role sample sizes play when attempting to derive conclusions based on statistics?

Do you not realize that when you have a large sample that one can validly draw statistical conclusions based on sampling a large number of case?

However, do you not realize that when you sample only 2 case; that one can't draw meaningful conclusions?

Gee - I thought the case with the Obama / Romney poll in my previous post was easy enough for you to understand.

Suppose you are taking a poll prior to the November 2012 election, and you only sample 2 people.

As we know, the public was almost evenly divided between Obama and Romney; with Obama a few points ahead, which is why he is still President.

So if you pick a person at random; it's just about half and half that you get an Obama or Romney supporter.

So it's about half that you will randomly choose a Romney supporter for your first sample, and another half that the second will also support Romney.

So the combined probability is almost 25% that you will randomly choose 2 Romney supporters to poll.

So both your samples will say they are voting for Romney. What can you conclude from that?

The answer is NOT a DAMN THING. The sample size is TOO SMALL to discern the few percentage points separating Obama and Romney.

You don't know when the data you have is WORTHLESS?

As for that PALTRY reference discussion; that didn't "shred" anything.

It's just a bunch of UNSUBSTANTIATED crap from Shrader-Frechette in which she claims scientists are making up data.

Does she substantiate that? NO WAY - in fact she references HERSELF a lot. What type of "scholar" uses themselves the substantiate themselves.

That makes for a bit circular argument.

Of course, she's not really a scholar. How can one be an expert in "ethics" if someone LIES all the time?

Don't cite Shrader-Frechette as "proof" of anything to me; I know FRAUDS when I see them.

PamW