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jimmy the one

(2,714 posts)
17. BJS & gallup
Mon Nov 24, 2014, 01:20 PM
Nov 2014

ezra: gun ownership has been steady since the mid-1990s, while murders decreased 50%.

You're compressing; household & personal gun ownership rates dropped from 1993 to 2000, even accd'g to your gallup link, & FA violent crime & murder rates also dropped.
The sharpest decline in HH gun ownership rates was from ~1993 to 2000 - gallup has it dropping from ~50% to 34% (99) & 42% (2000). Note how violent crime rates (& totals) dropped the most during that very time period of 8 years, then fluctuated slightly from 2000 - 2008 as HHGO rates leveled off. The two charts (gallup HHGO & FA violent crime rates) show a correlation (murder rates in next post).

From a firearm related violent crime rate high of 9.2% & 9.3% in 1993 & 94 - as HH gun ownership rates declined - the FA related violent crime rate also declined steadily to 1999, then fell to a low of 6.2% & 6.0% in 2003 & 2008. That's from a 25% to 33% decline. From 2008 to now evidently FA related violent crime rate rose back up, post Obama or Heller, I pick heller.

Bur justice stats, may 2013 (NFFAV = non fatal firearm violence);
.. total FA VC.. FA hom ..non fatals .. NF incidents..NFFAV ..All viol w FA's
1993 1,548,000 18,253 1,529,700 1,222,700 7.3 9.2%
1994 1,585,700 17,527 1,568,200 1,287,200 7.4 9.3
1995 1,208,800 15,551 1,193,200 1,028,900 5.5 7.9
1996 1,114,800 14,037 1,100,800 939,500 5.1 7.9
1997 1,037,300 13,252 1,024,100 882,900 4.7 7.7
...1998 847,200 11,798 835,400 673,300 3.8 7.0
...1999 651,700 10,828 640,900 523,600 2.9 6.1
...2000 621,000 10,801 610,200 483,700 2.7 7.3
...2001 574,500 11,348 563,100 507,000 2.5 7.7
...2002 551,800 11,829 540,000 450,800 2.3 7.4
...2003 479,300 11,920 467,300 385,000 2.0 6.2
...2004 468,100 11,624 456,500 405,800 1.9 6.9
...2005 515,900 12,352 503,500 446,400 2.1 7.4
...2006 627,200 12,791 614,400 552,000 2.5 7.4
...2007 567,400 12,632 554,800 448,400 2.2 8.3
...2008 383,500 12,179 371,300 331,600 1.5 6.0
...2009 421,600 11,493 410,100 383,400 1.6 7.4
...2010 426,100 11,078 415,000 378,800 1.6 8.6
..2011d 478,400 11,101 467,300 414,600 1.8 8.2
http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fv9311.pdf

Highlighting the last two columns. Note the dramatic drop of nearly one million crimes in FA violent crime totals from 1993 to 2000 (1.55 million to 0.62 million), while as HHGO rates leveled off 2000 - 2011 there was a much less drop of 0.2 million. Note the dramatic drop in total murder from 1993 to 2000 (above chart), from 18,000 to 11,000:
*(category in table below): Rate of nonfatal firearm victimization
..Fatal & Non Fatal FA Viol ... *above .... rate of violence w firearms
1993 1,548,000 ................ 7.3 ....................9.2%
1994 1,585,700 ................ 7.4 ......................9.3
1995 1,208,800 ................ 5.5 ......................7.9
1996 1,114,800 ................ 5.1 ......................7.9
1997 1,037,300 ................ 4.7 .......................7.7
...1998 847,200 ............... 3.8 .......................7.0
...1999 651,700 ............... 2.9 .......................6.1
...2000 621,000 ............... 2.7 .......................7.3
...2001 574,500 ............... 2.5 .......................7.7
...2002 551,800 ............... 2.3 ........................7.4
...2003 479,300 ............... 2.0 ........................6.2
...2004 468,100 ............... 1.9 ........................6.9
...2005 515,900 .............. 2.1 .........................7.4
...2006 627,200 .............. 2.5 .........................7.4
...2007 567,400 .............. 2.2 .........................8.3
...2008 383,500 .............. 1.5 .........................6.0
...2009 421,600 .............. 1.6......................... 7.4
...2010 426,100 .............. 1.6 .........................8.6
..2011d 478,400 .............. 1.8 ........................8.2

It's not just homicides; all crimes are down. Jackpine Radical Nov 2014 #1
Good point about total crime being down! benEzra Nov 2014 #2
a real contributing reason for drop in crime jimmy the one Nov 2014 #3
Your post shows that gun ownership has kioa Nov 2014 #5
repeat jimmy the one Nov 2014 #7
No, gun ownership has been steady since the mid-1990s, while murders decreased 50%. benEzra Nov 2014 #9
BJS & gallup jimmy the one Nov 2014 #17
bjs murder rates stats jimmy the one Nov 2014 #18
Guns per capita vs murder rate. kioa Nov 2014 #19
california apples, florida oranges jimmy the one Nov 2014 #20
Hardly. Both my & your examples show zero correlation between guns per capita & murder rates. kioa Nov 2014 #21
This message was self-deleted by its author friendly_iconoclast Nov 2014 #22
We weren't supposed to notice that TX has more guns per capita and less murder than CA friendly_iconoclast Nov 2014 #23
buy a new deck of cards jimmy the one Nov 2014 #24
You are now contradicting what you've been claiming in the other thread friendly_iconoclast Nov 2014 #25
"I have a sneaking suspicion you're not playing with a full deck of cards. " blueridge3210 Nov 2014 #26
et tu jimmy the one Dec 2014 #27
Um, yeah. blueridge3210 Dec 2014 #28
Oh, really? Did a bunch of guns just disappear? Did they magically vaporize? NYC_SKP Nov 2014 #12
'Tragic canoeing accidents'. AtheistCrusader Nov 2014 #16
How odd, crime is down while firearms sales reached all time highs Lurks Often Nov 2014 #4
such dishonesty jimmy the one Nov 2014 #6
"You are well aware of what I've just posted"-and it's just as true now than it was then friendly_iconoclast Nov 2014 #8
I am struck by decline in handgun homicides. Eleanors38 Nov 2014 #10
50,000 stolen guns a year are more than enough to supply all the criminals with guns..... Logical Nov 2014 #11
a claim of 50,000/year melm00se Nov 2014 #13
What? That is only guns stolen from FFL holders. Not home burglarys, etc. Not sure..... Logical Nov 2014 #14
Here you go, I was wrong, it was 190,000 in 2012....... Logical Nov 2014 #15
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