The 2020 Election Will Be Decided By The Independent Voters

[Garrett78]

12. "Independent" is hardly synonymous with "middle."

Last edited Thu Mar 7, 2019, 09:40 AM - Edit history (1)

Studies show that the vast majority of so-called independents are highly partisan but simply like calling themselves "independent." Today's "independents" are, on average, more in favor of one party over the other than were strong partisans in the 1970s. And an "independent" who leans Democratic is more likely to vote Democratic than a weak Democrat. Independents are, however, slightly less reliable voters (i.e., they don't turn out as faithfully as party-affiliated voters, which would help explain why you see swings in terms of "independent" support from one election to the next). Numerous articles can be found online regarding the myth of the "independent" voter. I've read several and the points I just made comprise a summary of those articles.

Also a myth, of course, is the notion that white economic anxiety (I guess POC don't experience economic anxiety) is what drove support for Trump.

The idea that we must nominate a moderate or centrist or white male or someone who bashes identity politics is deeply flawed. We need to focus on turning out our base. There will inevitably be those who voted for Trump or didn't vote at all in 2016 who will vote Dem in 2020 (they've become disenchanted or were blinded by hatred for Clinton or didn't think they needed to bother voting or they voted 3rd party or whatever). Simply nominating someone who contrasts sharply with Trump and doesn't carry a lot of baggage will get those folks to vote for our nominee. It would be foolish to run a campaign or choose a nominee centered around flipping Trump voters. Again, turning out the base is key. Increasing POC and youth turnout (as compared to 2016) is what will rule the day. Personally, I think a Harris-O'Rourke ticket is our best bet.

Charisma and youthfulness are much more important than we'd like to think. Our last 5 Democratic presidents averaged 48 years of age upon taking office.

Regarding the much talked about trio of states (PA, MI and WI), let's understand that many factors were at play in 2016 that simply won't be at play in 2020 (not the least of which is the fact that both candidates were historically unpopular with net approval ratings well below zero). We dominated those 3 states from 1992 through 2012, and made gains in those states in 2018. I'm fairly confident we'll win all 3 in 2020...and force Republicans to spend a lot of resources on defending NC, FL, AZ and GA.

There are numerous party insiders who disagree with what many around here take to be conventional wisdom. Read this: https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/campaigns/article226007090.html