Nate is right.... and Bernie has almost no shot of winning the Dem nomination (Reply #11)

In the discussion thread: Nate Silver is a joke [View all]

Response to Hassin Bin Sober (Original post)

Tue Oct 1, 2019, 01:03 PM

11. Nate is right.... and Bernie has almost no shot of winning the Dem nomination

he has a hard ceiling of about 20% of the Democratic primary electorate.... and it doesn't matter how much money he raises.... he has 100% name recognition, and there are no new voters for him to get that he doesn't already have.

He will languish between 2nd and 3rd place in every poll for the remainder of the nomination fight.

Though Buttigieg is who I'm leaning toward.... this nomination is actually Warren's to lose. She is the only one really increasing her share of the primary electorate.

Biden and Sanders have pretty much hit their ceilings.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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Replies to this discussion thread

29 replies	Author	Time	Post
Nate Silver is a joke [View all]	Hassin Bin Sober	Oct 2019	OP
Silver is right	Renew Deal	Oct 2019	#1
You're correct about that.	NurseJackie	Oct 2019	#7
The solid Democratic base of all colors and ethnicities isn't with him.	Hortensis	Oct 2019	#19
Can't read it ???	left-of-center2012	Oct 2019	#2
Click on each section	TheRickles	Oct 2019	#4
Silver's a solid pollster	bucolic_frolic	Oct 2019	#3
He's not a pollster at all	jcgoldie	Oct 2019	#5
He's a terrible political analyst	sharedvalues	Oct 2019	#28
Silver is letting his political preferences cloud his judgement	ritapria	Oct 2019	#6
Those comments would seem to be in conflict but I think they are both correct in the examples given.	honest.abe	Oct 2019	#8
I see no contradiction there.	BlueMississippi	Oct 2019	#9
"taking back the House" vs Presidential elections.	Amimnoch	Oct 2019	#10
Yes. This. Thank you.	NurseJackie	Oct 2019	#13
Nate is right.... and Bernie has almost no shot of winning the Dem nomination	scheming daemons	Oct 2019	#11
Great observations, descriptions and explanations.	NurseJackie	Oct 2019	#14
"Disqualifying...!!!"	LanternWaste	Oct 2019	#12
I have found that he often delivers great analysis.	TidalWave46	Oct 2019	#15
The principles behind Primaries and General Elections are different.	brooklynite	Oct 2019	#16
Congressional and Presidential campaigns are two different things.	TwilightZone	Oct 2019	#17
This message was self-deleted by its author	elocs	Oct 2019	#18
The graphic is illegible. What's the current outrage about?	Politicub	Oct 2019	#20
Can't you just be outraged without asking questions?	TidalWave46	Oct 2019	#22
Do you need a tutorial on links and cursors?	Hassin Bin Sober	Oct 2019	#25
Jacobin	Celerity	Oct 2019	#21
Nate Silver triggers the Sanders camp. Bigly...	comradebillyboy	Oct 2019	#23
sometimes I don't like what Nate Silver says....	Skid Rogue	Oct 2019	#24
The boy genious who never saw Trump coming.	BeckyDem	Oct 2019	#26
Nate Silver is mean.	lapucelle	Oct 2019	#27
I agree with Nate	Gothmog	Oct 2019	#29

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