2016 Postmortem

jeff47

(26,549 posts)

132. Independents make up 40% of the electorate.

Mon Nov 30, 2015, 10:01 PM

Nov 2015

Roughly half of them are to the left of the median Republican (and to the right of the Democrats)
Roughly half of them are to the left of the median Democrat.

The first group won't vote for "a Socialist", but you have to keep in mind they consider Clinton a socialist too.

We need the 2nd group, because only 30% of the electorate are Democrats, and we can't win with 30%. Clinton appears to have no plan to attract this group beyond "who else you gonna vote for?". Which didn't do so well in 2000, 2004, 2010 or 2014.

Her history is to "run to the center", which won't work when the voters she needs are currently to her left.

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Unfortunately it's a fact, some voters will not support Clinton if she is Democratic nominee [View all] Cheese Sandwich Nov 2015 OP

Democrats will step up and vote, the DINO may or may not. Thinkingabout Nov 2015 #1

It takes a DINO to vote for a DINO Loudestlib Nov 2015 #42

Maybe so, I am a Democrat who will be supporting Hillary Clinton in the Thinkingabout Nov 2015 #45

Once again you got the highly prized (for some) #1 response spot. It must take some rhett o rick Nov 2015 #95

Too bad only 33% of registered voters TM99 Dec 2015 #151

DINO's are people that call themselves Democrats but agree with Republicons on many issues. rhett o rick Dec 2015 #209

That is bound to be the case regardless of which candidate. Xipe Totec Nov 2015 #2

Just like Dean voters didn't vote for Kerry? brooklynite Nov 2015 #3

I find that hard to believe. I know a lot of people here in Arkansas would have voted LiberalArkie Nov 2015 #30

I would think that some Arkansas voters would have preferred Hillary Art_from_Ark Nov 2015 #58

I think that is most of the south, the reason for the Southern Strategy, so that LiberalArkie Nov 2015 #62

I think brooklynite is being sarcastic there.Dean is a Democrat and so were his enthusiastic workers Hekate Nov 2015 #100

I was for Dean also, but did the Kerry thing anyway. The Democratic party really LiberalArkie Nov 2015 #104

Exactly. BlueMTexpat Dec 2015 #155

Amen Hekate Dec 2015 #212

Walker Bragman is not alone. floriduck Nov 2015 #4

...and mine. n/t Chan790 Nov 2015 #19

I am 67 and I feel almost like that, but I will vote for HRC anyway. I really disliked LiberalArkie Nov 2015 #31

real mature enid602 Nov 2015 #5

seriously? roguevalley Nov 2015 #26

yea seriously that attitude is seriously childish - saturnsring Nov 2015 #48

No, you really don't get it. Chef Eric Nov 2015 #73

No it doesn't. She gets her donations from people like me. upaloopa Nov 2015 #107

Here is a link to a list of Clinton's top contributors. Chef Eric Nov 2015 #111

+1 cui bono Nov 2015 #134

Chef, you hit that nail on the head. Hepburn Dec 2015 #181

Thank you Hepburn. Chef Eric Dec 2015 #202

Nail...hammer...you did it again! Hepburn Dec 2015 #211

Exactly. arikara Dec 2015 #186

K&R. Bookmarked for later. eom Betty Karlson Nov 2015 #6

And a lot of them will ismnotwasm Nov 2015 #7

Oh yes indeed retrowire Nov 2015 #74

this is true of any candidate JI7 Nov 2015 #8

It is however more true of some candidates Vincardog Dec 2015 #185

These voters may change their mind when they see the GOP nominee Gothmog Nov 2015 #9

Nope. They are looking to vote for someone. Not against someone. jeff47 Nov 2015 #117

they've seen ALL of them ibegurpard Dec 2015 #146

Post removed Post removed Nov 2015 #10

What a disgusting comment. It should and probably will be alerted on. nt Live and Learn Nov 2015 #12

Advocating not voting helps who? JaneyVee Nov 2015 #14

That has nothing to do with your disgusting comment and does not excuse it. Live and Learn Nov 2015 #15

Regarding your now hidden comment comradebillyboy Nov 2015 #28

So am I ... 1StrongBlackMan Nov 2015 #32

Nailed it. nt MeNMyVolt Nov 2015 #140

Same. Starry Messenger Nov 2015 #64

Ditto redstateblues Nov 2015 #94

Yep. n/t MeNMyVolt Nov 2015 #141

Where is anyone advocating not voting? bvf Nov 2015 #79

You don't vote, don't complain NYCButterfinger Nov 2015 #11

Exactly. Thinkingabout Nov 2015 #49

it seems like a lot of bernie supporters like to complain taught_me_patience Dec 2015 #173

As one that has registered many of them, I agree. nt Live and Learn Nov 2015 #13

No matter how many loyalty oaths I personally ibegurpard Nov 2015 #16

If a person was a child during the Bush years, I can see why they'd be spoiled by Starry Messenger Nov 2015 #17

Well said. Thank you. nt Bleacher Creature Dec 2015 #208

I would never change my vote... NCTraveler Nov 2015 #18

Its not the republicans that can be swayed for the dem party Cassiopeia Nov 2015 #125

There's a very simple solution to your candidate being outvoted mythology Nov 2015 #20

because more Democratic voter's prefer her message right now FlatBaroque Nov 2015 #21

If more Democratic voters do indeed prefer Clinton, then that vindicates my decision Maedhros Nov 2015 #23

you won't be missed nt comradebillyboy Nov 2015 #29

I don't expect to be missed. Maedhros Nov 2015 #41

Then you cant be a Woman or Gay...or Black... randys1 Nov 2015 #84

? Loudestlib Dec 2015 #145

You are either intentionally misreading what I am saying or what I am not sure. randys1 Dec 2015 #170

Sounds like another Naderite redstateblues Nov 2015 #127

Farewell. riversedge Nov 2015 #36

Bye-bye. Don't let the door hit ya. Hekate Nov 2015 #103

Here is my question to you: truedelphi Nov 2015 #33

Exactly - and by promoting same old same old HRC bread_and_roses Nov 2015 #53

What gets me is that the ones that haven't suffered must at least know a few people that have A Simple Game Nov 2015 #101

I have been as bewildered as you have. truedelphi Nov 2015 #116

DU seems to be contaminated more and more with the type of person you recall from the past. A Simple Game Nov 2015 #121

+1. n/t 1StrongBlackMan Nov 2015 #34

Very few states will be "in play". bvar22 Nov 2015 #22

California may be the deciding factor in next year's primary election cycle. Major Hogwash Nov 2015 #27

California has over 67 voter Registrar Officials, truedelphi Nov 2015 #38

Yes, because all Democrats and Independents will rush to vote for Sanders. Beacool Nov 2015 #24

Please don't ignore history. Historically speaking, truedelphi Nov 2015 #44

Here, here! floriduck Nov 2015 #50

Not to be petty, but it's "hear, hear". Beacool Dec 2015 #152

This! yuiyoshida Nov 2015 #68

+ 100 Jackilope Nov 2015 #75

Well said, truedelphi. nt Chef Eric Nov 2015 #80

So in your 40% where will these people go? rpannier Nov 2015 #88

How the hell would I know where these people will go? truedelphi Nov 2015 #93

If voting against the Republican motivated them, this OP wouldn't exist. jeff47 Nov 2015 #120

"Voting against worse" is not "insanity" thucythucy Dec 2015 #183

Yes, it is insanity. Because it means a slow loss of all those rights you are concerned about jeff47 Dec 2015 #184

I doubt any single candidate can "fix our problems" thucythucy Dec 2015 #187

Finding a "Warm, Purple place" to work with Republicans requires giving up something. jeff47 Dec 2015 #189

"You've had forty years..." thucythucy Dec 2015 #192

Yes, you have had forty years. jeff47 Dec 2015 #195

I have no idea what you're on about. Really, I don't. thucythucy Dec 2015 #204

They don't vote! ibegurpard Dec 2015 #147

Do write-in votes count? Major Hogwash Nov 2015 #25

Yes write-ins count ... But they don't count for electing the President you want, though ... 1StrongBlackMan Nov 2015 #37

If the majority of the voters cast write-in votes for a person who is not the nominee . . . Major Hogwash Nov 2015 #46

If ifs were skiffs, none of us would have to swim ... 1StrongBlackMan Nov 2015 #51

Weak. Major Hogwash Nov 2015 #56

Okay. n/t 1StrongBlackMan Nov 2015 #128

You are an odd duck alright, suggesting that a write in candidate probably wont win randys1 Nov 2015 #86

Stockholm Syndrome ... 1StrongBlackMan Nov 2015 #131

I don't think you 2 know how the Electoral College actually works. Major Hogwash Dec 2015 #150

I am very well informed about the electoral college and how it works ... 1StrongBlackMan Dec 2015 #161

They are called Idiots, or more commonly ... Republicans. JoePhilly Nov 2015 #35

It's probably also a fact that some voters won't support Sanders if he's the nominee. onenote Nov 2015 #39

I don't want 'Bernie to be my leader'. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Nov 2015 #60

Same thinking runs rampant here in my household. n/t truedelphi Nov 2015 #71

You better hope Bernie is a leader if you want him to get things done. onenote Nov 2015 #92

Excellent post. thucythucy Dec 2015 #188

This message was self-deleted by its author IHateTheGOP Nov 2015 #40

If we actually manage to lose the WH, Women and Gay and Black Americans will die randys1 Nov 2015 #87

Then perhaps you should be coming up with ways to solve this problem jeff47 Nov 2015 #130

And that's exactly why we need to heed the OP and nominate Sanders. He has a much better rhett o rick Dec 2015 #210

Joan WalshSeriously did @salon sponsor a contest to find the dumbest dudebro writing about Hillary riversedge Nov 2015 #43

Some people only care about them damn selves.. not a clue about the Planet. They're so into Cha Dec 2015 #154

It's A Risk The Party Establishment Is Willing To Take, I Guess... WillyT Nov 2015 #47

The topic of this thread gives me hope. Major Hogwash Nov 2015 #61

Depends on just how selfish certain folks are if Hillary is the nominee. randys1 Nov 2015 #89

And I'm Coming To The Realization That It May Just Happen No Matter Who We Elect... WillyT Nov 2015 #91

Sadly Old Codger Nov 2015 #52

And if that happens, the blame will lie squarely on those who chose the unelectable Hillary. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Nov 2015 #63

No, the blame will lie with those BlueMTexpat Dec 2015 #157

It's post like this one Andy823 Nov 2015 #54

People * Want * Change NorthCarolina Nov 2015 #55

This is a conversation best left until after the primary is decided. Agnosticsherbet Nov 2015 #57

I am sure there are some voters that won't support Sanders doc03 Nov 2015 #59

Well... tom_kelly Nov 2015 #65

How did you feel about Gore vs Dubya? Was there a dime's worth of difference between them? Hekate Dec 2015 #214

Those people shouldn't be on this site. Bleacher Creature Nov 2015 #66

They seem to want to take over this site Andy823 Nov 2015 #69

Really scares me. zentrum Nov 2015 #67

Old saying: Don't cut off your nose to spite your face. baldguy Nov 2015 #70

those voters are assholes sharp_stick Nov 2015 #72

Well, there ya go! Le Taz Hot Dec 2015 #160

ONLY 68% of Iowa Democrats think Clinton is trustworthy Perogie Nov 2015 #76

I know some of them. 7962 Nov 2015 #77

I hope they at least SHOW UP and vote on the state and local elections n/t arcane1 Nov 2015 #78

That's What's Ironic... I Always Vote, And It's Usually For Down Ballot Candidates And Propositions WillyT Nov 2015 #82

I wouldn't count on it. jeff47 Nov 2015 #114

It is also a fact, many will run away instead of voting for a Socialist. Meh. seabeyond Nov 2015 #81

non-Sanders voters I mention her to inevitably say "erch--isn't there anyone running against her?" MisterP Nov 2015 #83

I will be joining Hillary & Bernie... Mike Nelson Nov 2015 #85

This is obviously a desparation OP. Bernie can't win with just talking points so you upaloopa Nov 2015 #90

So? We've always known the misogynists in the party won't vote for her, among others. pnwmom Nov 2015 #96

And since there are misogynists that will not vote for a woman, no woman should run. seabeyond Nov 2015 #108

Yup. That seems to be the idea. There are too many men who loathe and despise her. pnwmom Nov 2015 #115

Yup. Women will once again, carry the day. My prediction. seabeyond Nov 2015 #119

Democrats that don't support the nominee Tommy2Tone Nov 2015 #97

Most of us care more about the less fortunate than she does. Or any other DINO. RiverLover Dec 2015 #158

Yeah, they're called Republicans. This may shock you, but... Hekate Nov 2015 #98

Actually, the 40% unaffiliated are roughly split in half. jeff47 Nov 2015 #122

Why buy the cow? Tired of my vote being taken for granted, Rebkeh Nov 2015 #99

Why buy the cow? WTF? That makes absolutely no sense but to throw out a disgusting sexist slur. seabeyond Nov 2015 #109

I guess I showed my age? Rebkeh Nov 2015 #113

Yes a sexist statement given to our girls. Getting sex? Why marry her. seabeyond Nov 2015 #118

Yes, so you get my intended meaning. Rebkeh Nov 2015 #133

Clinton is the top 15% most progressive in congress. She has devoted a life to progressive seabeyond Nov 2015 #137

That she's in the top 15% says more Rebkeh Nov 2015 #138

Facts really do not count in some argument. I can't do anything for that one. seabeyond Dec 2015 #143

No, you can't Rebkeh Dec 2015 #148

"Because I am not making a factual claim" Trust me, I get that. I prefer to deal in facts. seabeyond Dec 2015 #149

We can't lose the supreme court gollygee Nov 2015 #102

Being of the older persuasion, I'll probably vote for Mrs. Clinton Jack Rabbit Nov 2015 #105

I will never vote for Hillary. Scruffy1 Nov 2015 #106

"106. I will never vote for Hillary." So what! seabeyond Nov 2015 #110

Yes. Most Republicans will not. MineralMan Nov 2015 #112

The real Democratic base is 30% of the electorate. You don't win with 30%. (nt) jeff47 Nov 2015 #124

You are correct. Many Democrats and nearly all Republicans will not vote for her. Fair or not, GoneFishin Nov 2015 #123

You wouldn't ... NanceGreggs Nov 2015 #126

There are plenty of independents that won't vote for redstateblues Nov 2015 #129

Independents make up 40% of the electorate. jeff47 Nov 2015 #132

Hillary's supporters are under the bizarre misapprehension that she only has to win the Primary. Romulox Nov 2015 #135

Why is it almost always Bernie supporters Nonhlanhla Nov 2015 #136

It's because Clinton is to the right of Sanders. Chef Eric Nov 2015 #139

I know she is somewhat to the right of Bernie Nonhlanhla Dec 2015 #156

Your metric only counts bills that actually made it to the floor. jeff47 Dec 2015 #177

Not when the Supreme Court is at stake Nonhlanhla Dec 2015 #200

"Again, it is NOT something I would ever encourage." MeNMyVolt Nov 2015 #142

I will (and have never) in my life supported a presidential candidate who makes blatant (or subtle) Liberal_Stalwart71 Dec 2015 #144

Some get the red out Dec 2015 #153

That is exactly what I'm hearing from millennials Le Taz Hot Dec 2015 #159

In 2014, voter turnout was 36.4%. If Hillary is our 2016 nominee it will be higher, much higher .... Scuba Dec 2015 #162

I think 2016 turnout will be similar to 2012. DCBob Dec 2015 #164

I predict that if she's our candidate, we'll get clobbered. The right will turn out to vote ... Scuba Dec 2015 #165

I disagree. DCBob Dec 2015 #166

The left will turn out to vote against the Republicans, true. It won't be enough. Scuba Dec 2015 #167

I believe it will. DCBob Dec 2015 #168

Let's help Bernie win the primary, then we'll win the GE and have some coattails! Scuba Dec 2015 #169

"real" Democrats are 30% of the electorate. jeff47 Dec 2015 #179

Hillary is very strong candidate for the general. DCBob Dec 2015 #190

You're doing a great job of also not realizing a problem exists. jeff47 Dec 2015 #191

As I said in a previous post I think this election is going to be much like 2012. DCBob Dec 2015 #193

You mean when a popular incumbent lost half his margin of victory? jeff47 Dec 2015 #197

He still won easily. DCBob Dec 2015 #199

I agree totally. Major Hogwash Dec 2015 #172

We will hope at that time Bernie will step up and help to convince those voters of their fallacy. DCBob Dec 2015 #163

Especially when we're told, in effect, that he can convince Congress to do his will. randome Dec 2015 #171

So says the millennial from East Hampton postatomic Dec 2015 #174

I'd vote for a dog turn over Ted Cruz JEB Dec 2015 #175

This is indisputable, Cheese Sandwich. Thing is, how many? merrily Dec 2015 #176

JeffCo Colorado is my county pinebox Dec 2015 #178

I love knowing that. Mine is Suffolk County Massachusetts, which will merrily Dec 2015 #180

Did you know that 68% of your posts are anti Hillary? Sheepshank Dec 2015 #182

Here's why Cheese Sandwich Dec 2015 #194

disingenious....and a pethetic set of reasoning for not supporting your candidate. nt Sheepshank Dec 2015 #198

https://www.google.com/#q=fallujah+depleted+uranium Cheese Sandwich Dec 2015 #205

Well they won't be posting here MaggieD Dec 2015 #196

Agreed. Bleacher Creature Dec 2015 #206

Yep. MaggieD Dec 2015 #207

The question to pose, then, is this: randome Dec 2015 #201

Some? Lots. earthside Dec 2015 #203

I dont know anyone who would vote for Bernie Sanders. moobu2 Dec 2015 #213

What are you thinking? Your country has only two parties! One will fuck the US akbacchus_BC Dec 2015 #215

If Mrs. Clinton is the nominee, do you really have a choice? akbacchus_BC Dec 2015 #216