Excellent analysis! Thank you. (Reply #9)

In the discussion thread: Here's why Hillary won the primaries on her second try, but Bernie probably won't. [View all]

Mon Dec 30, 2019, 06:47 AM

9. Excellent analysis! Thank you.

Here's why Hillary won the primaries on her second try, but Bernie probably won't.

The first time Hillary ran, she ran against Obama. Many of us would have been happy with either one as President. (I didn't even go to the caucuses that year because I liked both of them equally.) Then Obama, after he won, made her Secretary of State -- giving us all even more reason to support her next time. And she waited to run again till Obama had finished his two terms, so the voters who preferred him didn't have to choose between them.

Bernie lost to Hillary by 4 million votes. To win a majority this second time, he's going to have to get millions of votes from Hillary people. How many of them are going to pick the man who is STILL railing against the "Democratic establishment" and against Democrats like Hillary? If he only wins a plurality, then the winner will be chosen at the convention -- the electors will choose the nominee in subsequent ballot(s). What are the odds that the electors will choose the candidate with a minority of votes who rails against the "establishment"?

Which is more likely? That voters/electors who preferred Hillary will pick Sanders this time -- or that they'll pick Warren, Biden, Klobuchar, etc.?

Excellent analysis! Thank you.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to OP Alert abuse Link to post in-thread

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum

Replies to this discussion thread

139 replies	Author	Time	Post
Here's why Hillary won the primaries on her second try, but Bernie probably won't. [View all]	pnwmom	Dec 2019	OP
He has to earn those votes. Feet must be held to the fire.	betsuni	Dec 2019	#1
re: "Give details and name names" - you think THAT would be better? That would be more divisive!	thesquanderer	Dec 2019	#12
Great post	TheFarseer	Dec 2019	#129
I was very happy that Obama won the primaries	janterry	Dec 2019	#2
How will Bernie rise to the top when he's alienated so many Hillary voters, and they	pnwmom	Dec 2019	#4
I've written before	janterry	Dec 2019	#40
Similar experience, but never BS.	Amimnoch	Dec 2019	#49
It's true	janterry	Dec 2019	#54
I'm in that crowd	Fresh_Start	Dec 2019	#78
+1!	Cha	Dec 2019	#119
Too bad for them...future Republicans or non-voters are what they are... get their way or	Demsrule86	Dec 2019	#81
Most of the young folks I know are either for Elizabeth or Bernie.	Scotch-Irish	Dec 2019	#106
Just goes to show...	radical noodle	Dec 2019	#108
I know a ton of never sanders types	Gothmog	Dec 2019	#115
The same could be said for BS and black voters, especially black women voters who are the...	Tarheel_Dem	Dec 2019	#135
This is something I've never understood...	Mike Nelson	Dec 2019	#3
Not only that	DownriverDem	Dec 2019	#33
"Professional grown-ups"	brutus smith	Dec 2019	#39
That's not what happened in 2008.	lapucelle	Dec 2019	#59
My post said...	Mike Nelson	Dec 2019	#61
Sanders cannot beat Trump - I believe that also about Warren and a few others	Pachamama	Dec 2019	#5
well they didnt last time so why should they this time..	samnsara	Dec 2019	#31
Sadly...	Pachamama	Dec 2019	#69
Bernie CAN win!	James48	Dec 2019	#6
No he can't. He clearly hates the Democratic party...	NurseJackie	Dec 2019	#10
He can	melman	Dec 2019	#20
Haaaaaa!	NurseJackie	Dec 2019	#27
No we do NOT know that sanders can win	Gothmog	Dec 2019	#53
No we don't know it because it isn't true...and I think he knows he won't win...hence the attacks	Demsrule86	Dec 2019	#83
Nope. Not really.	ehrnst	Dec 2019	#122
So he votes with democratic senators 99% because he hates them...	Joe941	Dec 2019	#113
That's a myth. He does NOT vote with the Democrats 99% of the time.	NurseJackie	Dec 2019	#114
Where do you get that statistic? I hear it a lot, but never hear the source.	ehrnst	Dec 2019	#120
How will he appeal to people who preferred Hillary to him in 2016? What has he done	pnwmom	Dec 2019	#11
So you're saying people like you won't vote for Bernie if he wins the nomination?	brutus smith	Dec 2019	#42
No. What pnwmom is saying is that he WILL NOT win the nomination without...	NurseJackie	Dec 2019	#52
Attempted pivot to a strawman...	ehrnst	Dec 2019	#123
No, it's how can Bernie win the nomination without winning over	treestar	Dec 2019	#125
+1000.	ehrnst	Dec 2019	#139
No	justie18	Dec 2019	#13
This scenario seems all too likely. Bernie doesn't seem to be making any effort at all	pnwmom	Dec 2019	#24
Hillary didn't concede to Obama right away.	brutus smith	Dec 2019	#43
But	justie18	Dec 2019	#58
Hillary supporters wanted a roll call at the convention in 2008.	brutus smith	Dec 2019	#65
That's not what happened at the 2008 convention.	lapucelle	Dec 2019	#66
As I correctly said she finally gave the acclamation speech.	brutus smith	Dec 2019	#70
Well	justie18	Dec 2019	#73
Actually, HRC put out word within 24 hours that she would be suspending her campaign.	StevieM	Dec 2019	#74
It's incorrect to say that HRC "finally" gave the acclamation speech.	lapucelle	Dec 2019	#75
By historical standards any race that close would have been expected to go to the convention.	StevieM	Dec 2019	#85
Clinton Ends Campaign With Clear Call to Elect Obama	lapucelle	Dec 2019	#89
The degree of rank misinformation that's floating around on this thread is troubling. N/T	lapucelle	Dec 2019	#90
And no matter how many times it's debunked it goes right back to being bunked.	betsuni	Dec 2019	#127
No. Obama clinched the nomination on June 3, Hillary decided to concede the next day and met	betsuni	Dec 2019	#126
I remember 2008 quite well.	lapucelle	Dec 2019	#62
Exactly!	justie18	Dec 2019	#76
NO HILLARY DID NOT & I'LL NEVER FORGET THE REASONING SHE GAVE FOR NOT CONCEDING EARLIER!!	InAbLuEsTaTe	Dec 2019	#105
She decided to concede the day after Obama got the nomination, met with him the day after that,	betsuni	Dec 2019	#128
So? Red herring...	ehrnst	Dec 2019	#124
but what has he done? and what makes him more real?	samnsara	Dec 2019	#32
Do you know his background?	DownriverDem	Dec 2019	#34
I believe this, too	janterry	Dec 2019	#44
nobody wins when the party is divided. bernie is a great divider. and talk about baggage.	mopinko	Dec 2019	#50
He's got a fraction of the support he had four years ago, and as he liked to say....	George II	Dec 2019	#63
DAMN RIGHT BERNIE CAN WIN!!!	InAbLuEsTaTe	Dec 2019	#98
It's you that needs to "wake up."	ehrnst	Dec 2019	#121
Interestingly, the naderites, the PUMAs rioting for HRC, and	Hortensis	Dec 2019	#7
I doubt sanderistas are the same people as PUMAs	JonLP24	Dec 2019	#101
So did I, and Hillary as well. These people think differently	Hortensis	Dec 2019	#111
I am a proud member of the Democratic Party	Gothmog	Dec 2019	#8
Yep	DownriverDem	Dec 2019	#35
So you're another one who won't vote for Bernie if he's the nominee?	brutus smith	Dec 2019	#45
No one said that...they ...we because I include myself will not vote for Sanders in the	Demsrule86	Dec 2019	#84
Excellent analysis! Thank you.	NurseJackie	Dec 2019	#9
Hillary lost to trump	RandiFan1290	Dec 2019	#14
Please explain what Bernie has done since then to reach out to people who preferred Hillary,	pnwmom	Dec 2019	#15
You can throw out your numbers all you want	RandiFan1290	Dec 2019	#19
If Bernie can't get several million Hillary voters to pick him instead of Warren, Biden,	pnwmom	Dec 2019	#21
So what?	RandiFan1290	Dec 2019	#23
+1000	Demsrule86	Dec 2019	#87
You can't win if you can't get people to fill in the top of the ballot.	floppyboo	Dec 2019	#100
Since seniors dying is your stated reason for fewer	R B Garr	Dec 2019	#109
I think of his stent proceedure as a restorative thing - he's back better than before	floppyboo	Dec 2019	#130
Since you are so morbid about Clinton voters,	R B Garr	Dec 2019	#133
She kicked Trump's ass. She lost to Comey.	StevieM	Dec 2019	#77
THE POINT IS HILLARY LOST TWICE... IT'S TIME TO MOVE ON!!!	InAbLuEsTaTe	Dec 2019	#94
If people feel the need to keep pointing out that she lost then they are not really moving on.	StevieM	Dec 2019	#99
Thanks 4 your thoughtful response Stevie. I hear what youre sayin, tho I disagree w/u on some points	InAbLuEsTaTe	Dec 2019	#102
I will never get over the 16 general election loss...and I won't support Sanders in a primary...only	Demsrule86	Dec 2019	#86
YESSSSSSSS!!!!!	InAbLuEsTaTe	Dec 2019	#93
He doesn't have the support	DownriverDem	Dec 2019	#37
Get over it	RandiFan1290	Dec 2019	#47
SERIOUSLY!!!! BUT IM VOTING FOR BERNIE, ALONG WITH MOST OF MY FRIENDS AND FAMILY... CANT WAIT!!!	InAbLuEsTaTe	Dec 2019	#96
Nobody is doing that.	NurseJackie	Dec 2019	#41
Will you support Bernie if he's the nominee?	brutus smith	Dec 2019	#46
Ask me again if he becomes our party's nominee.	NurseJackie	Dec 2019	#51
That's the difference between you and me.	brutus smith	Dec 2019	#71
I WILL!!!	InAbLuEsTaTe	Dec 2019	#97
They are all fine with me.	safeinOhio	Dec 2019	#16
Suburban women aren't a big group for Bernie, but they were for Hillary. nt	pnwmom	Dec 2019	#17
Dems that voted but not for President	safeinOhio	Dec 2019	#18
Jill Stein voters swung the election. Comey swung the election.	pnwmom	Dec 2019	#22
They played the EC like a fiddle	Freddie	Dec 2019	#26
Bernie or Bust folks who ARE too stupid to see this possibility	dansolo	Dec 2019	#36
That ought to bring them into the fold.	safeinOhio	Dec 2019	#60
Are you so pissed that you'd	safeinOhio	Dec 2019	#134
No, I'll vote blue no matter who	Freddie	Dec 2019	#136
That is the most important thing.	safeinOhio	Dec 2019	#137
I don't hate Bernie	Freddie	Dec 2019	#138
indeed. And where are Podesta and Mook now? nt	floppyboo	Dec 2019	#131
There are more suburban women who support Bernie than you think...	InAbLuEsTaTe	Dec 2019	#104
I bet a good number of people are ABB	Renew Deal	Dec 2019	#25
Are you saying that if Sanders is the nominee	Maggiemayhem	Dec 2019	#67
I'm talking about the primary	Renew Deal	Dec 2019	#79
im still waiting for someone to tell me any of his accomplishments..	samnsara	Dec 2019	#28
Google is your friend	brutus smith	Dec 2019	#48
We have looked and cannot find such accomplishments	Gothmog	Dec 2019	#55
That's what happens with a "no compromise" and all-or-nothing attitude.	NurseJackie	Dec 2019	#57
i dont know any HRC voters who will support BS this time around...	samnsara	Dec 2019	#29
Including me.	NurseJackie	Dec 2019	#56
Includes me too...only a general...	Demsrule86	Dec 2019	#88
I DO!!!!	InAbLuEsTaTe	Dec 2019	#95
Same here	Gothmog	Dec 2019	#116
There's only 1 way I would vote for Sanders in the primary	MarianJack	Dec 2019	#30
Warren will win Clinton voters; a Warren/Harris ticket will energize the democratic base; a woman	RestoreAmerica2020	Dec 2019	#38
Warren's missteps with her MFA plan has hurt her	Gothmog	Dec 2019	#117
You can't compare Hillary to Obama, who was one of the greatest Presidents of all time!!	InAbLuEsTaTe	Dec 2019	#64
Wait...what? "You can't compare HRC to President Obama or BS"? Why not? N/T	lapucelle	Dec 2019	#68
Some just cannot refrain from making needless attacks against Hillary	Hav	Dec 2019	#110
The people who say Bernie can't win the nomination	ritapria	Dec 2019	#72
Yeah, they're not worried at all.	Hassin Bin Sober	Dec 2019	#82
It is laughable...	InAbLuEsTaTe	Dec 2019	#92
Of course they're worried, why else would they spend SO much time & effort attackin Bernie?!?!	InAbLuEsTaTe	Dec 2019	#91
I am still hoping that sanders fails to get the 300 delegates needed to put his name into play	Gothmog	Dec 2019	#118
Pretty much right on target! K&R	MineralMan	Dec 2019	#80
Bernie won't win the nomination because he's got support from only 6% of black voters...	SidDithers	Dec 2019	#103
Polling Comparison:	brooklynite	Dec 2019	#107
Wow, that's quite a nosedive for Bernie.	R B Garr	Dec 2019	#112
This makes me smile	Gothmog	Dec 2019	#132

Edit History

Please login to view edit histories.