2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: What lessons do YOU take from the results? [View all]0rganism
(23,927 posts)As Maya Angelou said, "When someone shows you who they are, believe them the
first time." This applies to nations of people as well as individuals.
On Tuesday night I learned some things about who we are. I started the
evening at a Vietnamese noodle shop run by immigrants, and saw the smiles fade
from the faces of staff and customers alike as the results started to come in
from the east coast. My next stop was the Democratic Party of Oregon "victory
party" in Portland, which swung from a hesitantly celebratory atmosphere to
something more resembling a funeral gathering as national results came in.
Educational.
First, and most importantly, I have no idea who my countrymen are. Living in
the Pacific Northwest, I've been blissfully isolated from the whims of white
America, the flyover states, completely out of touch with the true Zeitgeist
of America. Millions upon millions of people who felt let down by the
Democratic president and the institutions he represented, so disappointed they
were willing to vote for the possibility of complete destruction over more of
the same-old. Now they'll get some changes, no question. I lost track of how
the rest of the country rolls, full of boredom, violence, alcohol and
evangelism, and didn't see this coming at all. I misunderstood, and my
extreme disappointment is partly due to my overinflated confidence. This
result is a complete vindication of everything Michael Moore was saying about
the election.
Second, I will never again trust pre-election polls to tell me what my fellow
Americans will choose to do. There is far too much bias and uncertainty
involved in generating the "likely voter" models they use to adjust raw
results. This much is inarguable: Nate Silver's model preserved a high degree
of uncertainty, much moreso than many in the forums were comfortable with, but
his approach has also been thoroughly vindicated. I spent far too much time
browsing his site, looking for confirmation of my own mistaken opinions, when
my co-worker nailed the result by trusting his gut: "Donald Trump will be the
next president." No need for polls if your gut is truly aligned to the spirit
of the people.
Third, the news media helped to create this monster, and we support this
process by continuing to let them sell our eyes and ears to their corporate
sponsors. The fourth estate is now, by and large, quite useless as a safeguard
of democracy, and deserve no attention from anyone. Even a quick perusal of
the news from months ago should have been indicator enough of this outcome;
Trump rallies received excellent coverage, even when they got nasty and violent,
whereas the only topic Hillary got prime coverage for was email scandals,
adding to the common perception of her corruption.
Fourth, the old ways are gone. As has been said more eloquently by others,
Hillary ran a "textbook campaign" against a complete outsider and got rolled
hard. The textbook is useless. Tear it up and start over, and put the
chapter about having a clear populist message near the front this time.
Fifth, we now have proof that racism, sexism, and bullying behavior are not
turnoffs to Americans compared to social justice advocacy, perceived taint
of scandal, and identity politics messaging. Faced with a known bully and
con-artist or an apparently corrupt insider, Americans chose the bully.
That's the bottom-line truth of our current situation. We need to get rid of
any educational materials that suggest bullying those weaker leads to
failure; such materials are dangerously misleading to children and they will
see through such falsehood every day Donald Trump is in office. By promoting
inclusion and common decency as social norms, we appear deceptive to the
perceptive young while alienating the bigoted old.
I will make no grand statements about the future of this country, and will do
my best not to respond with outrage to events before they happen. Meanwhile,
there are people who are and will continue to be hurt greatly by the coming
chaos; as one of the fortunate Oregonians who will be shielded from the worst
of it for a few years, I'll do what I can to help those who are hurting. That
is what I lost track of before, I must not lose it again.