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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: It breaks my heart as a statistical analyst to do this, but the polling. The polling done be [View all]Lucky Luciano
(11,248 posts)20. So many polls in the world have been way off.
I am much more of a math guy than a stats guy (I know you know the distinction!) - the art/science of polling has definitely changed. From the Greek referendums/elections to Jeremy Corbyn, the massive win for Trudeau, etc, the polls have been off the mark.
I wonder if the closed primaries are also esier to predict because the ages will probably skew older for people registered in a party - thereby making the under 40 crowd less relevant and older polling methods more valid. Who knows.
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It breaks my heart as a statistical analyst to do this, but the polling. The polling done be [View all]
Godhumor
Mar 2016
OP
Does anyone have a list of which of the remaining states are actually closed primary states?
vdogg
Mar 2016
#4
Trying to figure out a decent likely voter screen in a "change" election is a guessing game. n/t
winter is coming
Mar 2016
#7
At the start of the primary I said the polling was heading into uncharted territory.
madfloridian
Mar 2016
#15