DNC boss says candidates to be involved in debate lottery

[karynnj]

13. I think the probability of them being together is one half using either method

I was not sure many would understand if I said stratified sample, I just described it. I suspect that if they had to do it again, they would change the criteria. However, it is hard to balance the value of an open party willing to at least hear people with that level of support and having debates where candidates have enough space to differentiate themselves.

That said, I can not think of any ultimate nominee who won because they blew out the early debates. IN 2008, many pundits thought Biden had the best answers, but he gained no traction. Obama greatly improved as the primaries went on, but for all his eloquence and charm, that was never one if his strongest abilities.

In 2004, though Kerry was always a very accomplished debater, he only gained traction after he won Iowa mostly based on retail politics, talking one to one to many voters.

GWB was terrible at debating, easily beaten by Kerry, but on content also beaten by Gore. McCain did not win because of debating, but his life story.