2016 Postmortem

JoePhilly

(27,787 posts)

7. Theory of Reasoned Action ... look into it.

Thu Mar 17, 2016, 07:18 PM

Mar 2016

Social scientists learned long ago that asking people about their attitudes about "abstract concepts" (like favorability) have almost no correlation with associated behaviors (like voting).

If you want to predict how people will vote ... and you want to ask them a question that will be a good predictor, you MUST ask them a question about their attitude towards PERFORMING the behavior in question.

This is not dressage ... a competition in which a rider on a Horse competes alone and judges decide what color ribbon to give them.

This is a head to head competition. And Hillary will beat any Republican head to head.

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Hillary Clinton Favorable Rating [View all] marew Mar 2016 OP

And still she prevails. Go figure. :-P NurseJackie Mar 2016 #1

When you have the DNC tipping the scales for you, and... tex-wyo-dem Mar 2016 #6

^^^this^^^ JudyM Mar 2016 #9

This is true! nt marew Mar 2016 #21

Really? peggysue2 Mar 2016 #22

If Hillary is the Democratic candidate- marew Mar 2016 #37

You pretty much summed it up Tex InAbLuEsTaTe Mar 2016 #28

I agree, many voters have no idea how much she lies and supports wall street. nt Logical Mar 2016 #17

This is true! nt marew Mar 2016 #38

I know, I know. marew Mar 2016 #23

Wall Street would prefer a Clinton loss to a Sanders win. arcane1 Mar 2016 #2

Yup-- Art_from_Ark Mar 2016 #12

they prefer that the next President is too weak approval-wise to take them on GreatGazoo Mar 2016 #25

Elections aren't held in a vacuum, ergo DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #3

She'd better hope this one doesn't become relevant jfern Mar 2016 #4

and how does John Kasich get the nom over Cruz as well as Trump? nt geek tragedy Mar 2016 #8

Establishment pulling strings for him at a brokered convention jfern Mar 2016 #40

The Republican establishment is impotent. nt geek tragedy Mar 2016 #41

Who knows what can happen if it's a brokered convention jfern Mar 2016 #42

Cruz and Trump will have 90% of the delegates between them geek tragedy Mar 2016 #43

It will also depend on the favorability rating of who she runs against. thesquanderer Mar 2016 #5

Theory of Reasoned Action ... look into it. JoePhilly Mar 2016 #7

Oh, I agree with part of what you say. marew Mar 2016 #31

Newsmax???? karynnj Mar 2016 #44

I think she is winning the primary for three main reasons: Vattel Mar 2016 #10

yep, no Democrats are voting for her because they think she'd do a good job. geek tragedy Mar 2016 #13

Don't put words in my mouth. Vattel Mar 2016 #15

your three reasons why were all about why they weren't voting geek tragedy Mar 2016 #16

I wasn't trying to list all of the reasons why someone might vote for Clinton over Sanders. Vattel Mar 2016 #18

you listed these reasons why she's winning: geek tragedy Mar 2016 #20

I identified what I think are the three MAIN reasons Clinton is winning. Vattel Mar 2016 #24

My nephews are not batshit crazy Art_from_Ark Mar 2016 #14

Guess they are ok with many of us facing deportation, registration or giftedgirl77 Mar 2016 #29

and yet she's kicking Bernie Sanders's ass nt geek tragedy Mar 2016 #11

Yup! You are right on that! marew Mar 2016 #32

In 1964, a lot of us weren't crazy about LBJ DavidDvorkin Mar 2016 #19

They say ignorance is bliss... nt revbones Mar 2016 #26

True, so very true. marew Mar 2016 #39

Let's see what happens after the primaries. Bleacher Creature Mar 2016 #27

Think about that number 53.6 % for a moment. Trust Buster Mar 2016 #30

Favorability with Democrats is another story. yallerdawg Mar 2016 #33

You completely missed the point. Trust Buster Mar 2016 #34

Same with trustworthiness . . And Bernie is at the top in both categories. Think it over. pdsimdars Mar 2016 #35

If memory serves... Blanks Mar 2016 #36