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2016 Postmortem

vdogg

(1,384 posts)

10. This reminds me of Ohio in 2012

Reply to Godhumor (Original post)

Wed Mar 9, 2016, 12:00 AM

Mar 2016

They called it for Obama when he was down 5. Cuyahoga came in big for Obama but really late and all at once. Polls suddenly flipped. We might see something similar tonight.

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It breaks my heart as a statistical analyst to do this, but the polling. The polling done be [View all] Godhumor Mar 2016 OP

They must not be accounting for independents vdogg Mar 2016 #1

Independents can still vote in closed primary states TM99 Mar 2016 #8

Registered Democrats Are Going for Clinton by about 16% or So Stallion Mar 2016 #2

Chuck Toad just said there could be 300K more votes to count....?????? MADem Mar 2016 #3

No way. vdogg Mar 2016 #6

He said he really didn't know, and they didn't know where all the outstanding MADem Mar 2016 #13

Does anyone have a list of which of the remaining states are actually closed primary states? vdogg Mar 2016 #4

Land lines Warren DeMontague Mar 2016 #5

Trying to figure out a decent likely voter screen in a "change" election is a guessing game. n/t winter is coming Mar 2016 #7

you have been as even-handed as one could expect ibegurpard Mar 2016 #9

+1 I agree! tex-wyo-dem Mar 2016 #33

This reminds me of Ohio in 2012 vdogg Mar 2016 #10

Wayne county (Detroit) is where Clinton is doing best jeff47 Mar 2016 #21

Yup ismnotwasm Mar 2016 #11

YUUUGE gain for Sanders. Hiraeth Mar 2016 #32

That is why you do *NOT* take polling for granted. Uglystick Mar 2016 #12

Aren't you a peach n/t Godhumor Mar 2016 #19

a fresh one too Kalidurga Mar 2016 #27

Thank you for your honesty. reformist2 Mar 2016 #14

At the start of the primary I said the polling was heading into uncharted territory. madfloridian Mar 2016 #15

Check out FiveThirtyEight's crash and burn: DirkGently Mar 2016 #16

The polls are biased and will have to adjust their sampling assumptions or wilsonbooks Mar 2016 #17

I really appreciate you admitting this. TM99 Mar 2016 #18

So many polls in the world have been way off. Lucky Luciano Mar 2016 #20

Voters this year are not superkona Mar 2016 #22

Well, that's all she wrote vdogg Mar 2016 #23

I would really love to know who "other" is vdogg Mar 2016 #24

Something to watch for vdogg Mar 2016 #25

Kos had an even worse night than Hillary BeyondGeography Mar 2016 #26

His mailbox must be hopping right now n/t Godhumor Mar 2016 #28

Well earned BeyondGeography Mar 2016 #31

Welcome to the 21st century. longship Mar 2016 #29

gigo Hiraeth Mar 2016 #30

KnR good read. nt retrowire Mar 2016 #34

Basic problem: primary polling doesn't work. JackRiddler Mar 2016 #35

I posted in another thread that the pollsters applegrove Mar 2016 #36

k & r avaistheone1 Mar 2016 #37