2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Donald Trump can actually beat Hillary in November: Stubborn pundits still refuse to accept it [View all]PATRICK
(12,228 posts)on traditional hardcore political realities- which could change overnight due to a crash in the economy for example, but regardless of all that and how much of a wild card chance Trump has, there are only two people that can stop a Clinton win in November, Hillary or Donald. I think a lot of smart people can script a victory for Trump but little changes in a candidate's overall weakness.
Donald is too big an egotist and overwhelmed ignoramus(an insulting word but rather too accurate to go back to my Thesaurus) to take a very easy possible direction, much less make it stick in a debate without blowing it. In this he ONLY has the advantage of the press supporting the "contest" and their partiality to ignorance in general. This right away undermines any deals any kingmakers or groups might make as they get sucked down by the vortex of a deflating demagogue's blimp. Him they can't trust.
HRC is stable, whatever anyone's beef is with what she is stable about including sticky negativity in her ratings. She starts topping that or gets suckered into arrogance- or desperation then she still would have hard work to do to destroy her chances. Worse candidates than her(I mean in position and appeal) have learned to dig in and win.
Politics is sometimes less stable than war but it seems at the moment she cannot lose unless Trump suddenly "transforms" and convinces those who count(the votes) of a number of key things, like reigning in the rhetoric. of course this will not happen until Trump is in THE position to dictate terms to the GOP. His current demagoguery MIGHT work better in the fall with the general voting public for various reasons, but it is partly because it is a sure thing as of now that he can't succeed that they want to drive him down further. If they thought he had a chance the cravens would be a little more cagey. Not so with Sanders who scares their pockets too much ever to stop criticizing him- and knowing he is not vengeful to our wise and impartial corporate funded critics.
But why should we be biting our nails along with GOP? Why does someone like that have to be the alternate choice and a possible winner for a critical position in world history? Even among the shameless and utterly disgraced GOP is party suicide with or without Trump their only option? No the GOP "Third way" might be for once to shift everything away from the presidency to downticket with some equally massive display of money and hypocrisy. Duck paddling away from the Event Horizon of the Mouth.
Pretty much firm in this (current) estimate by the Trump's recently attempted foreign policy speech- which only a GOP candidate would ever get a second chance to repair.